Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>With our strong endorsement of BILI's traffic and advertising story, we are constantly watching the development of its game pipeline, which is a near term drag. </li>
<li>The popularity of extraction shooter game &lt;Escape from Duckov&gt; on STEAM is unlikely to generate meaningful tractions. </li>
<li>The acceleration of game code approval still leaves the question of what kind of game BILI will be launching;  We maintain BUY on BILI at TP of US$22.</li>
</ul>


With our strong endorsement of BILI's traffic and advertising story, we are constantly watching the development of its game pipeline, which is a near term drag. 
The popularity of extraction shooter game &lt;Escape from Duckov&gt; on STEAM is unlikely to generate meaningful tractions. 
The acceleration of game code approval still leaves the question of what kind of game BILI will be launching;  We maintain BUY on BILI at TP of US$22.


[Bilibili (BILI US, BUY, TP US$22) Company Update]: Revenue Deceleration Is Still Likely to Happen

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>BiliBili announced 1Q25 financial results: total revenue was up by 24% YoY to RMB7.0bn, in line with Bloomberg consensus estimate; adjusted net income reached RMB362mn, up from net loss of RMB456mn in 1Q24 and ahead of consensus estimate of RMB248mn, thanks to the GPM expansion (+8ppt YoY) and prudent control in R&amp;D expenses (-13% YoY).</li><li>For 2Q25E, we expect Bili to maintain 20% YoY total revenue growth with margin expansion, driven by the solid momentum of advertising and mobile games businesses.</li><li>We raise our FY25-27E non-GAAP earnings forecasts to RMB2.2/3.2/4.1bn (previous: RMB1.8/2.7/3.7bn), in view of the solid margin expansion trend. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

BiliBili announced 1Q25 financial results: total revenue was up by 24% YoY to RMB7.0bn, in line with Bloomberg consensus estimate; adjusted net income reached RMB362mn, up from net loss of RMB456mn in 1Q24 and ahead of consensus estimate of RMB248mn, thanks to the GPM expansion (+8ppt YoY) and prudent control in R&amp;D expenses (-13% YoY).For 2Q25E, we expect Bili to maintain 20% YoY total revenue growth with margin expansion, driven by the solid momentum of advertising and mobile games businesses.We raise our FY25-27E non-GAAP earnings forecasts to RMB2.2/3.2/4.1bn (previous: RMB1.8/2.7/3.7bn), in view of the solid margin expansion trend. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bilibili (BILI US) - 1Q25 Earnings Beat; Expect Strong Earnings Momentum to Continue in 2Q25

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>"VTuber" (Virtual Youtuber) animated influencer company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anycolor-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36618:1" rel="noopener">Anycolor (5032 JP)</a> was listed on 8 June 2022 at ¥1530. The stock popped 214% on Day1.It is up another 60% since then.</li>
<li>Today Anycolor reported Q2 earnings (<a href="https://ssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/5032/ir_material_for_fiscal_ym2/128782/00.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">result</a>, <a href="https://ssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/5032/ir_material_for_fiscal_ym3/128783/00.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">presentation</a>) and <a href="https://ssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/5032/ir_material1/198000/00.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">revised its full-year forecast</a> to 30 April. Revenues will be +7-18% vs forecast, OP +18-39%, NP +15-39%. Price is 43x forecast EPS.</li>
<li>The company also announced it is preparing a <a href="https://ssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/5032/ir_material1/198002/00.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Section Transfer application</a>, but gave little more info. So we dig into what THAT means.</li>
</ul>


"VTuber" (Virtual Youtuber) animated influencer company Anycolor (5032 JP) was listed on 8 June 2022 at ¥1530. The stock popped 214% on Day1.It is up another 60% since then.
Today Anycolor reported Q2 earnings (result, presentation) and revised its full-year forecast to 30 April. Revenues will be +7-18% vs forecast, OP +18-39%, NP +15-39%. Price is 43x forecast EPS.
The company also announced it is preparing a Section Transfer application, but gave little more info. So we dig into what THAT means.


2023 High Conviction - Anycolor (5032) Aiming at TSE Prime and TOPIX - And How!

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US listed China companies.</li>
<li>The Hong Kong visit was on the back of the 26th Aug 2022 announcement by PCAOB and CSRC that they had entered into an agreement with US authorities for access.</li>
<li>In this note, we'll talk about the latest developments, possible outcomes and implications.</li>
</ul>


PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US listed China companies.
The Hong Kong visit was on the back of the 26th Aug 2022 announcement by PCAOB and CSRC that they had entered into an agreement with US authorities for access.
In this note, we'll talk about the latest developments, possible outcomes and implications.


