Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
Context:<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)</a> reported 1H25 results on 30 July, cutting its interim dividend by 16%.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto's</a> share price fell more than expected after earnings, exceeding both historical and implied moves. A surprise US copper tariff announcement further amplified the decline.</li>
<li>This Insight breaks down drivers of the post-earnings move and evaluates the potential outcome of a short-vol strategy — offering a practical case study for refining similar trades.</li>
</ul>



Context:Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU) reported 1H25 results on 30 July, cutting its interim dividend by 16%.

Rio Tinto's share price fell more than expected after earnings, exceeding both historical and implied moves. A surprise US copper tariff announcement further amplified the decline.
This Insight breaks down drivers of the post-earnings move and evaluates the potential outcome of a short-vol strategy — offering a practical case study for refining similar trades.


Rio Tinto (RIO AU): Post-Earnings Drop Exceeds Expectations

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22114:1" rel="noopener">(RIO LN)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-plc-057cb83c-c6f0-460f-976f-c58c789ef28c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28506:1" rel="noopener">(RIO US)</a> is scheduled to report its 2025 half year results on Wednesday, 30 July 2025 at 16:15 AEST.
</li>
<li>
Actionable Option Strategy: Options imply a move noticeably larger than the historical average, opening up a potential short-term yield opportunity. Trade setup discussed in detail.</li>
<li>
Why Read: The Insight outlines yield-focused short-vol strategies, the expected volatility crush, and a forecast for Rio’s interim dividend based on payout policy and timing.</li>
</ul>



Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU) / (RIO LN) / (RIO US) is scheduled to report its 2025 half year results on Wednesday, 30 July 2025 at 16:15 AEST.


Actionable Option Strategy: Options imply a move noticeably larger than the historical average, opening up a potential short-term yield opportunity. Trade setup discussed in detail.

Why Read: The Insight outlines yield-focused short-vol strategies, the expected volatility crush, and a forecast for Rio’s interim dividend based on payout policy and timing.


Rio Tinto (RIO AU) 1H25 Results on 30 July: Earning Yield from Volatility Premium

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Solactive has announced the constituent changes for the Global Uranium &amp; Nuclear Components Index with implementation at the close on 31 July.</li>
<li>Nano Nuclear Energy (NNE US) and Atha Energy Corp (ATHA CN) will be added to the index. Estimated one-way turnover is 16.3% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$1.36bn.</li>
<li>There are only 3 trading days to implementation of the changes and we'd watch out for big moves on stocks that have more than 2x ADV to trade.</li>
</ul>


Solactive has announced the constituent changes for the Global Uranium &amp; Nuclear Components Index with implementation at the close on 31 July.
Nano Nuclear Energy (NNE US) and Atha Energy Corp (ATHA CN) will be added to the index. Estimated one-way turnover is 16.3% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$1.36bn.
There are only 3 trading days to implementation of the changes and we'd watch out for big moves on stocks that have more than 2x ADV to trade.


Solactive Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index Rebalance: Two Adds & US$1.4bn Trade

Financial News, Analysis and Data, FNArena

FNArena

Financial News, Analysis and Data

Online financial media company focused on Australian equities, with a global perspective

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>A brief look at important company events and economic data releases next week.</li></ul>

A brief look at important company events and economic data releases next week.

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd - Next Week At A Glance - 28 July-1 Aug 2025

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Jul 18th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD25.3bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in JB Hi-Fi, James Hardie Industries, Amcor, Iluka Resources, National Australia Bank.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Jul 18th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD25.3bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in JB Hi-Fi, James Hardie Industries, Amcor, Iluka Resources, National Australia Bank.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jul 18th): JB Hi-Fi, James Hardie Industries, Amcor, Iluka Resources

Australia

BHP Group Limited operates as a mining company.  The Companyengages in the exploration, development, production and processing of iron ore, metallurgical coal, and copper. BHP Group serves customers worldwide.

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BHP Group Ltd (BHP LN)

Rio Tinto (RIO AU): Post-Earnings Drop Exceeds Expectations

Rio Tinto Ltd cuts dividend by 16% after 1H25 results, leading to unexpected share price drop exacerbated by surprise US copper tariff announcement.

Gaudenz Schneider

Rio Tinto (RIO AU) 1H25 Results on 30 July: Earning Yield from Volatility Premium

Reminder: Rio Tinto (RIO AU) reports today at 16:15 AEST (Sydney) / 07:15 BST (London) / 02:15 EDT (New York). Since yesterday’s publication, the...

Gaudenz Schneider

Solactive Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index Rebalance: Two Adds & US$1.4bn Trade

There are 2 adds and capping changes in July for an estimated one-way turnover of 16.3% and a round-trip trade of US$1.4bn. Only 3 days to...

Brian Freitas

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd - Next Week At A Glance - 28 July-1 Aug 2025

A brief look at important company events and economic data releases next week.

FNArena

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jul 18th): JB Hi-Fi, James Hardie Industries, Amcor, Iluka Resources

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in JB Hi-Fi, James Hardie Industries, Amcor, Iluka...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Rio Tinto (RIO AU): Post-Earnings Drop Exceeds Expectations

​Rio Tinto Ltd cuts dividend by 16% after 1H25 results, leading to unexpected share price drop exacerbated by surprise US copper tariff announcement.

Gaudenz Schneider

Rio Tinto (RIO AU) 1H25 Results on 30 July: Earning Yield from Volatility Premium

Reminder: Rio Tinto (RIO AU) reports today at 16:15 AEST (Sydney) / 07:15 BST (London) / 02:15 EDT (New York). Since yesterday’s publication, the...

Gaudenz Schneider

Solactive Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index Rebalance: Two Adds & US$1.4bn Trade

There are 2 adds and capping changes in July for an estimated one-way turnover of 16.3% and a round-trip trade of US$1.4bn. Only 3 days to...

Brian Freitas

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd - Next Week At A Glance - 28 July-1 Aug 2025

A brief look at important company events and economic data releases next week.

FNArena

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jul 18th): JB Hi-Fi, James Hardie Industries, Amcor, Iluka Resources

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in JB Hi-Fi, James Hardie Industries, Amcor, Iluka...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Rio Tinto Ltd cuts dividend by 16% after 1H25 results, leading to unexpected share price drop exacerbated by surprise US copper tariff announcement.