Equity & Credit Research

Duncan Chan

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The market values <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-shougang-lanzatech-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:55324:1" rel="noopener">Beijing Shougang Lanzatech Technology (2553 HK)</a> primarily as a low-carbon ethanol producer, underestimating its transition toward an industrial carbon-conversion platform driven by technology, engineering and licensing.</li>
<li>Four commercial plants have proven gas fermentation at industrial scale. Near-term losses keep focus on whether technology licensing and integrated solutions can deliver recurring, higher-quality earnings beyond manufacturing.</li>
<li>We remain constructive. Our bear, base and bull cases imply valuations of HK$20–22, HK$30–33 and HK$40+, respectively, depending on utilisation, technology licensing and integrated solutions becoming meaningful earnings drivers.</li>
</ul>


The market values Beijing Shougang Lanzatech Technology (2553 HK) primarily as a low-carbon ethanol producer, underestimating its transition toward an industrial carbon-conversion platform driven by technology, engineering and licensing.
Four commercial plants have proven gas fermentation at industrial scale. Near-term losses keep focus on whether technology licensing and integrated solutions can deliver recurring, higher-quality earnings beyond manufacturing.
We remain constructive. Our bear, base and bull cases imply valuations of HK$20–22, HK$30–33 and HK$40+, respectively, depending on utilisation, technology licensing and integrated solutions becoming meaningful earnings drivers.


Shougang LanzaTech: Beyond Ethanol Toward Industrial Process Technology

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We are upgrading our outlook to bullish on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM). Market dynamics have improved considerably ever since major bullish false breakdowns...</li>
<li>...at 6480-6520 on the SPX, 24,000 on Nasdaq futures (NQ), and $245 on the IWM, with all of them now breaking out to all-time highs.</li>
<li>Everything we see suggests bulls remain in control, so we are buying any pullbacks for the foreseeable future to the 20-day MA or 21-day EMAs on SPX, QQQ, and IWM.</li>
</ul>


We are upgrading our outlook to bullish on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM). Market dynamics have improved considerably ever since major bullish false breakdowns...
...at 6480-6520 on the SPX, 24,000 on Nasdaq futures (NQ), and $245 on the IWM, with all of them now breaking out to all-time highs.
Everything we see suggests bulls remain in control, so we are buying any pullbacks for the foreseeable future to the 20-day MA or 21-day EMAs on SPX, QQQ, and IWM.


Upgrading Outlook to Bullish; Buy the Dips Market; Downgrading Staples to Market Weight

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and SPX is above 6028-6059 (up from 5700-5785 as it is highly unlikely to be tested).</li>
<li>Some will point to August seasonality as a reason to be cautious; we simply are not seeing any signs that suggest a meaningful pullback is imminent.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and SPX is above 6028-6059 (up from 5700-5785 as it is highly unlikely to be tested).
Some will point to August seasonality as a reason to be cautious; we simply are not seeing any signs that suggest a meaningful pullback is imminent.


Market Extended Entering Seasonally Weak August; Meaningful Pullback Imminent? Not Likely

Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

<ul><li>The WTR Sustainable Index was down 4.5% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (down 2.1%), the cex (down 4.0%) and the Nasdaq Index (up 5.7%).</li><li>Energy Technology (13.5% of the index) was down 1.6%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (48.3% of the index) was down 3.8%, ClimateTech Mining was down 3.4%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions (20.6% of index) was down 5.5%.</li><li>Top 10 Performers: GRB, BE, WKHS, MULN, LILM, HLGN, FGPHF, <span style="font-size: var(--content-font-size);">AMPS, NEOV, NOVA</span></li></ul>

The WTR Sustainable Index was down 4.5% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (down 2.1%), the cex (down 4.0%) and the Nasdaq Index (up 5.7%).Energy Technology (13.5% of the index) was down 1.6%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (48.3% of the index) was down 3.8%, ClimateTech Mining was down 3.4%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions (20.6% of index) was down 5.5%.Top 10 Performers: GRB, BE, WKHS, MULN, LILM, HLGN, FGPHF, AMPS, NEOV, NOVA

Sustainable Investing Surveyor Focus on REX American Resources Corp. (REX)

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The US energy transition accelerated in 2Q26 across storage, transport, and critical minerals. </li><li>A record 20.2 GWh of energy storage was installed, led by utility-scale projects and Arizona’s 6.2 GWh surge, prompting SEIA/Benchmark to raise 2030 forecasts to 683 GWh cumulative.</li><li>In EV charging, new data shows multi-connector, ~100 kW sites achieve higher utilization and revenue than ultra-high-power, low-plug stations.</li></ul>

The US energy transition accelerated in 2Q26 across storage, transport, and critical minerals. A record 20.2 GWh of energy storage was installed, led by utility-scale projects and Arizona’s 6.2 GWh surge, prompting SEIA/Benchmark to raise 2030 forecasts to 683 GWh cumulative.In EV charging, new data shows multi-connector, ~100 kW sites achieve higher utilization and revenue than ultra-high-power, low-plug stations.

Sustainable Investing Surveyor : Focus on Clean Energy Fuels Corp. (CLNE)

United States

Bloom Energy Corporation manufactures power generation equipment. The Company offers on-site power generation systems that utilizes fuel cell technology to generate electricity. Bloom Energy serves banking, health care, data centers, media and communication, food and beverage, logistics, technology, and utilities industries in the United States.

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Bloom Energy Corp (BE US)

Shougang LanzaTech: Beyond Ethanol Toward Industrial Process Technology

The market values Shougang LanzaTech as a low-carbon ethanol producer. We believe technology licensing and integrated solutions could gradually...

Duncan Chan

Upgrading Outlook to Bullish; Buy the Dips Market; Downgrading Staples to Market Weight

Upgrading Outlook to Bullish $SPX $QQQ $IWM $IJH; Buy the Dips Market; Downgrading Staples to Market Weight $XLP; Add to Growth and Technology $IWF...

Vermilion Research

Market Extended Entering Seasonally Weak August; Meaningful Pullback Imminent? Not Likely

Market Extended Entering Seasonally Weak August; Still Little Evidence that a Meaningful Pullback is Imminent. Still Bullish $SPX $QQQ since 4/22...

Vermilion Research

Sustainable Investing Surveyor Focus on REX American Resources Corp. (REX)

The WTR Sustainable Index was down 4.5% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (down 2.1%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 4.0%) and the Nasdaq Index (up 5.7%).

Water Tower Research

Sustainable Investing Surveyor : Focus on Clean Energy Fuels Corp. (CLNE)

A record 20.2 GWh of energy storage was installed, led by utility-scale projects and Arizona’s 6.2 GWh surge, prompting SEIA/Benchmark to raise...

Water Tower Research

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