Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI. Discussed in Jan9,2025 report how we viewed the pullback as a buying opportunity and were watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US. </li>
<li>$116 support held perfectly, and now both ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 are coiling just below all-time highs, likely setting up for major breakouts. ACWI is now breaking out.</li>
<li>DXY and 10-Year Treasury yield are both topping, a crucial risk-on signal for global equities. More and more countries breaking out. Actionable Themes: Technology, Services, Communications, Industrials, Gold Miners, Financials</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI. Discussed in Jan9,2025 report how we viewed the pullback as a buying opportunity and were watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US. 
$116 support held perfectly, and now both ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 are coiling just below all-time highs, likely setting up for major breakouts. ACWI is now breaking out.
DXY and 10-Year Treasury yield are both topping, a crucial risk-on signal for global equities. More and more countries breaking out. Actionable Themes: Technology, Services, Communications, Industrials, Gold Miners, Financials


More Countries Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in China, Europe, More; DXY & Yields Top

<ul>
<li>Our bullish outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) remains intact with ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 firmly trending higher. Our recommendation since mid-October to use any pre-election pullback in..</li>
<li>... the ACWI or the SPX as an opportunity to add exposure continues to pay off, and there is not much left to do except ride the trend higher.</li>
<li>Additionally, we still see a high probability of significant upside going into year-end and the early part of 2025 -- and likely beyond</li>
</ul>


Our bullish outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) remains intact with ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 firmly trending higher. Our recommendation since mid-October to use any pre-election pullback in..
... the ACWI or the SPX as an opportunity to add exposure continues to pay off, and there is not much left to do except ride the trend higher.
Additionally, we still see a high probability of significant upside going into year-end and the early part of 2025 -- and likely beyond


Ride the Trend Higher in MSCI ACWI and S&P 500; Buy/Stay Long Global Discretionary, Services, Tech

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The data in this insight is collated from the "shareholding disclosure" link on the HKEx website.</li>
<li>Often there is a corresponding HKEx announcement on the increase - or decrease - in the shareholding by directors. Or pledging. However, such disclosures are by no means an absolute.</li>
<li>The key stocks mentioned in this regular insight include: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/geely-automobile-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:127:1" rel="noopener">Geely Auto (175 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kingsoft-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:492:1" rel="noopener">Kingsoft Corp (3888 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coastal-greenland-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4969:1" rel="noopener">Coastal Greenland (1124 HK)</a>.</li>
</ul>


The data in this insight is collated from the "shareholding disclosure" link on the HKEx website.
Often there is a corresponding HKEx announcement on the increase - or decrease - in the shareholding by directors. Or pledging. However, such disclosures are by no means an absolute.
The key stocks mentioned in this regular insight include: Geely Auto (175 HK), Kingsoft Corp (3888 HK), and Coastal Greenland (1124 HK).


HK CEO & Director Dealings (28th Nov 2024): Geely Auto, Kingsoft Corp, Coastal Greenland

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.</li>
<li>Last week saw NORTHBOUND net SELL RMB 6.7bn of A-shares on decent volume. A-shares out-performed H-shares quite dramatically, taking back H-share gains from the week before, which reversed prior weeks.</li>
<li>This week saw net buying of semiconductor/chip names, and net selling of the EV/Solar/Battery space and buying of the Ping Ans, but most notable was liquid A vs H performance.</li>
</ul>


The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.
Last week saw NORTHBOUND net SELL RMB 6.7bn of A-shares on decent volume. A-shares out-performed H-shares quite dramatically, taking back H-share gains from the week before, which reversed prior weeks.
This week saw net buying of semiconductor/chip names, and net selling of the EV/Solar/Battery space and buying of the Ping Ans, but most notable was liquid A vs H performance.


Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 19 Apr 2024): NB Net Seller; Semi-Tech Buys, Renewables Sold

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of April 19th.</li>
<li>We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$876.3 million, led by information technology, industrials, materials, and offset by financials, health care, real estate.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Zijin Mining, China Tourism, Foxconn Industrial Internet, China Citic Bank, Zhongji Innolight.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of April 19th.
We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$876.3 million, led by information technology, industrials, materials, and offset by financials, health care, real estate.
We highlight flows for Zijin Mining, China Tourism, Foxconn Industrial Internet, China Citic Bank, Zhongji Innolight.


Northbound Flows (Apr 19th): Zijin Mining, China Tourism, Foxconn Industrial Internet

China

Beijing Kingsoft Office Software, Inc. develops and distributes software products. The Company develops anti virus software, office software, and other products. Beijing Kingsoft Office Software also provides cloud computing, system integration, and other services.

Beijing Kingsoft Office Softwa (688111 CH)

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Beijing Kingsoft Office Softwa (688111 CH)

More Countries Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in China, Europe, More; DXY & Yields Top

More Countries Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact $ACWI $EAFE $EEM. More buys in China; Germany continues to lead Europe higher. Will...

Vermilion Research

Ride the Trend Higher in MSCI ACWI and S&P 500; Buy/Stay Long Global Discretionary, Services, Tech

Ride the Trend Higher in MSCI $ACWI and $SPX; We are still bullish as Risk-On Signals Dominate. Ideas to buy/stay long in global Discretionary,...

Vermilion Research

HK CEO & Director Dealings (28th Nov 2024): Geely Auto, Kingsoft Corp, Coastal Greenland

The key stocks mentioned in this regular insight include: Geely Auto (175 HK) (director buying), Kingsoft Corp (3888 HK) (directors selling), and...

David Blennerhassett

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 19 Apr 2024): NB Net Seller; Semi-Tech Buys, Renewables Sold

NORTHBOUND Connect was again a seller this past week, with batteries/EVs/solar seeing net selling, and banks seeing net buying. As significantly...

Travis Lundy

Northbound Flows (Apr 19th): Zijin Mining, China Tourism, Foxconn Industrial Internet

We analyzed northbound Shanghai/Shenzhen connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for Zijin Mining, China Tourism, Foxconn Industrial...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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