Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>With our strong endorsement of BILI's traffic and advertising story, we are constantly watching the development of its game pipeline, which is a near term drag. </li>
<li>The popularity of extraction shooter game &lt;Escape from Duckov&gt; on STEAM is unlikely to generate meaningful tractions. </li>
<li>The acceleration of game code approval still leaves the question of what kind of game BILI will be launching;  We maintain BUY on BILI at TP of US$22.</li>
</ul>


With our strong endorsement of BILI's traffic and advertising story, we are constantly watching the development of its game pipeline, which is a near term drag. 
The popularity of extraction shooter game &lt;Escape from Duckov&gt; on STEAM is unlikely to generate meaningful tractions. 
The acceleration of game code approval still leaves the question of what kind of game BILI will be launching;  We maintain BUY on BILI at TP of US$22.


[Bilibili (BILI US, BUY, TP US$22) Company Update]: Revenue Deceleration Is Still Likely to Happen

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>BiliBili announced 1Q25 financial results: total revenue was up by 24% YoY to RMB7.0bn, in line with Bloomberg consensus estimate; adjusted net income reached RMB362mn, up from net loss of RMB456mn in 1Q24 and ahead of consensus estimate of RMB248mn, thanks to the GPM expansion (+8ppt YoY) and prudent control in R&amp;D expenses (-13% YoY).</li><li>For 2Q25E, we expect Bili to maintain 20% YoY total revenue growth with margin expansion, driven by the solid momentum of advertising and mobile games businesses.</li><li>We raise our FY25-27E non-GAAP earnings forecasts to RMB2.2/3.2/4.1bn (previous: RMB1.8/2.7/3.7bn), in view of the solid margin expansion trend. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BiliBili announced 1Q25 financial results: total revenue was up by 24% YoY to RMB7.0bn, in line with Bloomberg consensus estimate; adjusted net income reached RMB362mn, up from net loss of RMB456mn in 1Q24 and ahead of consensus estimate of RMB248mn, thanks to the GPM expansion (+8ppt YoY) and prudent control in R&amp;D expenses (-13% YoY).For 2Q25E, we expect Bili to maintain 20% YoY total revenue growth with margin expansion, driven by the solid momentum of advertising and mobile games businesses.We raise our FY25-27E non-GAAP earnings forecasts to RMB2.2/3.2/4.1bn (previous: RMB1.8/2.7/3.7bn), in view of the solid margin expansion trend. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bilibili (BILI US) - 1Q25 Earnings Beat; Expect Strong Earnings Momentum to Continue in 2Q25

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>In 4Q24, Bilibili’s total revenue increased by 22% YoY and its largest business, value-added services, increased by 24% YoY.</li>
<li>SAIC president, Mr. Jia, removed 63 mid-level managers in the passenger car department.</li>
<li>Mengniu raised a profit warning that net profit will plunge by 95% - 99% in 2024.</li>
</ul>


In 4Q24, Bilibili’s total revenue increased by 22% YoY and its largest business, value-added services, increased by 24% YoY.
SAIC president, Mr. Jia, removed 63 mid-level managers in the passenger car department.
Mengniu raised a profit warning that net profit will plunge by 95% - 99% in 2024.


China Retail Weekly (24 Feb 2025): BILI, SAIC, NIO, Mengniu, JD, IQiyi

<ul>
<li>Bilibili (BILI) reported C4Q24 revenue and GAAP operating profit in line, 87% vs. our estimates and in line, 130% vs. consensus. </li>
<li>We see BILI's content strategy to be working to drive higher and better traffic, benefiting the ads business. </li>
<li>We BUY and raised our TP to US$24 awaiting further details on game pipeline. The stock trading at 2025 PE of 31x.</li>
</ul>


Bilibili (BILI) reported C4Q24 revenue and GAAP operating profit in line, 87% vs. our estimates and in line, 130% vs. consensus. 
We see BILI's content strategy to be working to drive higher and better traffic, benefiting the ads business. 
We BUY and raised our TP to US$24 awaiting further details on game pipeline. The stock trading at 2025 PE of 31x.


