EM PM, Ecstrat

Emad Mostaque

EM PM

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
​
More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The events that have occurred in Paris, Baghdad and Beirut over the last few days confirm the rising geopolitical risk we are facing across the world, with these being declared as the first of the coming storm. An Arab Winter is coming and the inability of the world to band together to defeat a relatively small force in Raqqa bodes ill for our ability to handle it. This piece looks at some key questions over Daesh  -- the Arabic acronym for Islamic State -- and how we deal with them. Daesh can…

 The events that have occurred in Paris, Baghdad and Beirut over the last few days confirm the rising geopolitical risk we are facing across the world, with these being declared as the first of the coming storm. An Arab Winter is coming and the inability of the world to band together to defeat a relatively small force in Raqqa bodes ill for our ability to handle it. This piece looks at some key questions over Daesh  -- the Arabic acronym for Islamic State -- and how we deal with them. Daesh can…

Director, Head of Research, Smartkarma

Pranav Rao

Director, Head of Research

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Welcome to Curator’s Cut - a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,300+ insights published on Smartkarma.</li>
<li>In this cut, we review the outlook for energy markets amid the Persian Gulf conflict, highlight coverage of gold miners large and small, and identify opportunities in Japanese financials.</li>
<li>Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next.</li>
</ul>


Welcome to Curator’s Cut - a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,300+ insights published on Smartkarma.
In this cut, we review the outlook for energy markets amid the Persian Gulf conflict, highlight coverage of gold miners large and small, and identify opportunities in Japanese financials.
Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next.


Curator's Cut: Crude Reality, Reshuffling Gold Miners & Banking on Japanese Fintech

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Equity Bottom-Up

Oil & Natural Gas Corporation / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>ONGC drilled 578 wells in FY25, a 35-year high, while exploration CapEx surged 25% YoY to INR 10,300 crore, within a record total CapEx of INR 62,000 crore. 
</li>
<li>This shift from "maintenance mode" to "frontier exploration" aims to arrest decade-long production declines.</li>
<li>While production stabilization is visible, the high exploration write-off risk and execution delays in deep-water assets remain the primary overhangs.</li>
</ul>


ONGC drilled 578 wells in FY25, a 35-year high, while exploration CapEx surged 25% YoY to INR 10,300 crore, within a record total CapEx of INR 62,000 crore. 

This shift from "maintenance mode" to "frontier exploration" aims to arrest decade-long production declines.
While production stabilization is visible, the high exploration write-off risk and execution delays in deep-water assets remain the primary overhangs.


ONGC's Highest Ever CapEx & Multi-Billion Dollar Deep-Water Pivot

Focused on the Climate–Nature Nexus., Carbon Tracker Initiative

Carbon Tracker Initiative

Focused on the Climate–Nature Nexus.

Carbon Tracker and Planet Tracker - part of the Tracker Group - are award-winning, non-profit financial think tanks focused on the climate–nature nexus.

<ul><li>What Lies Beneath delivers a clear warning investors cannot afford to overlook: asset retirement obligations (AROs) represent a financially material, fast‑evolving risk for oil and gas companies—and current disclosures fall far short of what is needed to judge that exposure.</li><li>This research provides a rigorous, data‑driven assessment showing that, across 38 companies in Australia, Canada, and the UK, transparency around AROs is deeply inadequate—despite the obligations often reaching levels comparable to, or even exceeding, shareholders’ equity.</li><li>The report reveals that most companies provide only fragmentary insight into the estimated costs, timing, discount rates, and inflation assumptions underpinning their ARO liabilities, leaving investors unable to assess liquidity impacts or the risk of abrupt increases in decommissioning costs as the energy transition accelerates.</li></ul>

What Lies Beneath delivers a clear warning investors cannot afford to overlook: asset retirement obligations (AROs) represent a financially material, fast‑evolving risk for oil and gas companies—and current disclosures fall far short of what is needed to judge that exposure.This research provides a rigorous, data‑driven assessment showing that, across 38 companies in Australia, Canada, and the UK, transparency around AROs is deeply inadequate—despite the obligations often reaching levels comparable to, or even exceeding, shareholders’ equity.The report reveals that most companies provide only fragmentary insight into the estimated costs, timing, discount rates, and inflation assumptions underpinning their ARO liabilities, leaving investors unable to assess liquidity impacts or the risk of abrupt increases in decommissioning costs as the energy transition accelerates.

