Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Net Revenue growth accelerated to +23% Y/Y in Q424, far stronger than in Q224 and Q324</li>
<li>But costs and expenses grew even faster, leading to surprisingly sharp margin contraction</li>
<li>We no longer view Trip.com as an attractive play on Chinese travel; airlines may outperform</li>
</ul>


Net Revenue growth accelerated to +23% Y/Y in Q424, far stronger than in Q224 and Q324
But costs and expenses grew even faster, leading to surprisingly sharp margin contraction
We no longer view Trip.com as an attractive play on Chinese travel; airlines may outperform


Trip.com Q424 Results | Higher Costs Finally Arrive, And With a Vengeance

<ul>
<li>Late January timing of LNY holiday boosted last month's travel and tourism statistics</li>
<li>Chinese airlines are filling outbound flights, which should lift pricing &amp; margins (eventually)</li>
<li>Numbers suggest Chinese consumers eager to travel, but spending remains muted</li>
</ul>


Late January timing of LNY holiday boosted last month's travel and tourism statistics
Chinese airlines are filling outbound flights, which should lift pricing &amp; margins (eventually)
Numbers suggest Chinese consumers eager to travel, but spending remains muted


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | LNY Numbers Just OK | Airlines Filling Up | (February 2025)

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Booking Holdings' third-quarter earnings for 2024 reflected a robust performance, with significant improvements in key financial metrics, driven by strong demand, especially in the European and Asian markets.</li><li>The company reported an 8% year-over-year increase in room nights, with total bookings on Booking Holdings' platforms approaching 300 million for the quarter.</li><li>This growth translated into a 9% rise in revenue year-over-year, reaching $8 billion, and an adjusted EBITDA increase of 12% year-over-year to $3.7 billion.</li></ul>

Booking Holdings' third-quarter earnings for 2024 reflected a robust performance, with significant improvements in key financial metrics, driven by strong demand, especially in the European and Asian markets.The company reported an 8% year-over-year increase in room nights, with total bookings on Booking Holdings' platforms approaching 300 million for the quarter.This growth translated into a 9% rise in revenue year-over-year, reaching $8 billion, and an adjusted EBITDA increase of 12% year-over-year to $3.7 billion.

Booking Holdings Inc.: Can They Tackle The Risks Associated With Intensified Competition in the Global Market? - Major Drivers

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tongcheng-travel-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27363:1" rel="noopener">Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK)</a> is still suffering from cost pressure, with adjusted net profit increased by 10.9% in 2Q24, despite a 48.1% revenue growth.</li>
<li>Both GMV and MPU growth rates have slowed in 2Q24 when compared with 1Q24, and revenue may also decelerate in 2H24 given the higher base for comparison.</li>
<li>The market will need some time to see if the moderating earnings trend will sustain, negatively affecting investor interests. Potential earnings downgrade is also a challenge.</li>
</ul>



Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK) is still suffering from cost pressure, with adjusted net profit increased by 10.9% in 2Q24, despite a 48.1% revenue growth.
Both GMV and MPU growth rates have slowed in 2Q24 when compared with 1Q24, and revenue may also decelerate in 2H24 given the higher base for comparison.
The market will need some time to see if the moderating earnings trend will sustain, negatively affecting investor interests. Potential earnings downgrade is also a challenge.


Tongcheng Travel (780 HK): Seems like a Cost Issue

<ul><li>Booking Holdings, a prominent player in the global online travel market, reported its second quarter 2024 financial results, highlighting a performance that exceeded expectations in various key metrics including room nights, revenue, and adjusted EBITDA.</li><li>Room nights booked during the quarter grew by 7% year-over-year, achieving a total of 287 million.</li><li>Revenue and adjusted EBITDA both rose by 7% to $5.9 billion and $1.9 billion respectively, while adjusted earnings per share experienced an 11% increase.</li></ul>

Booking Holdings, a prominent player in the global online travel market, reported its second quarter 2024 financial results, highlighting a performance that exceeded expectations in various key metrics including room nights, revenue, and adjusted EBITDA.Room nights booked during the quarter grew by 7% year-over-year, achieving a total of 287 million.Revenue and adjusted EBITDA both rose by 7% to $5.9 billion and $1.9 billion respectively, while adjusted earnings per share experienced an 11% increase.

Booking Holdings: Their Strategy Of Expansion Into Alternative Accommodations Paying Off? - Major Drivers

United States

Booking Holdings Inc. operates as an online travel company. The Company offers a platform that allows to make travel reservations with providers of travel services, as well as provides accommodation reservations, rentals cars, airline tickets, and vacation packages. Booking Holdings serves customers worldwide.

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Booking Holdings (BKNG US)

Trip.com Q424 Results | Higher Costs Finally Arrive, And With a Vengeance

Trip.com's Q424 results showed a re-acceleration of top-line growth, but also a surprising surge in Cost of Revenue and Operating Expenses, which...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | LNY Numbers Just OK | Airlines Filling Up | (February 2025)

January and Lunar New Year travel activity data seem OK, but not spectacular. Chinese tourists seem eager to travel, but there are few signs they...

Tracking Traffic

Booking Holdings Inc.: Can They Tackle The Risks Associated With Intensified Competition in the Global Market? - Major Drivers

Booking Holdings' third-quarter earnings for 2024 reflected a robust performance, with significant improvements in key financial metrics, driven...

Baptista Research

Tongcheng Travel (780 HK): Seems like a Cost Issue

Tongcheng Travel faces cost pressure as adjusted net profit rises by 10.9% in 2Q24 despite strong revenue growth. Slowing growth and potential...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Booking Holdings: Their Strategy Of Expansion Into Alternative Accommodations Paying Off? - Major Drivers

Booking Holdings, a prominent player in the global online travel market, reported its second quarter 2024 financial results, highlighting a...

Baptista Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Trip.com Q424 Results | Higher Costs Finally Arrive, And With a Vengeance

Trip.com's Q424 results showed a re-acceleration of top-line growth, but also a surprising surge in Cost of Revenue and Operating Expenses, which...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | LNY Numbers Just OK | Airlines Filling Up | (February 2025)

January and Lunar New Year travel activity data seem OK, but not spectacular. Chinese tourists seem eager to travel, but there are few signs they...

Tracking Traffic

Booking Holdings Inc.: Can They Tackle The Risks Associated With Intensified Competition in the Global Market? - Major Drivers

Booking Holdings' third-quarter earnings for 2024 reflected a robust performance, with significant improvements in key financial metrics, driven...

Baptista Research

Tongcheng Travel (780 HK): Seems like a Cost Issue

​Tongcheng Travel faces cost pressure as adjusted net profit rises by 10.9% in 2Q24 despite strong revenue growth. Slowing growth and potential...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Booking Holdings: Their Strategy Of Expansion Into Alternative Accommodations Paying Off? - Major Drivers

Booking Holdings, a prominent player in the global online travel market, reported its second quarter 2024 financial results, highlighting a...

Baptista Research

Tongcheng Travel faces cost pressure as adjusted net profit rises by 10.9% in 2Q24 despite strong revenue growth. Slowing growth and potential...