China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We expect online gaming has a better performance: 1) improved content supply and 2) strong user demand for social interactions in top games like Tencent’s HOK and NetEase’s Egg Party.</li>
<li>We suggest that eCommerce and advertising have relatively weak performances in January because offline consumption enjoyed faster rebound and attracted users away from online platforms.</li>
<li>We are more positive about Tencent in C1Q23, and we expect that major ads platforms like Kuaishou, Baidu, Bili, iQIYI, and Weibo will have the fastest YoY growth in C2Q23.</li>
</ul>


We expect online gaming has a better performance: 1) improved content supply and 2) strong user demand for social interactions in top games like Tencent’s HOK and NetEase’s Egg Party.
We suggest that eCommerce and advertising have relatively weak performances in January because offline consumption enjoyed faster rebound and attracted users away from online platforms.
We are more positive about Tencent in C1Q23, and we expect that major ads platforms like Kuaishou, Baidu, Bili, iQIYI, and Weibo will have the fastest YoY growth in C2Q23.


China Internet CNY Holiday Update: Gaming Performed Better than Ads and ECom

<ul>
<li>We update our China online advertising model and forecast that the industry will reach RMB 1,167 bn with 9.3% YoY in 2023, rebounding from 2.7% YoY in 2022.</li>
<li>Bytedance's slowdown, Tencent's Video Account, and some sectors' uneven faster-than-expected recoveries will be three key themes that could generate investment opportunities in 2023.</li>
<li>We recommend BUY Tencent, BABA, PDD, and Meituan within the sector.</li>
</ul>


We update our China online advertising model and forecast that the industry will reach RMB 1,167 bn with 9.3% YoY in 2023, rebounding from 2.7% YoY in 2022.
Bytedance's slowdown, Tencent's Video Account, and some sectors' uneven faster-than-expected recoveries will be three key themes that could generate investment opportunities in 2023.
We recommend BUY Tencent, BABA, PDD, and Meituan within the sector.


China Online Ads Outlook: A Year of Uneven Recovery

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>For 3Q22E, social entertainment platforms still face intensifying competition and macro challenges that can weigh on their revenue growth and margin expansion.</li><li>Social entertainment platforms need to innovate their monetization methods and enhance operating efficiency in order to fend off competition and macro headwind, in our view.</li><li>Platforms with concentrated revenue exposure to ad business like Weibo and loss-making platforms like BiliBili (Bili) might be more sensitive to the competition and macro environment.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

For 3Q22E, social entertainment platforms still face intensifying competition and macro challenges that can weigh on their revenue growth and margin expansion.Social entertainment platforms need to innovate their monetization methods and enhance operating efficiency in order to fend off competition and macro headwind, in our view.Platforms with concentrated revenue exposure to ad business like Weibo and loss-making platforms like BiliBili (Bili) might be more sensitive to the competition and macro environment.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Internet– Social Entertainment 3Q22 Preview: Remains Under Pressure

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>Consumption sentiment and offline activities’ recovery pace continued to weigh on internet sector’s 3Q financials performance.</li><li>Looking into 4Q and 2023, business model robustness, operating leverage improvement, and ability to expand into new revenue streams will be the key stock alpha drivers, while the heavily under-owned China Internet sector will remain sensitive to policies and other sentiment related beta drivers.</li><li>We expect leading technology companies will play vital role in building digital infrastructure and empowering enterprise digital transformation. </li></ul></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Consumption sentiment and offline activities’ recovery pace continued to weigh on internet sector’s 3Q financials performance.Looking into 4Q and 2023, business model robustness, operating leverage improvement, and ability to expand into new revenue streams will be the key stock alpha drivers, while the heavily under-owned China Internet sector will remain sensitive to policies and other sentiment related beta drivers.We expect leading technology companies will play vital role in building digital infrastructure and empowering enterprise digital transformation. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Internet Sector – 3Q22 preview: near term bumpy recovery

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Communication Services allocations among active China managers are at their lowest levels on record. Average weights have drifted below 10% for the first time since 2013.</li>
<li>Tencent was the driver of the declining sector weight, yet managers are keeping the faith.  Asian managers cut exposure to Bilibili and China Mobile yet increased NetEase and Baidu.</li>
<li>Versus the MSCI China index, active managers are underweight -6.69% on average, the largest among sector peers and offset by overweights in Industrials and Consumer Staples</li>
</ul>


Communication Services allocations among active China managers are at their lowest levels on record. Average weights have drifted below 10% for the first time since 2013.
Tencent was the driver of the declining sector weight, yet managers are keeping the faith.  Asian managers cut exposure to Bilibili and China Mobile yet increased NetEase and Baidu.
Versus the MSCI China index, active managers are underweight -6.69% on average, the largest among sector peers and offset by overweights in Industrials and Consumer Staples


China Communication Services: Lowest Exposure on Record

China

Bilibili Inc. provides online entertainment services. The Company offers a platform that covers a wide array of genres and media formats, including videos, live broadcasting, mobile games, animation, and comics. Bilibili serves customers in China.

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Bilibili (BILI US)

China Internet CNY Holiday Update: Gaming Performed Better than Ads and ECom

Our recent channel check indicates that online gaming has a better performance than online ads and eCommerce during the Chinese New Year holiday....

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Online Ads Outlook: A Year of Uneven Recovery

We update our China online advertising model and conclude that Bytedance's slowdown, Tencent's Video Account, and some sectors' uneven recoveries...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Internet Sector – 3Q22 preview: near term bumpy recovery

We expect leading technology companies will play vital role in building digital infrastructure and empowering enterprise digital transformation.

CMB International

China Communication Services: Lowest Exposure on Record

Communication Services allocations among active China managers are at their lowest levels on record. This analysis looks at the funds and the...

Steven Holden

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China Internet CNY Holiday Update: Gaming Performed Better than Ads and ECom

Our recent channel check indicates that online gaming has a better performance than online ads and eCommerce during the Chinese New Year holiday....

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Online Ads Outlook: A Year of Uneven Recovery

We update our China online advertising model and conclude that Bytedance's slowdown, Tencent's Video Account, and some sectors' uneven recoveries...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Internet– Social Entertainment 3Q22 Preview: Remains Under Pressure

For 3Q22E, social entertainment platforms still face intensifying competition and macro challenges that can weigh on their revenue growth and...

CMB International

China Internet Sector – 3Q22 preview: near term bumpy recovery

We expect leading technology companies will play vital role in building digital infrastructure and empowering enterprise digital transformation.

CMB International

China Communication Services: Lowest Exposure on Record

Communication Services allocations among active China managers are at their lowest levels on record. This analysis looks at the funds and the...

Steven Holden