Equity Analyst, Event-driven, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Equity Analyst, Event-driven

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

The Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) calculates Free-Float Weight (FFW) for each listed company and uses this value as a key component of TOPIX Index Calculation. For companies with "low liquidity" the FFW will be multiplied by a fixed liquidity factor of 0.75 to derive the final FFW used for index calculation. This affects both TSE-1 incumbents and new entrants (depending on the date of entry). Every April, the application of this liquidity factor is reviewed by the TSE for all TSE1 constituents. Last April, 71 constituents saw their liquidity factors removed causing an increase in their respective FFWs used for index calculation resulting in a TOPIX upweight.This situation opens up interesting opportunities for a basket trade. Below is a discussion regarding the key details of TSE's FFW Calculation Methodology and the candidate stocks which could potentially experience a change in the application of the liquidity factor (including some surprisingly big names).

The Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) calculates Free-Float Weight (FFW) for each listed company and uses this value as a key component of TOPIX Index Calculation. For companies with "low liquidity" the FFW will be multiplied by a fixed liquidity factor of 0.75 to derive the final FFW used for index calculation. This affects both TSE-1 incumbents and new entrants (depending on the date of entry). Every April, the application of this liquidity factor is reviewed by the TSE for all TSE1 constituents. Last April, 71 constituents saw their liquidity factors removed causing an increase in their respective FFWs used for index calculation resulting in a TOPIX upweight.This situation opens up interesting opportunities for a basket trade. Below is a discussion regarding the key details of TSE's FFW Calculation Methodology and the candidate stocks which could potentially experience a change in the application of the liquidity factor (including some surprisingly big names).   

TOPIX Index Upweights: The Big April Basket 2021

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  Higher Yields and Lower Equities as Major US Indices were lower; Focus on Jackson Hole Speech from Powell; Fed Collins Hints at hikes; Boeing Supply Issues. </li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futures -1.9% vs Cash; USDJPY 145.8; Fukushima Water Release prompts China Backlash; Gasoline reachs 15 year high - govt considers subsidies; Boon from Yen for Japan Majors. </li>
<li>JAPAN X: Farewell to lifetime employment ?   Japan's workers are embracing job hopping. This is driving higher wages as labor get reallocated to higher value added roles.</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  Higher Yields and Lower Equities as Major US Indices were lower; Focus on Jackson Hole Speech from Powell; Fed Collins Hints at hikes; Boeing Supply Issues. 
JAPAN. NKY Futures -1.9% vs Cash; USDJPY 145.8; Fukushima Water Release prompts China Backlash; Gasoline reachs 15 year high - govt considers subsidies; Boon from Yen for Japan Majors. 
JAPAN X: Farewell to lifetime employment ?   Japan's workers are embracing job hopping. This is driving higher wages as labor get reallocated to higher value added roles.


Ohayo Japan| Tech Sold as Yields Take Their Toll; JAPAN X: Tradition Ends-Japan Embraces Job Hopping

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beenos-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18023:1" rel="noopener">Beenos Inc (3328 JP)</a> results beat with revenue at ¥7.2bn (+4.6% vs consensus) and OP of ¥431m (+21.4% vs consensus).</li>
<li>FY22 guidance was raised across Beenos’ core e-commerce businesses due to the favourable impact of the yen depreciation on overseas demand and changes to shipping methods and rates.</li>
<li>What caught our eye the most was Beenos’ decision to gradually realise gains from its VC investments.</li>
</ul>



Beenos Inc (3328 JP) results beat with revenue at ¥7.2bn (+4.6% vs consensus) and OP of ¥431m (+21.4% vs consensus).
FY22 guidance was raised across Beenos’ core e-commerce businesses due to the favourable impact of the yen depreciation on overseas demand and changes to shipping methods and rates.
What caught our eye the most was Beenos’ decision to gradually realise gains from its VC investments.


Beenos Decides to Lock-In Profits from Incubator Investments

<ul>
<li>Monotaro’s 1Q22 topline was broadly in line with expectations but OP overshot consensus and company guidance by ¥355m and ¥396m respectively as SG&amp;A fell short of the plan by ¥435m.</li>
<li>Although the market treated <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/monotaro-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15441:1" rel="noopener">MonotaRO Co Ltd (3064 JP)</a> as a pandemic stock, it has stronger fundamentals than most pandemic winners.</li>
<li>Shares are not cheap enough to be outright bullish but it is still a decent long hedge to short many other low-quality names.</li>
</ul>


Monotaro’s 1Q22 topline was broadly in line with expectations but OP overshot consensus and company guidance by ¥355m and ¥396m respectively as SG&amp;A fell short of the plan by ¥435m.
Although the market treated MonotaRO Co Ltd (3064 JP) as a pandemic stock, it has stronger fundamentals than most pandemic winners.
Shares are not cheap enough to be outright bullish but it is still a decent long hedge to short many other low-quality names.


<ul>
<li>Leading up to the GoTo IPO, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beenos-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18023:1" rel="noopener">Beenos Inc (3328 JP)</a> shares rallied more than 80% to ¥2,364 per share, possibly expecting substantial listing gains from the “conservatively” priced GoTo IPO.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gojek-goto" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo (GOTO IJ)</a> opened around 18% above its IPO price on 11th April 2022, but Beenos fell by around 7% and 8% on 11th and 12th April 2022 respectively.</li>
<li>It may be too late to ride the GoTo IPO rally, but exposure to a high-profile company like GoTo brings visibility, resulting in a much narrower NAV discount.</li>
</ul>


Leading up to the GoTo IPO, Beenos Inc (3328 JP) shares rallied more than 80% to ¥2,364 per share, possibly expecting substantial listing gains from the “conservatively” priced GoTo IPO.

GoTo (GOTO IJ) opened around 18% above its IPO price on 11th April 2022, but Beenos fell by around 7% and 8% on 11th and 12th April 2022 respectively.
It may be too late to ride the GoTo IPO rally, but exposure to a high-profile company like GoTo brings visibility, resulting in a much narrower NAV discount.


Beenos Valuation: SOTP Suggests Plenty of Upside Potential

Japan

Beenos Inc sells various type of merchandise using group-buying method through Internet. The Company's merchandises include fashion goods, brand goods, convenience goods, baby goods, and toiletry goods.

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Beenos Inc (3328 JP)

TOPIX Index Upweights: The Big April Basket 2021

TOPIX does an annual exercise to adjust Liquidity Factor. The time for trades around that is upon us. This insight looks at the best trade around...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Ohayo Japan| Tech Sold as Yields Take Their Toll; JAPAN X: Tradition Ends-Japan Embraces Job Hopping

Higher Yields, Tech Sell Off Ahead of Powell's Speech; NKY Futures -1.9% vs Cash; USDJPY 145.8; Fukushima Water Release prompts China Backlash;...

Mark Chadwick

Beenos Decides to Lock-In Profits from Incubator Investments

We think the realisation of profits from these investments could lead to a higher overall payout (dividend and buybacks), which could bring...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

MonotaRo: Not a Pandemic Stock

With the share price down 51% from the peak at one point, markets discounted MonotaRo alongside the rest of the pandemic stocks, even though the...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Beenos Valuation: SOTP Suggests Plenty of Upside Potential

Although it may be too late to ride the GoTo IPO rally, we think that there’s further upside over the medium-term as exposure to a high-profile...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

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