Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Australia's ASIC releases the aggregated short position data four business days after the reporting day. Data in this insight is up to 25th May, published on the 29th May.</li>
<li>The largest industry net increase in the past week was A$486mn into "Diversified Banks"; the largest industry net decrease was A$239mn out of "Interactive Media". Net shorts increased A$0.8bn week-on-week.</li>
<li>Companies mentioned in this regular weekly report include: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pls-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7460:1" rel="noopener">PLS (PLS AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40416:1" rel="noopener">Newmont (NEM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suncorp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4218:1" rel="noopener">Suncorp (SUN AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/transurban-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:593:1" rel="noopener">Transurban (TCL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/capstone-copper-corp-6eb66be6-7a3f-4b9c-9c73-dbc2c4df321f" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44139:1" rel="noopener">Capstone Copper (CSC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lendlease-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11248:1" rel="noopener">Lendlease (LLC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/block-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35684:1" rel="noopener">Block (SQ2 AU)</a>.</li>
</ul>


Australia's ASIC releases the aggregated short position data four business days after the reporting day. Data in this insight is up to 25th May, published on the 29th May.
The largest industry net increase in the past week was A$486mn into "Diversified Banks"; the largest industry net decrease was A$239mn out of "Interactive Media". Net shorts increased A$0.8bn week-on-week.
Companies mentioned in this regular weekly report include: PLS (PLS AU), Newmont (NEM AU), Suncorp (SUN AU), Transurban (TCL AU), Capstone Copper (CSC AU), Lendlease (LLC AU), Block (SQ2 AU).


Aussie Shorts [25 May]: PLS, Newmont, Suncorp, Transurban, Capstone Copper, Lendlease, Block

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of May 22nd (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD44.0bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Suncorp, BHP, Computershare, Northern Star Resources, Wesfarmers.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of May 22nd (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD44.0bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Suncorp, BHP, Computershare, Northern Star Resources, Wesfarmers.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (May 22nd): Suncorp, BHP, Computershare, Northern Star Resources

Materials Analyst/Strategist, Janus Analysis

Gaius King

Materials Analyst/Strategist

Accelerating Tomorrow’s Independent Research

Boost Research

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Quantifying nuclear statistics with substantial discrepancies</li>
<li>LT contracts &amp; speculative hoarding driving recent 40% spot price increase</li>
<li>Primary/secondary Uranium supplies currently 112% of 2017 demand</li>
<li>Uranium supply deficits extremely unlikely before 2022</li>
<li>Global Uranium demand to fall 25-40% by 2050</li>
<li> Primary Uranium sector LT SELL</li>
</ul>
We have independently audited global nuclear construction statistics in order to determine future Uranium demand.  Although near-term statistics match those in the public domain, long-term demand determined via construction pipeline illustrates substantial discrepancies.  Compiling planned plant construction, operational extensions, nameplate upgrades, versus decommissioning announcements/events, and in many cases, public policy inertia; has led us to believe that despite historical primary supply shortages, global nuclear demand peaked in 2006.
Since plateauing and despite strong Chinese growth, nuclear power generation has fallen &lt;2% over the past two decades, a decline that is predicted to accelerate as a number of developed and developing nations pursue other energy options.
The macro-trend not replacing existing nuclear infrastructure means (dependent on assumptions), according to our calculations, global uranium demand will decrease between 20 to 40% by 2050.
As opposed to signifying a fundamental change in underlying demand, we believe that recent Uranium price increases are the result of producers closing primary operations, and substituting production with purchases on the spot market to meet long-term contract obligations.  In addition, hedge funds are buying physical uranium in order to realise profits on potential future commodity price increases.  Critically, we determine that primary and secondary supplies are more than sufficient to meet forecast demand over the next four to five years; before taking into account substantial existing global uranium stocks, some of which are able to re-enter the spot market at short notice.


