Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Among many e-commerce names, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/monotaro-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15441:1" rel="noopener">MonotaRO Co Ltd (3064 JP)</a> is one of the most promising with operating profitability predicted to improve by 200 bps to 14.0% by 2023.</li>
<li>Unlike many e-commerce players, the company doesn’t strain itself financially while pursuing revenue growth through expansion.</li>
<li>At 35.8x OP, MonotaRo is not cheap to be outright bullish. However, it is a reasonable long hedge to allow you to short a lot of other names in e-commerce.</li>
</ul>


Among many e-commerce names, MonotaRO Co Ltd (3064 JP) is one of the most promising with operating profitability predicted to improve by 200 bps to 14.0% by 2023.
Unlike many e-commerce players, the company doesn’t strain itself financially while pursuing revenue growth through expansion.
At 35.8x OP, MonotaRo is not cheap to be outright bullish. However, it is a reasonable long hedge to allow you to short a lot of other names in e-commerce.


Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beenos-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18023:1" rel="noopener">Beenos Inc (3328 JP)</a> is a relatively small cross border e-commerce and internet company from Japan with a consolidated GMV of ¥63.2bn in the last four quarters.</li>
<li>The company also runs an incubator platform to create new businesses and invest in startups in emerging regions such as India and South-East Asia.</li>
<li>At 1.3x FY+2 consolidated revenue and 8.2x FY+2 consolidated EBITDA, Beenos may not look exceedingly cheap compared to the internet companies in Japan. However, it is important to note that around 50% of Beenos’ market cap comes from minority investments under its incubator platform (not reflected in consolidated revenue and EBITDA) which effectively halves the above valuation multiples.</li>
<li>Moreover, Beenos has done some extremely successful investments under its incubator program over the years, including Tokopedia and the Indian car sales marketplace Droom. These two investments are expected to have their IPOs soon with significant unrealised gains to early-stage investors like Beenos.</li>
</ul>



Beenos Inc (3328 JP) is a relatively small cross border e-commerce and internet company from Japan with a consolidated GMV of ¥63.2bn in the last four quarters.
The company also runs an incubator platform to create new businesses and invest in startups in emerging regions such as India and South-East Asia.
At 1.3x FY+2 consolidated revenue and 8.2x FY+2 consolidated EBITDA, Beenos may not look exceedingly cheap compared to the internet companies in Japan. However, it is important to note that around 50% of Beenos’ market cap comes from minority investments under its incubator platform (not reflected in consolidated revenue and EBITDA) which effectively halves the above valuation multiples.
Moreover, Beenos has done some extremely successful investments under its incubator program over the years, including Tokopedia and the Indian car sales marketplace Droom. These two investments are expected to have their IPOs soon with significant unrealised gains to early-stage investors like Beenos.


Beenos: NAV Discount to Reach 46% Following GoTo & Droom Valuation Adjustments

Pan-Asia Equity Bottom-up, Wickhams Hill

Lloyd Moffatt

Pan-Asia Equity Bottom-up

<ul><li>We uncover a stake in post-merger Tokopedia-GoJek held by the Japanese e-commerce company Beenos (3328 JP) that, at the slated US$40bn IPO valuation for the Southeast Asian unicorn, would account for more than 80% of the US$270m enterprise value.</li><li>MM2 Asia (MM2 SP) has signed an SPA to dispose of their cinema business as part of an ongoing restructuring of the media and entertainment group</li><li>Metro Pacific (MPI PM) accelerated repurchases of a further 224.8m shares during the past week taking the 30-day tally to 1.71% shares out.</li></ul>

We uncover a stake in post-merger Tokopedia-GoJek held by the Japanese e-commerce company Beenos (3328 JP) that, at the slated US$40bn IPO valuation for the Southeast Asian unicorn, would account for more than 80% of the US$270m enterprise value.MM2 Asia (MM2 SP) has signed an SPA to dispose of their cinema business as part of an ongoing restructuring of the media and entertainment groupMetro Pacific (MPI PM) accelerated repurchases of a further 224.8m shares during the past week taking the 30-day tally to 1.71% shares out.

Wickhams Hill Research | Under-The-Radar Issue 6

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/157/854/original/2020-09-09_04-55-21.png?1599594979" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="157854"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stream-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10256:1" rel="noopener">Stream (3071 JP)</a></strong>- Micro-cap internet mail-order platform Stream produced the best of Tuesday's results. Quarterly sales rose by 36% year-on-year, taking quarterly margins to a record-high 3.4% and making the 180-day old full-year forecasts obsolete. If sustained for the second half, EV/OP falls to an attractive 4.8 times. Given the low liquidity, the shares should enjoy a nice 'pop'.   </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/157/855/original/2020-09-09_05-01-17.png?1599595294" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="157855"></figure><div>
<hr>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p>
</div><hr><div><p><strong>NET POSITIVE</strong> - Mostly due to the mix of businesses, Tuesday's results were net-positive and, for the first time in many months, none of the companies reporting saw a quarterly loss. Of the two forecasts, the net score was also positive. </p></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>10 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<strong>Results Score:</strong> 50% Positive / 10% Neutral / 40% Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> 1.8 points</li>
<li>
<strong>Average % Change in Revenue</strong>: 7.7% Quarter YoY / 3.2% Rolling TTM YoY </li>
<li>
<strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -0.2 ppt</li>
<li>
<strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 0%</li>
</ul></div><div>
<hr>
<p></p>
</div>

Source for all charts: Japan AnalyticsStream (3071 JP)- Micro-cap internet mail-order platform Stream produced the best of Tuesday's results. Quarterly sales rose by 36% year-on-year, taking quarterly margins to a record-high 3.4% and making the 180-day old full-year forecasts obsolete. If sustained for the second half, EV/OP falls to an attractive 4.8 times. Given the low liquidity, the shares should enjoy a nice 'pop'.   