China ADRs Delisting - Friday Could Be Judgment Day for over US$800bn Mcap of Stocks

Greater China Equity Long/Short Analyst

Eric Chen

<ul>
<li>BILIBILI shares have rallied more than 200% since early November on prospects of China exiting zero-COVID, short covering, and accelerated breakeven timeline.</li>
<li>Yet simply achieving breakeven doesn’t justify its US$10 billion valuation. It has to be accompanied by decent profitable growth - an unlikely scenario given the aggressive downsizing needed for breakeven.</li>
<li>BILI’s businesses also entail structurally low margin. Stock could easily de-rate by 30% or more when growth euphoria recedes and disappointed profitability checks in during 2023.</li>
</ul>


BILIBILI shares have rallied more than 200% since early November on prospects of China exiting zero-COVID, short covering, and accelerated breakeven timeline.
Yet simply achieving breakeven doesn’t justify its US$10 billion valuation. It has to be accompanied by decent profitable growth - an unlikely scenario given the aggressive downsizing needed for breakeven.
BILI’s businesses also entail structurally low margin. Stock could easily de-rate by 30% or more when growth euphoria recedes and disappointed profitability checks in during 2023.


BILIBILI (BILI US): Can Achieving Breakeven Justify US$10bn Market Cap?

China

Bilibili Inc. provides online entertainment services. The Company offers a platform that covers a wide array of genres and media formats, including videos, live broadcasting, mobile games, animation, and comics. Bilibili serves customers in China.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Bilibili (BILI US)

[Bilibili (BILI US, BUY, TP US$22) Company Update]: Revenue Deceleration Is Still Likely to Happen

Despite concerns about its game pipeline, BILI's strong traffic and advertising story make it a buy with a target price of US$22.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Bilibili (BILI US) - 1Q25 Earnings Beat; Expect Strong Earnings Momentum to Continue in 2Q25

We fine-tune our SOTP-derived target price to US$26.5 (previous: US$26.4) which translates to 25x FY26E non-GAAP PE, reflecting the mixed impact of...

CMB International

2023 High Conviction - Anycolor (5032) Aiming at TSE Prime and TOPIX - And How!

ANYCOLOR (5032) is a curious company. "Expensive at 9x forward revs, but it sports a "Rule of 148" to April 2023, so 42x EPSe is not overly...

Travis Lundy

China ADRs Delisting - Friday Could Be Judgment Day for over US$800bn Mcap of Stocks

PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US...

Sumeet Singh

BILIBILI (BILI US): Can Achieving Breakeven Justify US$10bn Market Cap?

Simply achieving breakeven can't justify BILI's US$10bn market cap. Expect the company to be a leaner, profitable company yet without bright...

Eric Chen

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Bilibili (BILI US, BUY, TP US$22) Company Update]: Revenue Deceleration Is Still Likely to Happen

​Despite concerns about its game pipeline, BILI's strong traffic and advertising story make it a buy with a target price of US$22.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Bilibili (BILI US) - 1Q25 Earnings Beat; Expect Strong Earnings Momentum to Continue in 2Q25

We fine-tune our SOTP-derived target price to US$26.5 (previous: US$26.4) which translates to 25x FY26E non-GAAP PE, reflecting the mixed impact of...

CMB International

2023 High Conviction - Anycolor (5032) Aiming at TSE Prime and TOPIX - And How!

ANYCOLOR (5032) is a curious company. "Expensive at 9x forward revs, but it sports a "Rule of 148" to April 2023, so 42x EPSe is not overly...

Travis Lundy

China ADRs Delisting - Friday Could Be Judgment Day for over US$800bn Mcap of Stocks

PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US...

Sumeet Singh

BILIBILI (BILI US): Can Achieving Breakeven Justify US$10bn Market Cap?

Simply achieving breakeven can't justify BILI's US$10bn market cap. Expect the company to be a leaner, profitable company yet without bright...

Eric Chen

Despite concerns about its game pipeline, BILI's strong traffic and advertising story make it a buy with a target price of US$22.