Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Tally 50 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>One new deals was discussed on Smartkarma this week, being <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mimasu-semiconductor-industry-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5531:1" rel="noopener">Mimasu Semiconductor Industry (8155 JP)</a>'s Tender Offer. There's also <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group (BHP AU)</a>'s unsolicited Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anglo-american-plc-04f6cda9-c726-4c33-8544-c5046bc74b29" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28603:1" rel="noopener">Anglo American (NGLOY US)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tietto-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28006:1" rel="noopener">Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csr-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17380:1" rel="noopener">CSR Ltd (CSR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpmc-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10427:1" rel="noopener">CPMC Holdings (906 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/roland-dg-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10653:1" rel="noopener">Roland DG Corp (6789 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/iclick-interactive-asia-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27314:1" rel="noopener">iClick Interactive Asia Group (ICLK US)</a>.</li>
</ul>


Tally 50 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
One new deals was discussed on Smartkarma this week, being Mimasu Semiconductor Industry (8155 JP)'s Tender Offer. There's also BHP Group (BHP AU)'s unsolicited Offer for Anglo American (NGLOY US).
Key updates took place on: Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU), CSR Ltd (CSR AU), CPMC Holdings (906 HK), Roland DG Corp (6789 JP), and iClick Interactive Asia Group (ICLK US).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Mimasu Semi, Tietto Minerals, CSR, CPMC, Roland DG, IClick Interactive

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

<ul>
<li>On 27 April, Reuters reported that BHP is considering making an improved offer for Anglo American after its initial proposal was rejected. Anglo's shares trade at 0.3% discount to proposal.</li>
<li>BHP is not paying any control premium. Despite its robust portfolio and recent share price appreciation, Anglo trades at a 18% discount compared to the sum of its parts (3018p). </li>
<li>Interloper risk is high. Antitrust risk seems low. As a defence, Anglo may conduct some portfolio simplification to unlock value. I would be long at current prices.</li>
</ul>


On 27 April, Reuters reported that BHP is considering making an improved offer for Anglo American after its initial proposal was rejected. Anglo's shares trade at 0.3% discount to proposal.
BHP is not paying any control premium. Despite its robust portfolio and recent share price appreciation, Anglo trades at a 18% discount compared to the sum of its parts (3018p). 
Interloper risk is high. Antitrust risk seems low. As a defence, Anglo may conduct some portfolio simplification to unlock value. I would be long at current prices.


BHP to Consider Sweetened Proposal for Anglo

Keisei Electric Railway Co / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The CSRC has announced five capital market cooperation measures for the Hong Kong Southbound Connect programs including  RMB dual counters and REITs. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-cycle-carriage-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:347:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)</a>'s current implied stub value and simple ratio are both highly elevated.</li>
<li>A simple <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a>model says "this doesn't present me with enough upside to warrant it unless I am also really bullish <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a>."</li>
</ul>


The CSRC has announced five capital market cooperation measures for the Hong Kong Southbound Connect programs including  RMB dual counters and REITs. 

Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)'s current implied stub value and simple ratio are both highly elevated.
A simple Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)model says "this doesn't present me with enough upside to warrant it unless I am also really bullish Oriental Land (4661 JP)."


Last Week in Event SPACE: HK Southbound, Jardine Cycle, Keisei/Oriental Land, BHP/Anglo American

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP (BHP AU)</a>'s all-scrip <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20240426/pdf/062w455d52h3cv.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">unsolicited Offer</a> for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anglo-american-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21798:1" rel="noopener">Anglo American (AAL LN)</a>, zeroes in on AAL's copper assets as demand for the metal increases for use in EVs and renewable power.</li>
<li>The proposal has been labelled highly opportunistic by some shareholders and South African politicians. And that the value of AAL's Chilian/Peruvian copper mines are obscured by its sprawling business interests.</li>
<li>The Offer remains conditional and non-binding. A transaction hinges off AAL spinning off its South African iron ore and platinum businesses. Expect AAL to reject terms, but remain engaged. </li>
</ul>



BHP (BHP AU)'s all-scrip unsolicited Offer for Anglo American (AAL LN), zeroes in on AAL's copper assets as demand for the metal increases for use in EVs and renewable power.
The proposal has been labelled highly opportunistic by some shareholders and South African politicians. And that the value of AAL's Chilian/Peruvian copper mines are obscured by its sprawling business interests.
The Offer remains conditional and non-binding. A transaction hinges off AAL spinning off its South African iron ore and platinum businesses. Expect AAL to reject terms, but remain engaged. 


BHP/Anglo American: A Decarbonising Solution

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Apr 19th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD18.6bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Woolworths, Ampol, Computershare, Fortescue, BHP, Seven Group.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Apr 19th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD18.6bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Woolworths, Ampol, Computershare, Fortescue, BHP, Seven Group.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Apr 19th): Woolworths, Ampol, Computershare, Fortescue, BHP, Seven Group

Australia

BHP Group Limited operates as a mining company.  The Companyengages in the exploration, development, production and processing of iron ore, metallurgical coal, and copper. BHP Group serves customers worldwide.

BHP Group Ltd (BHP LN)

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Mimasu Semi, Tietto Minerals, CSR, CPMC, Roland DG, IClick Interactive

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

BHP to Consider Sweetened Proposal for Anglo

On 27 April, Reuters reported that BHP is considering making an improved offer for Anglo American after its initial proposal was rejected. Anglo's...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: HK Southbound, Jardine Cycle, Keisei/Oriental Land, BHP/Anglo American

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

BHP/Anglo American: A Decarbonising Solution

I would expect AAL to reject terms; but remain engaged. I'd expect BHP to fump. For that, the near term trade is probably to still be short BHP,...

David Blennerhassett

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Apr 19th): Woolworths, Ampol, Computershare, Fortescue, BHP, Seven Group

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Woolworths, Ampol, Computershare, Fortescue, BHP,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM