Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There have been 14 new listings on the Main Board of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-exchanges-clearing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:490:1" rel="noopener">HKEX</a> in Q1. One listing is a transfer from the GEM Board and one is a De-SPAC.</li>
<li>Of the 14 stocks, we see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mixue-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40623:1" rel="noopener">Mixue Group (2097 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guming-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40622:1" rel="noopener">Guming Holdings (1364 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bloks-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43648:1" rel="noopener">Bloks Group (1850960D CH)</a> as potential HSCI inclusions in June.</li>
<li>There are no lock-up expiries in the stocks ahead of inclusion in Southbound Stock Connect and the low float could take the stocks higher ahead of the index inclusion announcement.</li>
</ul>


There have been 14 new listings on the Main Board of the HKEX in Q1. One listing is a transfer from the GEM Board and one is a De-SPAC.
Of the 14 stocks, we see Mixue Group (2097 HK), Guming Holdings (1364 HK) and Bloks Group (1850960D CH) as potential HSCI inclusions in June.
There are no lock-up expiries in the stocks ahead of inclusion in Southbound Stock Connect and the low float could take the stocks higher ahead of the index inclusion announcement.


HSCI Index Rebalance Preview: Three Hot Inclusions to Stock Connect in June

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher, ORTEX

Dimitris Ioannidis

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Nanshan Aluminium International Holdings / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nanshan-aluminium-international-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43976:1" rel="noopener">Nanshan Aluminium (2610 HK)</a> is forecasted to fail the fcap thresholds of both Global indices in 2025 due to low IPO free float.</li>
<li>The free float is <em>not</em> expected to increase upon lock-up expiry because of strategic Cornerstone and substantial shareholdings.</li>
<li>Probability of addition to Global indices increases for the first time in March and May 2026 following the expected omission of strategic Cornerstone holdings from filings thus free float.</li>
</ul>



Nanshan Aluminium (2610 HK) is forecasted to fail the fcap thresholds of both Global indices in 2025 due to low IPO free float.
The free float is not expected to increase upon lock-up expiry because of strategic Cornerstone and substantial shareholdings.
Probability of addition to Global indices increases for the first time in March and May 2026 following the expected omission of strategic Cornerstone holdings from filings thus free float.


Nanshan Aluminium (2610 HK): Low IPO Free Float Prevents Global Index Inclusion Despite $2.4B Mcap

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guming-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40622:1" rel="noopener">Guming Holdings (1364 HK)</a> is forecasted to initially fail the fcap threshold for both global indices due to an IPO free float of ~6%.</li>
<li>The security is expected to be added at the global index's March 2026 review as the lock-up expiry's fcap increase becomes effective post September 2025 cut-off date.</li>
<li>The security will be eligible for the other global index at the May 2026 review following the 12-month lock-up expiry of the undisclosed shareholders.</li>
</ul>



Guming Holdings (1364 HK) is forecasted to initially fail the fcap threshold for both global indices due to an IPO free float of ~6%.
The security is expected to be added at the global index's March 2026 review as the lock-up expiry's fcap increase becomes effective post September 2025 cut-off date.
The security will be eligible for the other global index at the May 2026 review following the 12-month lock-up expiry of the undisclosed shareholders.


Guming (1364 HK): Global Index Inclusion Not Coming Soon

Yibin City Commercial Bank / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yibin-city-commercial-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39930:1" rel="noopener">Yibin City Commercial Bank Co Ltd (2596 HK)</a> is scheduled to debut on the HKEX on 13 January 2025 at a market capitalization of ~$1.6bn.</li>
<li>The IPO free float is 100% as the offered shares represent all the listed shares. However, the significant amount of unlisted shares result in a low fcap.</li>
<li>The security can be added at the June 2025 review if the stock price mimics the IPO debut of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bloks-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43648:1" rel="noopener">Bloks (325 HK)</a> and surges by ~84%.</li>
</ul>



Yibin City Commercial Bank Co Ltd (2596 HK) is scheduled to debut on the HKEX on 13 January 2025 at a market capitalization of ~$1.6bn.
The IPO free float is 100% as the offered shares represent all the listed shares. However, the significant amount of unlisted shares result in a low fcap.
The security can be added at the June 2025 review if the stock price mimics the IPO debut of Bloks (325 HK) and surges by ~84%.


