Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>ExxonMobil’s Q3 revenue is expected to rise 6.3% YoY and 3.7% QoQ but its EPS is anticipated to fall 11% YoY and 5.6% QoQ.</li>
<li>Management expects upstream earnings to decline by USD 0.6-1 billion due to falling crude oil prices. Earnings from the energy products segment are also projected to drop significantly.</li>
<li>Exxon expects production in 2024 to be around 4.3 Moebd, with 1.2 Moebd coming from the Permian. The total capex for the year is estimated at USD 28 billion.</li>
</ul>


ExxonMobil’s Q3 revenue is expected to rise 6.3% YoY and 3.7% QoQ but its EPS is anticipated to fall 11% YoY and 5.6% QoQ.
Management expects upstream earnings to decline by USD 0.6-1 billion due to falling crude oil prices. Earnings from the energy products segment are also projected to drop significantly.
Exxon expects production in 2024 to be around 4.3 Moebd, with 1.2 Moebd coming from the Permian. The total capex for the year is estimated at USD 28 billion.


[Earnings Preview] Exxon's Q3 Profit Faces Pressure from Weak Oil Prices and Tight Refining Margins

<ul>
<li>Chevron's Q3 revenue is expected to decline by 7% YoY, with EPS projected to fall 8.9% due to contracting refining margins and lower price realisations.</li>
<li>The early September plunge in oil prices may further squeeze already tight refining margins. Management anticipates a slowdown in output due to increased maintenance in Q3.</li>
<li>Chevron became the most shorted large-cap stock in the US in August, with shares shorted increasing by over USD 200 million amid growing bearish sentiment.</li>
</ul>


Chevron's Q3 revenue is expected to decline by 7% YoY, with EPS projected to fall 8.9% due to contracting refining margins and lower price realisations.
The early September plunge in oil prices may further squeeze already tight refining margins. Management anticipates a slowdown in output due to increased maintenance in Q3.
Chevron became the most shorted large-cap stock in the US in August, with shares shorted increasing by over USD 200 million amid growing bearish sentiment.


[Earnings Preview] Chevron Faces Pressure from Tight Refining Margins and Increased Maintenance

<ul>
<li>Schlumberger’s Q3 2024 revenue is projected to increase by 12% YoY and EPS by 15.4%, driven by international growth, digital sales, and cost-efficiency programs.</li>
<li>Management expects 2024 EBITDA margin to reach or exceed 25%, driven by stronger H2 performance led by seasonally higher year-end digital and product sales.</li>
<li>Schlumberger announced a milestone in sustainable lithium production and secured significant contracts through its carbon capture and OneSubsea joint ventures.</li>
</ul>


Schlumberger’s Q3 2024 revenue is projected to increase by 12% YoY and EPS by 15.4%, driven by international growth, digital sales, and cost-efficiency programs.
Management expects 2024 EBITDA margin to reach or exceed 25%, driven by stronger H2 performance led by seasonally higher year-end digital and product sales.
Schlumberger announced a milestone in sustainable lithium production and secured significant contracts through its carbon capture and OneSubsea joint ventures.


[Earnings Preview] Schlumberger Set for Q3 Growth on Global Demand and Seasonal Boost

AI and Global Deep Tech, Mint Finance

Uttkarsh Kohli

AI and Global Deep Tech

<ul>
<li>Crucial Vote: Shareholders are voting on Musk's $56 billion compensation deal and Tesla's reincorporation in Texas, pivotal decisions for the company's direction.</li>
<li>High Stakes: The outcome will determine Musk's commitment to Tesla, potentially shifting his focus to other ventures and impacting Tesla's operations.</li>
<li>Institutional Opposition: Significant resistance from institutional investors and logistical issues for global shareholders create uncertainty. Abstaining from voting counts as a vote against, hindering Elon-supporting retail investors.</li>
</ul>


Crucial Vote: Shareholders are voting on Musk's $56 billion compensation deal and Tesla's reincorporation in Texas, pivotal decisions for the company's direction.
High Stakes: The outcome will determine Musk's commitment to Tesla, potentially shifting his focus to other ventures and impacting Tesla's operations.
Institutional Opposition: Significant resistance from institutional investors and logistical issues for global shareholders create uncertainty. Abstaining from voting counts as a vote against, hindering Elon-supporting retail investors.