DAILY STATS
NET POSITIVE - Mostly due to the mix of businesses, Tuesday's results were net-positive and, for the first time in many months, none of the companies reporting saw a quarterly loss. Of the two forecasts, the net score was also positive. 10 Quarterly Results

Results Score: 50% Positive / 10% Neutral / 40% Negative

Average Results Score Change: 1.8 points

Average % Change in Revenue: 7.7% Quarter YoY / 3.2% Rolling TTM YoY 

Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -0.2 ppt

Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 0%





🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/​​​​08 - Net Positive, Stream, OSG, Subaru Ent., Beenos

Equity Analyst, Event-driven, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Equity Analyst, Event-driven

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<p>Japanese online grocery delivery service provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oisix-ra-daichi-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10145:1" rel="noopener">Oisix Ra Daichi (3182 JP)</a>  <a href="https://www2.tse.or.jp/disc/31820/140120200409491444.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">confirmed on 30th March</a> that it had received approval to move from the Mothers market to the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange as of 9th April. </p><div>
<p>TSE1 reassignment triggers inclusion into the TOPIX Index and we expect that the inclusion event will be at the close of trading 28th May 2020.</p>
<p>With Japan going into lock down, online grocery delivery services are experiencing a spike in demand and understandably, such e-commerce businesses have outperformed the broader market in recent weeks. </p>
<p>In this insight, we take a look at the parameters of the TOPIX Inclusion event and the fundamentals of the company to evaluate if there is potential for further upside to this stock.</p>
</div>

Japanese online grocery delivery service provider Oisix Ra Daichi (3182 JP)  confirmed on 30th March that it had received approval to move from the Mothers market to the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange as of 9th April. 
TSE1 reassignment triggers inclusion into the TOPIX Index and we expect that the inclusion event will be at the close of trading 28th May 2020.
With Japan going into lock down, online grocery delivery services are experiencing a spike in demand and understandably, such e-commerce businesses have outperformed the broader market in recent weeks. 
In this insight, we take a look at the parameters of the TOPIX Inclusion event and the fundamentals of the company to evaluate if there is potential for further upside to this stock.


TOPIX Inclusion: Oisix Ra Daichi (3182 JP)

Japan

Beenos Inc sells various type of merchandise using group-buying method through Internet. The Company's merchandises include fashion goods, brand goods, convenience goods, baby goods, and toiletry goods.

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Beenos Inc (3328 JP)

MonotaRo: A Rare Winner in E-Commerce

While most e-commerce players are fighting each other and the e-commerce arms of traditional businesses, MonotaRo operates in a niche with very...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Beenos: NAV Discount to Reach 46% Following GoTo & Droom Valuation Adjustments

GoTo and Droom are two of the biggest investments of Beenos’ incubator program. These two extremely successful companies are expected to IPO soon...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Wickhams Hill Research | Under-The-Radar Issue 6

We uncover a stake in post-merger Tokopedia-GoJek held by the Japanese e-commerce company Beenos (3328 JP) that at the slated...

Lloyd Moffatt

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/08 - Net Positive, Stream, OSG, Subaru Ent., Beenos

Source for all charts: Japan Analytics

Campbell Gunn

TOPIX Inclusion: Oisix Ra Daichi (3182 JP)

Japanese online grocery delivery service provider Oisix Ra Daichi (3182 JP) confirmed on 30th March that it had received approval to move from the...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

MonotaRo: A Rare Winner in E-Commerce

While most e-commerce players are fighting each other and the e-commerce arms of traditional businesses, MonotaRo operates in a niche with very...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Beenos: NAV Discount to Reach 46% Following GoTo & Droom Valuation Adjustments

GoTo and Droom are two of the biggest investments of Beenos’ incubator program. These two extremely successful companies are expected to IPO soon...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Wickhams Hill Research | Under-The-Radar Issue 6

We uncover a stake in post-merger Tokopedia-GoJek held by the Japanese e-commerce company Beenos (3328 JP) that at the slated...

Lloyd Moffatt

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/​​​​08 - Net Positive, Stream, OSG, Subaru Ent., Beenos

Source for all charts: Japan Analytics

Campbell Gunn

TOPIX Inclusion: Oisix Ra Daichi (3182 JP)

Japanese online grocery delivery service provider Oisix Ra Daichi (3182 JP) confirmed on 30th March that it had received approval to move from the...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/08 - Net Positive, Stream, OSG, Subaru Ent., Beenos