HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We preliminarily estimate TOP TOY may be valued at 19.1-40.3% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/miniso-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36659:1" rel="noopener">MINISO Group Holding (9896 HK)</a>'s market capitalisation, though there are still a lot of moving parts.  </li>
<li>TOP TOY is doing well in FY24 with a 41.1% surge in GMV, and for 1Q25, its revenue grew by 58.9%, reflecting exciting growth prospects.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bloks-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43648:1" rel="noopener">Bloks Group (325 HK)</a> is a better comparable as its revenue is 2.3x TOP TOY's, but its profit is 8x. A successful TOP TOY spin-off should benefit Miniso.</li>
</ul>


We preliminarily estimate TOP TOY may be valued at 19.1-40.3% of MINISO Group Holding (9896 HK)'s market capitalisation, though there are still a lot of moving parts.  
TOP TOY is doing well in FY24 with a 41.1% surge in GMV, and for 1Q25, its revenue grew by 58.9%, reflecting exciting growth prospects.

Bloks Group (325 HK) is a better comparable as its revenue is 2.3x TOP TOY's, but its profit is 8x. A successful TOP TOY spin-off should benefit Miniso.


MINISO Group (9896 HK): Assessing the TOP TOY Spin-Off

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Equity Capital Markets

52TOYS Development / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>52TOYS Development filed to go public in Hong Kong. The Beijing-based toymaker is planning H-share listing that could raise up to $200M.</li>
<li>In my second insight about 52TOYS IPO, I discuss IPO valuation, examine competitive landscape and focus on comparable company analysis.</li>
<li>52TOYS manages 35 proprietary IPs and 80 licensed IPs, including pop, sci-fi and cultural IPs. The company collaborates with 400+ distributors, covering 20,000+ sales outlets. </li>
</ul>


52TOYS Development filed to go public in Hong Kong. The Beijing-based toymaker is planning H-share listing that could raise up to $200M.
In my second insight about 52TOYS IPO, I discuss IPO valuation, examine competitive landscape and focus on comparable company analysis.
52TOYS manages 35 proprietary IPs and 80 licensed IPs, including pop, sci-fi and cultural IPs. The company collaborates with 400+ distributors, covering 20,000+ sales outlets. 


52TOYS Development IPO Valuation Analysis: Modest Upside Vs. Series C+ Round Valuation Looks Fair

TOP TOY International Group / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>TOP TOY is expected to IPO in 2026. The company has completed a ~$60M Series A round that was led by Temasek at a ~$1.3B post-money valuation in July.</li>
<li>In my insight, I discuss IPO valuation, update relative valuation table and examine competitive landscape among domestic and international toymakers.</li>
<li>TOP TOY revenue growth accelerated in 2025 coupled with improving profitability and growing free cash flows. TOP TOY was a major growth engine for MINISO’s business in 3Q.</li>
</ul>


TOP TOY is expected to IPO in 2026. The company has completed a ~$60M Series A round that was led by Temasek at a ~$1.3B post-money valuation in July.
In my insight, I discuss IPO valuation, update relative valuation table and examine competitive landscape among domestic and international toymakers.
TOP TOY revenue growth accelerated in 2025 coupled with improving profitability and growing free cash flows. TOP TOY was a major growth engine for MINISO’s business in 3Q.


TOP TOY IPO Valuation Analysis: Is TOP TOY The Next Breakout IPO in Hong Kong?

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

<ul>
<li>Relying on MINISO’s mature retail system, TOP TOY has achieved scale accumulation rapidly.Real challenge lies in whether it can continuously create "blockbuster proprietary IPs" and reduce reliance on licensing model.</li>
<li>Due to smaller revenue proportion of proprietary IPs/overseas revenue and lower profit margin, valuation of TOP TOY should be lower than Pop Mart, but would be higher than MINISO.</li>
<li>If based on 2025 forecast, valuation is RMB9.3-11.2 billion. So, post-money valuation of US$1.3 billion after Series A financing is not cheap. Valuation premium space after IPO may be lower-than-expected.</li>
</ul>


Relying on MINISO’s mature retail system, TOP TOY has achieved scale accumulation rapidly.Real challenge lies in whether it can continuously create "blockbuster proprietary IPs" and reduce reliance on licensing model.
Due to smaller revenue proportion of proprietary IPs/overseas revenue and lower profit margin, valuation of TOP TOY should be lower than Pop Mart, but would be higher than MINISO.
If based on 2025 forecast, valuation is RMB9.3-11.2 billion. So, post-money valuation of US$1.3 billion after Series A financing is not cheap. Valuation premium space after IPO may be lower-than-expected.