[Bilibili Inc. (BILI US, BUY, TP US$24) Target Price Change]: C3Q24 Review: Game Slowdown from C2Q25

<ul><li>BiliBili reported 4Q24 results: total revenue grew by 22% YoY to RMB7.73bn, in line with our/Bloomberg consensus estimate; adjusted net income was RMB453mn (vs. adjusted net loss of RMB556mn in 4Q23) and 15% ahead of consensus estimate, mainly due to strong revenue growth of higher-margin businesses (mobile games &amp; ads).</li><li>FY24 total revenue grew by 19% YoY to RMB26.8bn, and adjusted net loss narrowed by 99% YoY to RMB22.1mn. We expect advertising and mobile games businesses to maintain solid revenue growth in FY25E, which shall further drive GPM and OPM expansion.</li><li>Management reiterated its long-term OPM target of 15-20% (vs. 6% in 4Q24), which should also boost investor confidence, in our view. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BiliBili reported 4Q24 results: total revenue grew by 22% YoY to RMB7.73bn, in line with our/Bloomberg consensus estimate; adjusted net income was RMB453mn (vs. adjusted net loss of RMB556mn in 4Q23) and 15% ahead of consensus estimate, mainly due to strong revenue growth of higher-margin businesses (mobile games &amp; ads).FY24 total revenue grew by 19% YoY to RMB26.8bn, and adjusted net loss narrowed by 99% YoY to RMB22.1mn. We expect advertising and mobile games businesses to maintain solid revenue growth in FY25E, which shall further drive GPM and OPM expansion.Management reiterated its long-term OPM target of 15-20% (vs. 6% in 4Q24), which should also boost investor confidence, in our view. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bilibili (BILI US) - 4Q24 Earnings Beat on Strong Mobile Games and Ad Businesses

China

Bilibili Inc. provides online entertainment services. The Company offers a platform that covers a wide array of genres and media formats, including videos, live broadcasting, mobile games, animation, and comics. Bilibili serves customers in China.

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Bilibili (BILI US)

[Bilibili (BILI US, BUY, TP US$22) Company Update]: Revenue Deceleration Is Still Likely to Happen

Despite concerns about its game pipeline, BILI's strong traffic and advertising story make it a buy with a target price of US$22.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Bilibili (BILI US) - 1Q25 Earnings Beat; Expect Strong Earnings Momentum to Continue in 2Q25

We fine-tune our SOTP-derived target price to US$26.5 (previous: US$26.4) which translates to 25x FY26E non-GAAP PE, reflecting the mixed impact of...

CMB International

China Retail Weekly (24 Feb 2025): BILI, SAIC, NIO, Mengniu, JD, IQiyi

In 4Q24, Bilibili’s total revenue increased by 22% YoY. SAIC removed 63 managers in the passenger car department. Mengtniu raised a profit warning.

Ming Lu

[Bilibili Inc. (BILI US, BUY, TP US$24) Target Price Change]: C3Q24 Review: Game Slowdown from C2Q25

Bilibili's strong revenue and profit performance driven by successful content strategy, leading to a buy recommendation with raised price target.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Bilibili (BILI US) - 4Q24 Earnings Beat on Strong Mobile Games and Ad Businesses

We raise our FY25- 26E earnings forecast by 7-13% on a better margin outlook. We lift our SOTPderived target price to US$26.4 (previous: US$22.0)....

CMB International

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[Bilibili (BILI US, BUY, TP US$22) Company Update]: Revenue Deceleration Is Still Likely to Happen

​Despite concerns about its game pipeline, BILI's strong traffic and advertising story make it a buy with a target price of US$22.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Bilibili (BILI US) - 1Q25 Earnings Beat; Expect Strong Earnings Momentum to Continue in 2Q25

We fine-tune our SOTP-derived target price to US$26.5 (previous: US$26.4) which translates to 25x FY26E non-GAAP PE, reflecting the mixed impact of...

CMB International

China Retail Weekly (24 Feb 2025): BILI, SAIC, NIO, Mengniu, JD, IQiyi

In 4Q24, Bilibili’s total revenue increased by 22% YoY. SAIC removed 63 managers in the passenger car department. Mengtniu raised a profit warning.

Ming Lu

[Bilibili Inc. (BILI US, BUY, TP US$24) Target Price Change]: C3Q24 Review: Game Slowdown from C2Q25

​Bilibili's strong revenue and profit performance driven by successful content strategy, leading to a buy recommendation with raised price target.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Bilibili (BILI US) - 4Q24 Earnings Beat on Strong Mobile Games and Ad Businesses

We raise our FY25- 26E earnings forecast by 7-13% on a better margin outlook. We lift our SOTPderived target price to US$26.4 (previous: US$22.0)....

CMB International

Despite concerns about its game pipeline, BILI's strong traffic and advertising story make it a buy with a target price of US$22.

Bilibili's strong revenue and profit performance driven by successful content strategy, leading to a buy recommendation with raised price target.