Yibin Bank (2596 HK): 100% IPO Float Fails to Secure Global Index Inclusion

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>2024 marked our ninth year covering Equity Capital Markets in Asia-Pacific. In 2024, IPO volumes were mainly driven by India, even as Hong Kong showed signs of turning a corner.</li>
<li>We ended 2024 with an accuracy rate of 79.4% across 68 IPOs that we covered and 68.8% across 109 placements.</li>
<li>For those not familiar with our coverage, we aim to cover all IPOs and placements with a minimum deal size of US$100m across Asia-Pacific, including China ADRs.</li>
</ul>


2024 marked our ninth year covering Equity Capital Markets in Asia-Pacific. In 2024, IPO volumes were mainly driven by India, even as Hong Kong showed signs of turning a corner.
We ended 2024 with an accuracy rate of 79.4% across 68 IPOs that we covered and 68.8% across 109 placements.
For those not familiar with our coverage, we aim to cover all IPOs and placements with a minimum deal size of US$100m across Asia-Pacific, including China ADRs.


Aequitas 2024 IPOs and Placements Performance Review-India Driving Volumes as HK Shows Signs of Life

China

Bloks Group Limited designs toys. The Company develops and manufactures characters toys, assembly toys, and other products. Bloks Group markets its products throughout China.

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Bloks Group (325 HK)

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview: Three Hot Inclusions to Stock Connect in June

There could be 3 adds to the HSCI and Southbound Stock Connect in June. There are no lock-up expiries in the stocks prior to June and the low float...

Brian Freitas

Nanshan Aluminium (2610 HK): Low IPO Free Float Prevents Global Index Inclusion Despite $2.4B Mcap

Probability of addition to Global indices increases for the first time in March and May 2026 following the expected omission of strategic...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Guming (1364 HK): Global Index Inclusion Not Coming Soon

Guming to debut on 12 February with an mcap of $3.1bn but expected to fail global index fcap thresholds due to an IPO free float of 6%. Earliest...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Yibin Bank (2596 HK): 100% IPO Float Fails to Secure Global Index Inclusion

Yibin Bank (2596 HK) is expected to be excluded from the Global Index at June 2025 review due to low fcap except if the stock price surges by ~84%...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Aequitas 2024 IPOs and Placements Performance Review-India Driving Volumes as HK Shows Signs of Life

2024 marked our ninth year covering Equity Capital Markets in Asia-Pacific. We had an accuracy rate of 79.4% for IPOs and 68.8% for placements in...

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview: Three Hot Inclusions to Stock Connect in June

There could be 3 adds to the HSCI and Southbound Stock Connect in June. There are no lock-up expiries in the stocks prior to June and the low float...

Brian Freitas

Nanshan Aluminium (2610 HK): Low IPO Free Float Prevents Global Index Inclusion Despite $2.4B Mcap

Probability of addition to Global indices increases for the first time in March and May 2026 following the expected omission of strategic...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Guming (1364 HK): Global Index Inclusion Not Coming Soon

​Guming to debut on 12 February with an mcap of $3.1bn but expected to fail global index fcap thresholds due to an IPO free float of 6%. Earliest...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Yibin Bank (2596 HK): 100% IPO Float Fails to Secure Global Index Inclusion

​Yibin Bank (2596 HK) is expected to be excluded from the Global Index at June 2025 review due to low fcap except if the stock price surges by ~84%...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Aequitas 2024 IPOs and Placements Performance Review-India Driving Volumes as HK Shows Signs of Life

2024 marked our ninth year covering Equity Capital Markets in Asia-Pacific. We had an accuracy rate of 79.4% for IPOs and 68.8% for placements in...

Sumeet Singh

Guming to debut on 12 February with an mcap of $3.1bn but expected to fail global index fcap thresholds due to an IPO free float of 6%. Earliest...

Yibin Bank (2596 HK) is expected to be excluded from the Global Index at June 2025 review due to low fcap except if the stock price surges by ~84%...