Greater China Equity Long/Short Analyst

Eric Chen

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>BILIBILI shares have rallied more than 200% since early November on prospects of China exiting zero-COVID, short covering, and accelerated breakeven timeline.</li>
<li>Yet simply achieving breakeven doesn’t justify its US$10 billion valuation. It has to be accompanied by decent profitable growth - an unlikely scenario given the aggressive downsizing needed for breakeven.</li>
<li>BILI’s businesses also entail structurally low margin. Stock could easily de-rate by 30% or more when growth euphoria recedes and disappointed profitability checks in during 2023.</li>
</ul>


BILIBILI shares have rallied more than 200% since early November on prospects of China exiting zero-COVID, short covering, and accelerated breakeven timeline.
Yet simply achieving breakeven doesn’t justify its US$10 billion valuation. It has to be accompanied by decent profitable growth - an unlikely scenario given the aggressive downsizing needed for breakeven.
BILI’s businesses also entail structurally low margin. Stock could easily de-rate by 30% or more when growth euphoria recedes and disappointed profitability checks in during 2023.


BILIBILI (BILI US): Can Achieving Breakeven Justify US$10bn Market Cap?

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Multiple new agencies have been reporting that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> plans to trim its investment portfolio over the remainder of the year. </li>
<li>The reports have been coming in since the second half of the year and the company has been duly denying these rumors.</li>
<li>In this note, we look at Tencent’s shareholding in various companies to try and gauge which ones it could sell out of and how.</li>
</ul>


Multiple new agencies have been reporting that Tencent (700 HK) plans to trim its investment portfolio over the remainder of the year. 
The reports have been coming in since the second half of the year and the company has been duly denying these rumors.
In this note, we look at Tencent’s shareholding in various companies to try and gauge which ones it could sell out of and how.


Tencent Investee Selldown - The US$120bn Global Overhang

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>CTGR reported a 10.31% YoY increase in 3Q23 electricity generation, with wind and solar power showing robust growth.</li><li>Cumulatively, from 1Q23 to 3Q23, the company’s electricity generation grew by 13.36% YoY to 40.03bn kWh.</li><li>We remain optimistic about CTGR’s full-year power generation. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CTGR reported a 10.31% YoY increase in 3Q23 electricity generation, with wind and solar power showing robust growth.Cumulatively, from 1Q23 to 3Q23, the company’s electricity generation grew by 13.36% YoY to 40.03bn kWh.We remain optimistic about CTGR’s full-year power generation. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bilibili (BILI US) – 3Q23 Preview: Loss Reduction Remains on Track

China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>BILI reported 2Q23 top-line in-line and non-GAAP net profit 7% better than consensus.  However, gaming revenue was weak, causing BILI to revise down its full-year revenue guidance.</li>
<li>We believe e-commerce ads could become a new near-term driving force, but the rapid growth of game-related ads might fade post-Q3. </li>
<li>Also, the significant consolidation of ACG games could affect BILI’s future game performance. We maintain our US$ 12.3 TP and SELL rating.</li>
</ul>


BILI reported 2Q23 top-line in-line and non-GAAP net profit 7% better than consensus.  However, gaming revenue was weak, causing BILI to revise down its full-year revenue guidance.
We believe e-commerce ads could become a new near-term driving force, but the rapid growth of game-related ads might fade post-Q3. 
Also, the significant consolidation of ACG games could affect BILI’s future game performance. We maintain our US$ 12.3 TP and SELL rating.


[Bilibili(BILI US, SELL, TP US$12.3) Review]: E-Commerce Ads Aren’t Sufficient to Hide Other Issues

<ul><li>BiliBili announced 2Q23 financial results on 17 Aug: total revenue increased by 8% YoY to RMB5.3bn, in line with CMBI/consensus estimate.</li><li>Adjusted net loss narrowed by 51% YoY to RMB964mn, in line with CMBI/consensus estimate of RMB1.02/1.04bn.</li><li>Bili lowers its full-year total revenue guidance from RMB24.0- 26.0bn (+10% to 19% YoY) to RMB22.5-23.5bn (+3% to 7% YoY), mainly reflecting the delay of key game launches and softer-than-expected performance of IP derivatives business. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BiliBili announced 2Q23 financial results on 17 Aug: total revenue increased by 8% YoY to RMB5.3bn, in line with CMBI/consensus estimate.Adjusted net loss narrowed by 51% YoY to RMB964mn, in line with CMBI/consensus estimate of RMB1.02/1.04bn.Bili lowers its full-year total revenue guidance from RMB24.0- 26.0bn (+10% to 19% YoY) to RMB22.5-23.5bn (+3% to 7% YoY), mainly reflecting the delay of key game launches and softer-than-expected performance of IP derivatives business. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bilibili (BILI US) – Monetization Improvement While Driving for Ecosystem Growth

China

Bilibili Inc. provides online entertainment services. The Company offers a platform that covers a wide array of genres and media formats, including videos, live broadcasting, mobile games, animation, and comics. Bilibili serves customers in China.

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Bilibili (BILI US)

BILIBILI (BILI US): Can Achieving Breakeven Justify US$10bn Market Cap?

Simply achieving breakeven can't justify BILI's US$10bn market cap. Expect the company to be a leaner, profitable company yet without bright...

Eric Chen

Tencent Investee Selldown - The US$120bn Global Overhang

There have been multiple reports that Tencent (700 HK) plans to trim its investment portfolio over the remainder of the year. We look at Tencent's...

Sumeet Singh

Bilibili (BILI US) – 3Q23 Preview: Loss Reduction Remains on Track

Cumulatively, from 1Q23 to 3Q23, the company’s electricity generation grew by 13.36% YoY to 40.03bn kWh. We remain optimistic about CTGR’s full...

CMB International

[Bilibili(BILI US, SELL, TP US$12.3) Review]: E-Commerce Ads Aren’t Sufficient to Hide Other Issues

We believe e-commerce ads could become a new driving force, but the rapid growth of game-related ads might fade post-Q3. Also, the consolidation of...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Bilibili (BILI US) – Monetization Improvement While Driving for Ecosystem Growth

BiliBili announced 2Q23 financial results on 17 Aug: total revenue increased by 8% YoY to RMB5.3bn, in line with CMBI/consensus estimate.

CMB International

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