Energy Transition: Asset Retirement Obligations: What Lies Beneath?

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Dimitris Ioannidis

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siemens-energy-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35843:1" rel="noopener">Siemens Energy AG (ENR GR)</a> was omitted from STOXX Europe50 as it had been failing the coverage threshold in the Energy sector.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siemens-energy-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35843:1" rel="noopener">Siemens Energy AG (ENR GR)</a> surged ~20% over the last month and is now passing the threshold, making it the top addition candidate replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/diageo-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:977:1" rel="noopener">Diageo Plc (DGE LN)</a>.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/barclays-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1121:1" rel="noopener">Barclays PLC (BARC LN)</a> is the second addition candidate currently replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/london-stock-exchange-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22034:1" rel="noopener">London Stock Exchange (LSEG LN)</a> as they are near the entry and exit ranks, respectively.</li>
</ul>



Siemens Energy AG (ENR GR) was omitted from STOXX Europe50 as it had been failing the coverage threshold in the Energy sector.

Siemens Energy AG (ENR GR) surged ~20% over the last month and is now passing the threshold, making it the top addition candidate replacing Diageo Plc (DGE LN).

Barclays PLC (BARC LN) is the second addition candidate currently replacing London Stock Exchange (LSEG LN) as they are near the entry and exit ranks, respectively.


Siemens Energy AG (ENR GR): STOXX Europe50 Qualification from Energy Sector

United Kingdom

BP p.l.c. is a British multinational integrated energy company. It engages in oil and gas exploration, production, refining, distribution, and marketing, as well as renewable energy activities including solar, wind, and hydrogen businesses. The company was founded in 1908 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.

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BP (BP US)

Deconstructing Daesh

The events that have occurred in Paris, Baghdad and Beirut over the last few days confirm the rising geopolitical risk we are facing across the...

Emad Mostaque

Curator's Cut: Crude Reality, Reshuffling Gold Miners & Banking on Japanese Fintech

This Curator's Cut highlights energy market outlook, gold miners coverage, and opportunities in Japanese financials from Smartkarma insights....

Pranav Rao

ONGC's Highest Ever CapEx & Multi-Billion Dollar Deep-Water Pivot

ONGC's record high drilling and exploration CapEx in FY25 signals a shift towards frontier exploration to combat production declines, but risks of...

Nimish Maheshwari

Energy Transition: Asset Retirement Obligations: What Lies Beneath?

What Lies Beneath delivers a clear warning investors cannot afford to overlook: asset retirement obligations (AROs) represent a financially...

Carbon Tracker Initiative

Siemens Energy AG (ENR GR): STOXX Europe50 Qualification from Energy Sector

Siemens Energy (ENR GR) is set to be added to STOXX Europe50 in September 2026 after passing the Energy sector coverage threshold, potentially...

Dimitris Ioannidis

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Deconstructing Daesh

The events that have occurred in Paris, Baghdad and Beirut over the last few days confirm the rising geopolitical risk we are facing across the...

Emad Mostaque

Curator's Cut: Crude Reality, Reshuffling Gold Miners & Banking on Japanese Fintech

​This Curator's Cut highlights energy market outlook, gold miners coverage, and opportunities in Japanese financials from Smartkarma insights....

Pranav Rao

ONGC's Highest Ever CapEx & Multi-Billion Dollar Deep-Water Pivot

​ONGC's record high drilling and exploration CapEx in FY25 signals a shift towards frontier exploration to combat production declines, but risks of...

Nimish Maheshwari

Energy Transition: Asset Retirement Obligations: What Lies Beneath?

What Lies Beneath delivers a clear warning investors cannot afford to overlook: asset retirement obligations (AROs) represent a financially...

Carbon Tracker Initiative

Siemens Energy AG (ENR GR): STOXX Europe50 Qualification from Energy Sector

​Siemens Energy (ENR GR) is set to be added to STOXX Europe50 in September 2026 after passing the Energy sector coverage threshold, potentially...

Dimitris Ioannidis

This Curator's Cut highlights energy market outlook, gold miners coverage, and opportunities in Japanese financials from Smartkarma insights....

ONGC's record high drilling and exploration CapEx in FY25 signals a shift towards frontier exploration to combat production declines, but risks of...

Siemens Energy (ENR GR) is set to be added to STOXX Europe50 in September 2026 after passing the Energy sector coverage threshold, potentially...