Bayon Financial

Graeme Cunningham

Independent Insight Provider

Bayon Financial provides industry and company analysis focusing on mid and small cap equity research coverage across a range of sectors including mining, financials and telecoms.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The China iron ore ban remains opaque, with some reports of an expansion to Newman fines, but others indicating a pause, and it has had limited effect on trade statistics</li>
<li>The company has selected 'surprise' new CEO, Mr. Brandon Craig, who has experience across all three major divisions, over the previous frontrunner Ms. Geraldine Slattery </li>
<li>We see a marginal effect from the China ban, but other major risks to the iron ore and copper divisions, and there is downside to our SOTP with moderate multiples </li>
</ul>


The China iron ore ban remains opaque, with some reports of an expansion to Newman fines, but others indicating a pause, and it has had limited effect on trade statistics
The company has selected 'surprise' new CEO, Mr. Brandon Craig, who has experience across all three major divisions, over the previous frontrunner Ms. Geraldine Slattery 
We see a marginal effect from the China ban, but other major risks to the iron ore and copper divisions, and there is downside to our SOTP with moderate multiples 


BHP: Iron Ore Ban Opacity, Surprise New CEO

Iron Ore, Copper, Equities, Mint Finance

Umang Agrawal

Iron Ore, Copper, Equities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Supply disruptions and higher freight costs lifted iron ore in August, but squeezed mill margins and weak demand could limit further upside and trigger renewed price pressure.</li>
<li>Call buildup at the 100 and 105 strikes signals improving upside sentiment, while unwinding beyond 105 points to limited conviction in a sustained rally.</li>
<li>Managed money’s positioning turned more defensive in August, as greater short exposure and reduced long exposure signaled weaker conviction in further iron ore price upside.</li>
</ul>


Supply disruptions and higher freight costs lifted iron ore in August, but squeezed mill margins and weak demand could limit further upside and trigger renewed price pressure.
Call buildup at the 100 and 105 strikes signals improving upside sentiment, while unwinding beyond 105 points to limited conviction in a sustained rally.
Managed money’s positioning turned more defensive in August, as greater short exposure and reduced long exposure signaled weaker conviction in further iron ore price upside.


Iron Ore Monthly Derivatives Chartbook (August 2026)

<ul>
<li>BHP and Rio have both escaped from potentially long messy merger processes with lower ROE targets, Anglo American and Glencore, respectively, over the past few months </li>
<li>This may have just been just in time given the abrupt deterioration in the macro environment, leaving the companies leaner, meaner and better to positioned to handle the new challenges </li>
<li>We were bearish prior to the risk surge and viewed huge consensus upgrades as overly bullish, and there is further downside to our valuations even after recent share price pullbacks</li>
</ul>


BHP and Rio have both escaped from potentially long messy merger processes with lower ROE targets, Anglo American and Glencore, respectively, over the past few months 
This may have just been just in time given the abrupt deterioration in the macro environment, leaving the companies leaner, meaner and better to positioned to handle the new challenges 
We were bearish prior to the risk surge and viewed huge consensus upgrades as overly bullish, and there is further downside to our valuations even after recent share price pullbacks


BHP, Rio Tinto: Escape From the Merger Morass

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Australia's ASIC releases the aggregated short position data four business days after the reporting day. Data in this insight is up to 2nd March, published ~9AM on the 6th March.</li>
<li>The largest industry net increase in the past week was into "Diversified Metals &amp; Mining"; the largest industry net decrease was out of "Healthcare Distributors". Net shorts increased A$4bn WoW.</li>
<li>Companies mentioned in this regular weekly report include: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group (BHP AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sigma-healthcare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15966:1" rel="noopener">Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/flight-centre-travel-group-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7537:1" rel="noopener">Flight Centre Travel (FLT AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/telstra-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:690:1" rel="noopener">Telstra Corp (TLS AU)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/boss-energy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4823:1" rel="noopener">Boss Energy (BOE AU)</a>.
</li>
</ul>


Australia's ASIC releases the aggregated short position data four business days after the reporting day. Data in this insight is up to 2nd March, published ~9AM on the 6th March.
The largest industry net increase in the past week was into "Diversified Metals &amp; Mining"; the largest industry net decrease was out of "Healthcare Distributors". Net shorts increased A$4bn WoW.
Companies mentioned in this regular weekly report include: BHP Group (BHP AU), Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU), Flight Centre Travel (FLT AU), Telstra Corp (TLS AU), and Boss Energy (BOE AU).



Aussie Shorts (2 Mar 2026): BHP Group, Sigma Healthcare, Flight Centre Travel, Telstra, Boss Energy

<ul>
<li>BHP's H2/25 results were strong but inline, boosted mainly by the copper segment, including precious metals byproducts, with light iron ore growth and a coal contraction </li>
<li>However, we are not convinced the copper rally can continue, with the price range bound and volatile for two months, while the iron price has already started to turn over  </li>
<li>We are skeptical of major earnings and target upgrades for many megacap miners recently, while our BHP valuation, -26% below the price, remains roughly unchanged</li>
</ul>


BHP's H2/25 results were strong but inline, boosted mainly by the copper segment, including precious metals byproducts, with light iron ore growth and a coal contraction 
However, we are not convinced the copper rally can continue, with the price range bound and volatile for two months, while the iron price has already started to turn over  
We are skeptical of major earnings and target upgrades for many megacap miners recently, while our BHP valuation, -26% below the price, remains roughly unchanged


BHP: Copper Rules Results But Still Risks To Rally

Australia

BHP Group Ltd operates as an international resources company. The Company offers mineral exploration and production, including coal, iron ore, gold, titanium, ferroalloys, nickel, and copper concentrate, as well as petroleum exploration, production, and refining. BHP Group serves customers worldwide.

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BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU)

BHP: Iron Ore Ban Opacity, Surprise New CEO

The continued opaque China iron ban has had minimal effect on BHP's price, a 'surprise' CEO has been chosen, and our SOTP implies aggressive...

Graeme Cunningham

Iron Ore Monthly Derivatives Chartbook (August 2026)

Options positioning remains constructive, with call OI concentrated above 100, even as managed money reduces upside exposure and increases bearish...

Mint Finance

BHP, Rio Tinto: Escape From the Merger Morass

BHP and Rio both escaped from potential major mergers just in time, leaving them better positioned to deal with an abrupt macro deterioration, but...

Graeme Cunningham

Aussie Shorts (2 Mar 2026): BHP Group, Sigma Healthcare, Flight Centre Travel, Telstra, Boss Energy

Net shorts increased A$4bn WOW. Companies mentioned in this regulaor weekly report include: BHP (BHP AU), Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU), Flight Centre...

David Blennerhassett

BHP: Copper Rules Results But Still Risks To Rally

Copper was the big driver of strong, inline, H2/25 results, with iron ore slow and coal declining, but we still see risks to copper and iron ore...

Graeme Cunningham

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