Iron Ore, Copper, Equities, Mint Finance

Umang Agrawal

Iron Ore, Copper, Equities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Weak mill profitability remains the key drag on iron ore, while elevated inventories and fading freight support continue to weigh on the near-term demand-supply balance.</li>
<li>The divergence in grade spreads shows 61% Fe underperforming both premium and lower-grade ore, pointing to weaker relative demand for the benchmark.</li>
<li>Options positioning remains tilted towards upside exposure, but unwinding at key strikes and a rising put-call ratio signal fading bullish conviction.</li>
</ul>


Weak mill profitability remains the key drag on iron ore, while elevated inventories and fading freight support continue to weigh on the near-term demand-supply balance.
The divergence in grade spreads shows 61% Fe underperforming both premium and lower-grade ore, pointing to weaker relative demand for the benchmark.
Options positioning remains tilted towards upside exposure, but unwinding at key strikes and a rising put-call ratio signal fading bullish conviction.


Iron Ore Monthly Derivatives Chartbook (September 2026)

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Based on prices and turnover from 16 January, there could be four additions for the index in January. Plus there will be capping and float changes.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 2.9% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$420m. There are many stocks with multiple days of ADV to trade.</li>
<li>The index is up 108% over the last year and there have been large creations in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/global-x-uranium-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32107:1" rel="noopener">Global X Uranium ETF (URA US)</a> over the last 9 months.</li>
</ul>


Based on prices and turnover from 16 January, there could be four additions for the index in January. Plus there will be capping and float changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 2.9% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$420m. There are many stocks with multiple days of ADV to trade.
The index is up 108% over the last year and there have been large creations in Global X Uranium ETF (URA US) over the last 9 months.


Solactive Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index Rebalance Preview: Four Potential Adds + Capping

Financial News, Analysis and Data, FNArena

FNArena

Financial News, Analysis and Data

Online financial media company focused on Australian equities, with a global perspective

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>After a solid FY26, BHP&rsquo;s FY27 production guidance has missed consensus across commodities with copper the standout on lower grades and maintenance.</li><li> BHP Group&rsquo;s FY27 copper production guidance fell&rsquo;s short of expectation FY26 iron ore/copper production largely in line with consensus Coal production a substantial beat Potential for an upside dividend surprise for shareholders in August</li></ul>

After a solid FY26, BHP&rsquo;s FY27 production guidance has missed consensus across commodities with copper the standout on lower grades and maintenance. BHP Group&rsquo;s FY27 copper production guidance fell&rsquo;s short of expectation FY26 iron ore/copper production largely in line with consensus Coal production a substantial beat Potential for an upside dividend surprise for shareholders in August

<ul>
<li>FY27 guidance signals lower copper production of 1.65-1.80 Mt, contrasting with stable iron ore volumes of 260-272 Mt.</li>
<li>Consensus EPS estimates have moved lower over the past month, with FY26 and FY27 forecasts revised down to USD 5.06 and USD 5.15, respectively.</li>
<li>Elevated implied volatility and bearish August options positioning point to a cautious outlook ahead of BHP's FY26 earnings announcement. </li>
</ul>


FY27 guidance signals lower copper production of 1.65-1.80 Mt, contrasting with stable iron ore volumes of 260-272 Mt.
Consensus EPS estimates have moved lower over the past month, with FY26 and FY27 forecasts revised down to USD 5.06 and USD 5.15, respectively.
Elevated implied volatility and bearish August options positioning point to a cautious outlook ahead of BHP's FY26 earnings announcement. 


Iron Ore Cannot Fully Offset BHP's Looming ~12% Copper Production Decline in FY27

Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Copper is trading above 5.05 USD/lbs and has rallied over 29% YTD. Jeff Currie was quoted as saying "<strong>Copper is the New Oil"</strong>
</li>
<li>Sprott launches physical Copper Trust, copying the uranium playbook. Removing physical copper from the market.</li>
<li>Uranium in 2023 and Cacao in 1H24 show what commodity prices can do if investors panic. Is copper making a parabolic move next?</li>
</ul>


Copper is trading above 5.05 USD/lbs and has rallied over 29% YTD. Jeff Currie was quoted as saying "Copper is the New Oil"

Sprott launches physical Copper Trust, copying the uranium playbook. Removing physical copper from the market.
Uranium in 2023 and Cacao in 1H24 show what commodity prices can do if investors panic. Is copper making a parabolic move next?


Australia

BHP is an Australian multinational mining and metals company that extracts, processes, and markets iron ore, copper, and metallurgical coal, and is developing a potash business. It is one of the world's largest mining companies by market capitalization. The company was founded in August 1885 and is headquartered in Melbourne, Australia.

Price Gauge
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BHP (BHP LN)

Iron Ore Monthly Derivatives Chartbook (September 2026)

Iron Ore's OI activity has shifted away from higher strikes, with the earlier 120-strike buildup largely unwound, signaling weaker conviction...

Mint Finance

Solactive Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index Rebalance Preview: Four Potential Adds + Capping

We highlight 4 potential inclusions for the index in January. Estimated one-way turnover is 2.9% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$420m. There...

Brian Freitas

A Dividend Surprise From BHP in August?

After a solid FY26, BHP’s FY27 production guidance has missed consensus across commodities with copper the standout on lower grades and...

FNArena

Iron Ore Cannot Fully Offset BHP's Looming ~12% Copper Production Decline in FY27

Strong commodity prices cushioned FY26, but falling copper production, easing earnings expectations and a cautious options market raise fresh...

Mint Finance

Junior Copper Miners: Time for Lift-Off?

Copper surges as demand increases. Sprott launches physical Copper Trust, potentially impacting market supply. Will copper follow uranium and...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Iron Ore Monthly Derivatives Chartbook (September 2026)

Iron Ore's OI activity has shifted away from higher strikes, with the earlier 120-strike buildup largely unwound, signaling weaker conviction...

Mint Finance

Solactive Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index Rebalance Preview: Four Potential Adds + Capping

We highlight 4 potential inclusions for the index in January. Estimated one-way turnover is 2.9% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$420m. There...

Brian Freitas

A Dividend Surprise From BHP in August?

After a solid FY26, BHP’s FY27 production guidance has missed consensus across commodities with copper the standout on lower grades and...

FNArena

Iron Ore Cannot Fully Offset BHP's Looming ~12% Copper Production Decline in FY27

Strong commodity prices cushioned FY26, but falling copper production, easing earnings expectations and a cautious options market raise fresh...

Mint Finance

Junior Copper Miners: Time for Lift-Off?

​Copper surges as demand increases. Sprott launches physical Copper Trust, potentially impacting market supply. Will copper follow uranium and...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Copper surges as demand increases. Sprott launches physical Copper Trust, potentially impacting market supply. Will copper follow uranium and...