Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Legal border crossings in/out of the US in December continued to weaken, including by air</li>
<li>By region, Northern crossings remain weakest; inbound West air crossings still up Y/Y</li>
<li>Numbers suggest tourism activity from Asian sources remains relatively resilient</li>
</ul>


Legal border crossings in/out of the US in December continued to weaken, including by air
By region, Northern crossings remain weakest; inbound West air crossings still up Y/Y
Numbers suggest tourism activity from Asian sources remains relatively resilient


December 2025 USCBP Data Shows US Border Crossing Activity Continued to Decline, Especially in North

<ul>
<li>Chinese authorities have confirmed an investigation into Trip.com anticompetitive practices</li>
<li>The company could face fines of 1% - 10% of 2025 net revenue (up to US$800 mn)</li>
<li>A less likely outcome could be sweeping changes to the company's business model; AVOID</li>
</ul>


Chinese authorities have confirmed an investigation into Trip.com anticompetitive practices
The company could face fines of 1% - 10% of 2025 net revenue (up to US$800 mn)
A less likely outcome could be sweeping changes to the company's business model; AVOID


Trip.com Subject of Antitrust Investigation | Potentially Faces Large Fine or Forced Change to Model

<ul>
<li>Both domestic and outbound air travel activity have improved in recent months</li>
<li>Chinese carriers are now enjoying unusually high load factors on outbound travel</li>
<li>Trip.com is a laggard vs the airlines, but it doesn't appear cheap to us</li>
</ul>


Both domestic and outbound air travel activity have improved in recent months
Chinese carriers are now enjoying unusually high load factors on outbound travel
Trip.com is a laggard vs the airlines, but it doesn't appear cheap to us


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Sudden Upturn in Domestic and Outbound Demand  (December 2025)

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Klook Technology Limited, a SoftBank-backed Asia’s leading platform for experiences and travel activities, filed for an IPO in the United States.</li>
<li>The company became a unicorn in 2018 and was valued at $1B+ in 2025. Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan and Morgan Stanley are the lead bankers on the upcoming offering.</li>
<li>As of the end of Sep-25, Klook platform served 10.7M+ annual transacting users, spanning 200+ geographic markets worldwide. Since its launch, the mobile app has been downloaded ~70M times.</li>
</ul>


Klook Technology Limited, a SoftBank-backed Asia’s leading platform for experiences and travel activities, filed for an IPO in the United States.
The company became a unicorn in 2018 and was valued at $1B+ in 2025. Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan and Morgan Stanley are the lead bankers on the upcoming offering.
As of the end of Sep-25, Klook platform served 10.7M+ annual transacting users, spanning 200+ geographic markets worldwide. Since its launch, the mobile app has been downloaded ~70M times.


Klook IPO Preview: Category Leader in APAC and Gateway for Asia’s Fast-Growing Experiences Economy

<ul>
<li>Revenue growth in Q3 (+15.5% Y/Y) held up reasonably well for Trip.com</li>
<li>But core margins continue to deteriorate: Adjusted EBITDA margin down -120 bps Y/Y</li>
<li>We still feel TCOM shares are pricey, and that earnings growth is unimpressive</li>
</ul>


Revenue growth in Q3 (+15.5% Y/Y) held up reasonably well for Trip.com
But core margins continue to deteriorate: Adjusted EBITDA margin down -120 bps Y/Y
We still feel TCOM shares are pricey, and that earnings growth is unimpressive


Trip.com Q325 Results | Revenue Growth OK | Core Margins Still Falling | Avoid

United States

Booking Holdings Inc. operates as an online travel company. The Company offers a platform that allows to make travel reservations with providers of travel services, as well as provides accommodation reservations, rentals cars, airline tickets, and vacation packages. Booking Holdings serves customers worldwide.

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Booking Holdings (BKNG US)

December 2025 USCBP Data Shows US Border Crossing Activity Continued to Decline, Especially in North

December data from US Customs and Border Protection show reduced border crossings in and out of the US. One bright spot is air crossings in the...

Tracking Traffic

Trip.com Subject of Antitrust Investigation | Potentially Faces Large Fine or Forced Change to Model

News of an antitrust investigation into Trip.com sent its shares plummeting last week. The company could face fines, changes to existing practices,...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Sudden Upturn in Domestic and Outbound Demand (December 2025)

The pace of air travel growth improved markedly in the October-November period, despite weakness in two key outbound markets. Although it's a...

Tracking Traffic

Klook IPO Preview: Category Leader in APAC and Gateway for Asia’s Fast-Growing Experiences Economy

Asia's leading platform for experiences and travel services, Klook, backed by SoftBank, filed to go public. Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, and Morgan...

Andrei Zakharov

Trip.com Q325 Results | Revenue Growth OK | Core Margins Still Falling | Avoid

Trip.com reported Q3 results on Monday after the US close. Revenue growth was fine, but core margins continue to fall. We view the shares as...

Tracking Traffic

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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December 2025 USCBP Data Shows US Border Crossing Activity Continued to Decline, Especially in North

December data from US Customs and Border Protection show reduced border crossings in and out of the US. One bright spot is air crossings in the...

Tracking Traffic

Trip.com Subject of Antitrust Investigation | Potentially Faces Large Fine or Forced Change to Model

News of an antitrust investigation into Trip.com sent its shares plummeting last week. The company could face fines, changes to existing practices,...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Sudden Upturn in Domestic and Outbound Demand (December 2025)

The pace of air travel growth improved markedly in the October-November period, despite weakness in two key outbound markets. Although it's a...

Tracking Traffic

Klook IPO Preview: Category Leader in APAC and Gateway for Asia’s Fast-Growing Experiences Economy

​Asia's leading platform for experiences and travel services, Klook, backed by SoftBank, filed to go public. Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, and Morgan...

Andrei Zakharov

Trip.com Q325 Results | Revenue Growth OK | Core Margins Still Falling | Avoid

Trip.com reported Q3 results on Monday after the US close. Revenue growth was fine, but core margins continue to fall. We view the shares as...

Tracking Traffic

Asia's leading platform for experiences and travel services, Klook, backed by SoftBank, filed to go public. Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, and Morgan...