Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to view the latest pullback as healthy and normal within the ongoing bull market on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and the EURO STOXX 50, as discussed April 18</li>
<li>Discussed last Thursday(4/18/24) how further downside may be limited with these indexes 4-5% off their highs, combined with ACWI-US testing gap support ($105) and the EURO STOXX50 testing 6-month uptrend. </li>
<li>So far, these supports have held strong, and Japan's TOPIX has also held strong above 2615 support -- with all producing strong bounces far this week.</li>
</ul>


We continue to view the latest pullback as healthy and normal within the ongoing bull market on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and the EURO STOXX 50, as discussed April 18
Discussed last Thursday(4/18/24) how further downside may be limited with these indexes 4-5% off their highs, combined with ACWI-US testing gap support ($105) and the EURO STOXX50 testing 6-month uptrend. 
So far, these supports have held strong, and Japan's TOPIX has also held strong above 2615 support -- with all producing strong bounces far this week.


Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Supports Holding on MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EAFE, and EM

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>BSE has attained a 20/7% notional/premium market share, largely driven by the rising popularity of its derivatives contracts</li><li>Among these, the SENSEX contract has matured, commanding ~40% of the market share, while the BANKEX is in its build phase, currently holding a 12% market share</li><li>We believe the derivative growth for BSE will continue to be led by (1) the scaling of the BANKEX contract, (2) the go-live of large discount brokers, (3) a higher volume of algo and proprietary traders, (4) an increase in active UCCs, and (5) greater participation of FPIs</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BSE has attained a 20/7% notional/premium market share, largely driven by the rising popularity of its derivatives contractsAmong these, the SENSEX contract has matured, commanding ~40% of the market share, while the BANKEX is in its build phase, currently holding a 12% market shareWe believe the derivative growth for BSE will continue to be led by (1) the scaling of the BANKEX contract, (2) the go-live of large discount brokers, (3) a higher volume of algo and proprietary traders, (4) an increase in active UCCs, and (5) greater participation of FPIsContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>LIC Housing Finance: LICHF’s earnings were ahead of our estimates due to sustained healthy NIMs, partially offset by muted loan growth (+5% YoY) and high credit costs (60bps)</li><li>LICHF’s NIMs continued to surprise positively at 3% (-4bps QoQ) due to muted balance sheet growth, however, the lower incremental spreads amidst elevated competitive intensity, moderation in demand and rising cost of funds are likely to normalise margins near steady state during FY25</li><li>Loan growth remains tepid (+5% YoY) across segments due to organisational and tech changes as per management and remains a key concern</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

LIC Housing Finance: LICHF’s earnings were ahead of our estimates due to sustained healthy NIMs, partially offset by muted loan growth (+5% YoY) and high credit costs (60bps)LICHF’s NIMs continued to surprise positively at 3% (-4bps QoQ) due to muted balance sheet growth, however, the lower incremental spreads amidst elevated competitive intensity, moderation in demand and rising cost of funds are likely to normalise margins near steady state during FY25Loan growth remains tepid (+5% YoY) across segments due to organisational and tech changes as per management and remains a key concernContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: LIC Housing Finance, BSE, Century Plyboards India

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Over a third of the way through the review period of the June rebalance, we see one potential index change with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wipro-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15360:1" rel="noopener">Wipro Ltd (WPRO IN)</a> in deletion zone.</li>
<li>There are a bunch of stocks that could be added to the index as a replacement and price changes over the rest of the review period are important.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to trade over 1x ADV and over 7x of delivery volume on the index changes, so there will be decent impact on the stocks.</li>
</ul>


Over a third of the way through the review period of the June rebalance, we see one potential index change with Wipro Ltd (WPRO IN) in deletion zone.
There are a bunch of stocks that could be added to the index as a replacement and price changes over the rest of the review period are important.
Passive trackers will need to trade over 1x ADV and over 7x of delivery volume on the index changes, so there will be decent impact on the stocks.


SENSEX Index Rebalance Preview: Likely Wipro Deletion Opens an Index Spot

<ul><li>ONGC: We maintain our ADD rating on ONGC with a target price of INR 208, based on oil and gas production growth at 6/9% CAGR over FY24-26E, attractive valuation of 4.7x Mar-25 EPS, a ~10% discount to 5-year average P/E of 5.2x, 0.7x Mar-25 P/Bv with RoE of ~16%, and a dividend yield of ~6%</li><li>However, this is offset by limited earnings potential, owing to the levy of a windfall tax on crude oil prices and a decline in the price of domestically produced APM gas</li><li>Q2FY24 reported EBITDA at INR 184bn (-2% YoY, -6% QoQ), coming in marginally below our estimate, owing to higher-than-expected statutory levies and other expenses</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

ONGC: We maintain our ADD rating on ONGC with a target price of INR 208, based on oil and gas production growth at 6/9% CAGR over FY24-26E, attractive valuation of 4.7x Mar-25 EPS, a ~10% discount to 5-year average P/E of 5.2x, 0.7x Mar-25 P/Bv with RoE of ~16%, and a dividend yield of ~6%However, this is offset by limited earnings potential, owing to the levy of a windfall tax on crude oil prices and a decline in the price of domestically produced APM gasQ2FY24 reported EBITDA at INR 184bn (-2% YoY, -6% QoQ), coming in marginally below our estimate, owing to higher-than-expected statutory levies and other expensesContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: ONGC, Eicher Motors, Trent, Berger Paints, BSE,

India

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Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE IN)

Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Supports Holding on MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EAFE, and EM

Upgrading Europe to Overweight EURO $STOXX 50 $FEZ; Supports Holding on MSCI $ACWI, $ACWX, $EFA, and $EEM. Latest 4-6% pullback remains healthy...

Vermilion Research

BSE: Gaining Strength. Maintain BUY

BSE has attained a 20/7% notional/premium market share, largely driven by the rising popularity of its derivatives contracts

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: LIC Housing Finance, BSE, Century Plyboards India

LIC Housing Finance: LICHF’s earnings were ahead of our estimates due to sustained healthy NIMs, partially offset by muted loan growth (+5% YoY)...

HDFC Securities

SENSEX Index Rebalance Preview: Likely Wipro Deletion Opens an Index Spot

Wipro is a potential deletion from the SENSEX in June. Adani Enterprises is in pole position, just ahead of Coal India. Passives need to trade over...

Brian Freitas

HSIE Results Daily: ONGC, Eicher Motors, Trent, Berger Paints, BSE,

We maintain our ADD rating on ONGC with a target price of INR 208, based on oil and gas production growth at 6/9% CAGR over FY24-26E, attractive...

HDFC Securities

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