Elon Set to Lose $56B Incentive? If So, Will Tesla's AI Shift to XAI?

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing / Equity Bottom-Up

Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (388 HK)

<ul>
<li>The top line of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-exchanges-clearing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:490:1" rel="noopener">HKEX (388 HK)</a> is down 7% YoY, the next major income line is down 3% YoY while operating costs are up 8% YoY, in 1Q24.</li>
<li>Average daily turnover is down 22% YoY, and to us this is the main story, a marginalization of the Hong Kong Exchange. </li>
<li>Geopolitical risks remain high, the historical positioning of Hong Kong is less relevant today, with worsening economic concerns in China, in close proximity. </li>
</ul>


The top line of HKEX (388 HK) is down 7% YoY, the next major income line is down 3% YoY while operating costs are up 8% YoY, in 1Q24.
Average daily turnover is down 22% YoY, and to us this is the main story, a marginalization of the Hong Kong Exchange. 
Geopolitical risks remain high, the historical positioning of Hong Kong is less relevant today, with worsening economic concerns in China, in close proximity. 


HKEX - Revenue Down, Investment Income Down, Operating Costs Up, Will It All Reverse?

United States

BlackRock, Inc. provides investment management services. The Company offers investment, advisory, and risk management services. BlackRock serves individuals, families, educational, governments, insurance companies, and non profit organizations worldwide.

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BlackRock (BLK US)

[Earnings Preview] Exxon's Q3 Profit Faces Pressure from Weak Oil Prices and Tight Refining Margins

Falling crude prices and tightening refining margins are expected to hit Q3 profits. Analysts predict a dip in EPS but see revenue growth. Exxon’s...

Mint Finance

[Earnings Preview] Chevron Faces Pressure from Tight Refining Margins and Increased Maintenance

Chevron’s short-term outlook is gloomy due to weak oil prices and global oil demand amid regulatory complications with its Hess purchase. In Q3,...

Mint Finance

[Earnings Preview] Schlumberger Set for Q3 Growth on Global Demand and Seasonal Boost

SLB's international operations are set to drive Q3 growth, offsetting North American weakness. Key advancements in carbon capture and lithium...

Mint Finance

Elon Set to Lose $56B Incentive? If So, Will Tesla's AI Shift to XAI?

Shareholders voting on Musk's $56 billion compensation deal and Tesla's reincorporation in Texas, pivotal decisions with potential impact on...

Mint Finance

HKEX - Revenue Down, Investment Income Down, Operating Costs Up, Will It All Reverse?

The direction of most line items are poor and this is not likely to reverse. The top line decline is especially severe as is average daily...

Daniel Tabbush

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Earnings Preview] Exxon's Q3 Profit Faces Pressure from Weak Oil Prices and Tight Refining Margins

Falling crude prices and tightening refining margins are expected to hit Q3 profits. Analysts predict a dip in EPS but see revenue growth. Exxon’s...

Mint Finance

[Earnings Preview] Chevron Faces Pressure from Tight Refining Margins and Increased Maintenance

Chevron’s short-term outlook is gloomy due to weak oil prices and global oil demand amid regulatory complications with its Hess purchase. In Q3,...

Mint Finance

[Earnings Preview] Schlumberger Set for Q3 Growth on Global Demand and Seasonal Boost

SLB's international operations are set to drive Q3 growth, offsetting North American weakness. Key advancements in carbon capture and lithium...

Mint Finance

Elon Set to Lose $56B Incentive? If So, Will Tesla's AI Shift to XAI?

​Shareholders voting on Musk's $56 billion compensation deal and Tesla's reincorporation in Texas, pivotal decisions with potential impact on...

Mint Finance

HKEX - Revenue Down, Investment Income Down, Operating Costs Up, Will It All Reverse?

The direction of most line items are poor and this is not likely to reverse. The top line decline is especially severe as is average daily...

Daniel Tabbush

Shareholders voting on Musk's $56 billion compensation deal and Tesla's reincorporation in Texas, pivotal decisions with potential impact on...