Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of October 31st.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for CNOOC, SMIC, Alibaba, China Mobile, CSPC Pharma, Tencent, Meituan, Li Auto.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of October 31st.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for CNOOC, SMIC, Alibaba, China Mobile, CSPC Pharma, Tencent, Meituan, Li Auto.


HK Connect Flows Weekly (Oct 31st): CNOOC, SMIC, Alibaba, China Mobile, CSPC Pharma, Tencent

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The decision to invest a large sum of money to increase Hong Kong and Mainland China banking exposure, seems oddly timed</li>
<li>There is no exceptional discount to drive this decision, and there is unlikely to be any major resumption former times</li>
<li>Granular data on credit metrics from HSB shows marked weakness, deterioration, and with privatization, we may only see this data one more time.</li>
</ul>


The decision to invest a large sum of money to increase Hong Kong and Mainland China banking exposure, seems oddly timed
There is no exceptional discount to drive this decision, and there is unlikely to be any major resumption former times
Granular data on credit metrics from HSB shows marked weakness, deterioration, and with privatization, we may only see this data one more time.


HSBC - Privatization of Hang Seng Bank Should Mean Limits on Granular Credit Metrics After 2H25

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Bank (11 HK)</a> announced a scheme privatisation offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:516:1" rel="noopener">HSBC Holdings (5 HK)</a> at HK$155, a 30.3% premium to the undisturbed price.  </li>
<li>Based on an estimated 2025 third dividend of HK$1.3 per share, the total consideration is HK$156.30 per share. The offer price is final.</li>
<li>The offer is attractive compared to peer multiples and historical trading ranges. At the current price and for a late March payment, the gross/annualised spread is 2.9%/6.2%.</li>
</ul>



Hang Seng Bank (11 HK) announced a scheme privatisation offer from HSBC Holdings (5 HK) at HK$155, a 30.3% premium to the undisturbed price.  
Based on an estimated 2025 third dividend of HK$1.3 per share, the total consideration is HK$156.30 per share. The offer price is final.
The offer is attractive compared to peer multiples and historical trading ranges. At the current price and for a late March payment, the gross/annualised spread is 2.9%/6.2%.


Hang Seng Bank (11 HK): HSBC (5 HK)’s Scheme Privatisation Is a Done Deal

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>There are some improvements in HK domestic credit growth, but not in the key property sector, which continues to see contraction, at worsening pace</li>
<li>LDR contraction in HK is another concern, for NIM, core interest income, while China credit metrics remain a concern - not only domestic HK.</li>
<li>Singapore banks also exposed to HK and to Mainland China, it is not only HK local banks which bear this risk. Chailease from Taiwan is another good example.</li>
</ul>


There are some improvements in HK domestic credit growth, but not in the key property sector, which continues to see contraction, at worsening pace
LDR contraction in HK is another concern, for NIM, core interest income, while China credit metrics remain a concern - not only domestic HK.
Singapore banks also exposed to HK and to Mainland China, it is not only HK local banks which bear this risk. Chailease from Taiwan is another good example.


HK Banks - Credit Growth Improves, but Property Worsening. LDR Continues to Move Lower.

<ul>
<li>Dah Sing saw its Macau and China credit costs rise by 4x in 1H25 YoY</li>
<li>Headline total provision rise of 34% YoY gives a flattering view of credit metrics</li>
<li>Loan migration from benign to worse overdue loan buckets is dramatic, not visible in headlines</li>
</ul>


Dah Sing saw its Macau and China credit costs rise by 4x in 1H25 YoY
Headline total provision rise of 34% YoY gives a flattering view of credit metrics
Loan migration from benign to worse overdue loan buckets is dramatic, not visible in headlines


HK Banks - Dah Sing's Credit Costs in Macau and China Rose 4x YoY in 1H25

Hong Kong

BOC Hong Kong (Holdings) Limited provides a comprehensive range of financial products and services to retail and corporate customers.  Its products include retail banking, corporate banking, and treasury services.  The Company operates its branches in Hong Kong and China.

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BOC Hong Kong (BOC HK) (2388 HK)

HK Connect Flows Weekly (Oct 31st): CNOOC, SMIC, Alibaba, China Mobile, CSPC Pharma, Tencent

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for CNOOC, SMIC, Alibaba, China Mobile, CSPC Pharma, Tencent,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HSBC - Privatization of Hang Seng Bank Should Mean Limits on Granular Credit Metrics After 2H25

$1.1bn hit from Madoff fraud. None of this is positive for HSBC. There can be increased operational risk req. Front office managers are likely to...

Daniel Tabbush

Hang Seng Bank (11 HK): HSBC (5 HK)’s Scheme Privatisation Is a Done Deal

The offer is attractive compared to peer multiples and historical trading ranges. At the current price and for a late March payment, the gross...

Arun George

HK Banks - Credit Growth Improves, but Property Worsening. LDR Continues to Move Lower.

New data on LDR, shows further contraction. This is partly driven by accelerating USD deposit growth at +20.5% YoY for July.

Daniel Tabbush

HK Banks - Dah Sing's Credit Costs in Macau and China Rose 4x YoY in 1H25

Dah Sing Financial shows 4x growth YoY in its Macau and China credit costs. This is not clearly visible, or its Overdue Loan migration, in headline...

Daniel Tabbush

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