Quantifying nuclear statistics with substantial discrepancies
LT contracts &amp; speculative hoarding driving recent 40% spot price increase
Primary/secondary Uranium supplies currently 112% of 2017 demand
Uranium supply deficits extremely unlikely before 2022
Global Uranium demand to fall 25-40% by 2050
 Primary Uranium sector LT SELL

We have independently audited global nuclear construction statistics in order to determine future Uranium demand.  Although near-term statistics match those in the public domain, long-term demand determined via construction pipeline illustrates substantial discrepancies.  Compiling planned plant construction, operational extensions, nameplate upgrades, versus decommissioning announcements/events, and in many cases, public policy inertia; has led us to believe that despite historical primary supply shortages, global nuclear demand peaked in 2006.
Since plateauing and despite strong Chinese growth, nuclear power generation has fallen &lt;2% over the past two decades, a decline that is predicted to accelerate as a number of developed and developing nations pursue other energy options.
The macro-trend not replacing existing nuclear infrastructure means (dependent on assumptions), according to our calculations, global uranium demand will decrease between 20 to 40% by 2050.
As opposed to signifying a fundamental change in underlying demand, we believe that recent Uranium price increases are the result of producers closing primary operations, and substituting production with purchases on the spot market to meet long-term contract obligations.  In addition, hedge funds are buying physical uranium in order to realise profits on potential future commodity price increases.  Critically, we determine that primary and secondary supplies are more than sufficient to meet forecast demand over the next four to five years; before taking into account substantial existing global uranium stocks, some of which are able to re-enter the spot market at short notice.

Uranium - About to Enter Its Own Nuclear Winter

<ul>
<li>Australia's ASIC releases the aggregated short position data four business days after the reporting day. Data in this insight is up to 18th May, published on the 22nd May.</li>
<li>The largest industry net increase in the past week was just A$49mn into "Industrial REITs"; the largest net decrease was A$531mn out of "Diversified Banks". Net shorts fell A$1.6bn week-on-week.</li>
<li>Companies mentioned in this regular weekly report include: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/insurance-australia-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:712:1" rel="noopener">Insurance Australia (IAG AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/4dmedical-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30789:1" rel="noopener">4DMedical (4DX AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/the-lottery-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35970:1" rel="noopener">The Lottery Corporation (TLC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/national-australia-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15:1" rel="noopener">NAB (NAB AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anz-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40898:1" rel="noopener">ANZ  (ANZ AU)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/westpac-banking-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:444:1" rel="noopener">Westpac (WBC AU)</a>.</li>
</ul>


Australia's ASIC releases the aggregated short position data four business days after the reporting day. Data in this insight is up to 18th May, published on the 22nd May.
The largest industry net increase in the past week was just A$49mn into "Industrial REITs"; the largest net decrease was A$531mn out of "Diversified Banks". Net shorts fell A$1.6bn week-on-week.
Companies mentioned in this regular weekly report include: Insurance Australia (IAG AU), 4DMedical (4DX AU), The Lottery Corporation (TLC AU), NAB (NAB AU), ANZ  (ANZ AU), and Westpac (WBC AU).


Aussie Shorts [18th May]: Insurance Australia, 4DMedical, The Lottery Corp., NAB, ANZ, and Westpac

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of May 15th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD44.8bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Insurance Australia, Rio Tinto, 4Dmedical, Goodman, Lottery.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of May 15th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD44.8bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Insurance Australia, Rio Tinto, 4Dmedical, Goodman, Lottery.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (May 15th): Insurance Australia, Rio Tinto, 4Dmedical, Goodman, Lottery

Australia

Boss Resources Limited operates as a mineral exploration company. The Company explores and develops uranium and base metal projects. Boss Resources serves customers in Namibia.

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Boss Energy (BOE AU)

Aussie Shorts [25 May]: PLS, Newmont, Suncorp, Transurban, Capstone Copper, Lendlease, Block

Companies mentioned in this regular weekly report include: PLS (PLS AU), Newmont (NEM AU), Suncorp (SUN AU), Transurban (TCL AU), Capstone Copper...

David Blennerhassett

ASX Short Interest Weekly (May 22nd): Suncorp, BHP, Computershare, Northern Star Resources

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Suncorp, BHP, Computershare, Northern Star...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Uranium - About to Enter Its Own Nuclear Winter

Quantifying nuclear statistics with substantial discrepancies LT contracts & speculative hoarding driving recent 40% spot...

Boost Research

Aussie Shorts [18th May]: Insurance Australia, 4DMedical, The Lottery Corp., NAB, ANZ, and Westpac

Net shorts fell A$1.6bn week-on-week. Companies mentioned in this regular weekly report include: Insurance Australia, 4DMedical, The Lottery...

David Blennerhassett

ASX Short Interest Weekly (May 15th): Insurance Australia, Rio Tinto, 4Dmedical, Goodman, Lottery

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Insurance Australia, Rio Tinto, 4Dmedical, Goodman,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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