Pre-IPO TOP TOY International Group - The Industry, the Business and the Valuation Outlook

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of November 28th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Alibaba, Kuaishou, CMB, Tencent, SMIC, Xiaomi.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of November 28th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Alibaba, Kuaishou, CMB, Tencent, SMIC, Xiaomi.


HK Connect Flows Weekly (Nov 28th): Alibaba, Kuaishou, CMB, Tencent, SMIC, Xiaomi

China

Bloks Group Limited designs toys. The Company develops and manufactures characters toys, assembly toys, and other products. Bloks Group markets its products throughout China.

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Bloks Group (325 HK)

MINISO Group (9896 HK): Assessing the TOP TOY Spin-Off

Preliminary estimates suggest TOP TOY may be valued at 19.1-40.3% of Miniso's market capitalisation, with strong growth prospects and potential...

Osbert Tang, CFA

52TOYS Development IPO Valuation Analysis: Modest Upside Vs. Series C+ Round Valuation Looks Fair

Beijing-based 52TOYS files to go public and plans H-share listing in Hong Kong, aiming to raise up to $200M. In my second insight I discuss...

Andrei Zakharov

TOP TOY IPO Valuation Analysis: Is TOP TOY The Next Breakout IPO in Hong Kong?

TOP TOY, a fast-growing pop-culture collectibles brand company, is preparing for HK IPO. I have positive view of upcoming IPO and believe the...

Andrei Zakharov

Pre-IPO TOP TOY International Group - The Industry, the Business and the Valuation Outlook

TOP TOY's success hinges on creating blockbuster proprietary IPs to reduce reliance on licensing model. Due to low profit margin, valuation will...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

HK Connect Flows Weekly (Nov 28th): Alibaba, Kuaishou, CMB, Tencent, SMIC, Xiaomi

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Alibaba, Kuaishou, CMB, Tencent, SMIC, Xiaomi.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Dividend (Yield)

MINISO Group (9896 HK): Assessing the TOP TOY Spin-Off

​Preliminary estimates suggest TOP TOY may be valued at 19.1-40.3% of Miniso's market capitalisation, with strong growth prospects and potential...

Osbert Tang, CFA

52TOYS Development IPO Valuation Analysis: Modest Upside Vs. Series C+ Round Valuation Looks Fair

​Beijing-based 52TOYS files to go public and plans H-share listing in Hong Kong, aiming to raise up to $200M. In my second insight I discuss...

Andrei Zakharov

TOP TOY IPO Valuation Analysis: Is TOP TOY The Next Breakout IPO in Hong Kong?

TOP TOY, a fast-growing pop-culture collectibles brand company, is preparing for HK IPO. I have positive view of upcoming IPO and believe the...

Andrei Zakharov

Pre-IPO TOP TOY International Group - The Industry, the Business and the Valuation Outlook

​TOP TOY's success hinges on creating blockbuster proprietary IPs to reduce reliance on licensing model. Due to low profit margin, valuation will...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

HK Connect Flows Weekly (Nov 28th): Alibaba, Kuaishou, CMB, Tencent, SMIC, Xiaomi

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Alibaba, Kuaishou, CMB, Tencent, SMIC, Xiaomi.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Preliminary estimates suggest TOP TOY may be valued at 19.1-40.3% of Miniso's market capitalisation, with strong growth prospects and potential...

Beijing-based 52TOYS files to go public and plans H-share listing in Hong Kong, aiming to raise up to $200M. In my second insight I discuss...

TOP TOY's success hinges on creating blockbuster proprietary IPs to reduce reliance on licensing model. Due to low profit margin, valuation will...