Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>BP set to report its Q1 2025 earnings on 29/Apr, with revenue and EPS projected to fall by 7.4% YoY and 43.3%, respectively.</li>
<li>As of 29/Apr, BP’s implied volatility (IV) stands at 34.62%, with an IV rank of 41.83% and an IV percentile of 91%.</li>
<li>BP's OI by strike for the 02/May expiry shows calls concentrated at strikes 30, 31, and 34, while puts dominate at 26.5, 27, and 28.</li>
</ul>


BP set to report its Q1 2025 earnings on 29/Apr, with revenue and EPS projected to fall by 7.4% YoY and 43.3%, respectively.
As of 29/Apr, BP’s implied volatility (IV) stands at 34.62%, with an IV rank of 41.83% and an IV percentile of 91%.
BP's OI by strike for the 02/May expiry shows calls concentrated at strikes 30, 31, and 34, while puts dominate at 26.5, 27, and 28.


[Pre-Earnings Options Flash] BP’s OI PCR Signals Neutrality Despite Bleak Q4 Outlook

<ul>
<li>BP’s Q4 revenue and EPS are projected to decline by 7.4% YoY and 43.3%, respectively, due to lower hydrocarbon output, weaker gas marketing, and subdued trading results.</li>
<li>BP expects oil production earnings to remain flat sequentially, with refining margins adding USD 100-300 million to Q1 earnings, while oil trading performance is anticipated to remain unchanged.</li>
<li>The company expects net debt to increase by USD 4 billion from the previous quarter’s USD 23 billion, citing seasonal inventory builds and timing of payments.</li>
</ul>


BP’s Q4 revenue and EPS are projected to decline by 7.4% YoY and 43.3%, respectively, due to lower hydrocarbon output, weaker gas marketing, and subdued trading results.
BP expects oil production earnings to remain flat sequentially, with refining margins adding USD 100-300 million to Q1 earnings, while oil trading performance is anticipated to remain unchanged.
The company expects net debt to increase by USD 4 billion from the previous quarter’s USD 23 billion, citing seasonal inventory builds and timing of payments.


[Earnings Preview] BP’s Outlook Dims with Lower Hydrocarbon Output and Softer Trading Results

<ul>
<li>Shell reaffirmed its strategy, prioritizing efficiency, LNG growth, and shareholder returns, unlike BP’s strategic shift back to hydrocarbons after an aggressive renewables push.</li>
<li>As the world’s largest LNG trader, Shell plans 4%-5% annual LNG sales growth, capitalizing on rising global demand while maintaining financial discipline and emissions targets</li>
<li>Shell aims to save USD 5 - 7 billion by 2028, cut capex to USD 20 - 22 billion, and streamline operations to enhance free cash flow and investor returns.</li>
</ul>


Shell reaffirmed its strategy, prioritizing efficiency, LNG growth, and shareholder returns, unlike BP’s strategic shift back to hydrocarbons after an aggressive renewables push.
As the world’s largest LNG trader, Shell plans 4%-5% annual LNG sales growth, capitalizing on rising global demand while maintaining financial discipline and emissions targets
Shell aims to save USD 5 - 7 billion by 2028, cut capex to USD 20 - 22 billion, and streamline operations to enhance free cash flow and investor returns.


Shell’s Next Phase: Leaner Operations, Stronger Cash Flow, and Higher Shareholder Returns

<ul>
<li>BP will increase oil and gas spending to USD 10 billion annually through 2027, comprising 66%-70% of total capex, while slashing renewable energy investments by over USD 5 billion. </li>
<li>BP reduced its quarterly buybacks to USD 0.75–1 billion from USD 1.75 billion and lowered annual capex to USD 13–15 billion through 2027.  </li>
<li>Elliott Investment Management is reportedly dissatisfied with BP’s strategy reset, criticizing it for lacking urgency and ambition, potentially prompting further strategic adjustments from the company. </li>
</ul>


BP will increase oil and gas spending to USD 10 billion annually through 2027, comprising 66%-70% of total capex, while slashing renewable energy investments by over USD 5 billion. 
BP reduced its quarterly buybacks to USD 0.75–1 billion from USD 1.75 billion and lowered annual capex to USD 13–15 billion through 2027.  
Elliott Investment Management is reportedly dissatisfied with BP’s strategy reset, criticizing it for lacking urgency and ambition, potentially prompting further strategic adjustments from the company. 


BP’s Strategy Reset Stumbles as Dividend Cut, Oil & Gas Output Target Disappoints

<ul>
<li>BP’s Q4 revenue declined 12.3% YoY, missing estimates by 2.6%, while EPS fell 58.9% YoY and missed estimates by 3.4%. Underlying net profit dropped 60.9% YoY to USD 1.17 billion.</li>
<li>Elliott acquired a 5% stake in BP, becoming its third-largest shareholder. The activist fund is likely to push for a stronger focus on fossil fuels and a pullback on renewables.</li>
<li>BP's Q4 cash flow dropped 20.8% YoY to USD 7.4 billion, while net debt climbed 10% to USD 23 billion. Despite this, it announced a USD 1.75 billion share buyback.</li>
</ul>


BP’s Q4 revenue declined 12.3% YoY, missing estimates by 2.6%, while EPS fell 58.9% YoY and missed estimates by 3.4%. Underlying net profit dropped 60.9% YoY to USD 1.17 billion.
Elliott acquired a 5% stake in BP, becoming its third-largest shareholder. The activist fund is likely to push for a stronger focus on fossil fuels and a pullback on renewables.
BP's Q4 cash flow dropped 20.8% YoY to USD 7.4 billion, while net debt climbed 10% to USD 23 billion. Despite this, it announced a USD 1.75 billion share buyback.


[Earnings Review] BP Reports Weakest Profit Since 2020, but Elliott’s Stake Sparks a Rally

United Kingdom

BP p.l.c. is a British multinational integrated energy company. It engages in oil and gas exploration, production, refining, distribution, and marketing, as well as renewable energy activities including solar, wind, and hydrogen businesses. The company was founded in 1908 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.

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BP (BP US)

[Pre-Earnings Options Flash] BP’s OI PCR Signals Neutrality Despite Bleak Q4 Outlook

BP is set to report Q1 earnings with projected revenue and EPS declines, while options data shows calls concentrated at higher strikes and puts at...

Mint Finance

[Earnings Preview] BP’s Outlook Dims with Lower Hydrocarbon Output and Softer Trading Results

BP's Q4 revenue and EPS to decline due to lower output and weaker trading results, with flat oil production earnings and increased net debt...

Mint Finance

Shell’s Next Phase: Leaner Operations, Stronger Cash Flow, and Higher Shareholder Returns

Shell focuses on efficiency, LNG growth, and shareholder returns, contrasting with BP's return to hydrocarbons; plans to save billions, cut capex,...

Mint Finance

BP’s Strategy Reset Stumbles as Dividend Cut, Oil & Gas Output Target Disappoints

BP plans to increase oil and gas spending while cutting back on renewable energy investments. Elliott Investment Management criticizes this...

Mint Finance

[Earnings Review] BP Reports Weakest Profit Since 2020, but Elliott’s Stake Sparks a Rally

BP's revenue and EPS decline, Elliott acquires stake in BP, pushing for focus on fossil fuels, cash flow drops but announces share buyback.

Mint Finance

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Pre-Earnings Options Flash] BP’s OI PCR Signals Neutrality Despite Bleak Q4 Outlook

​BP is set to report Q1 earnings with projected revenue and EPS declines, while options data shows calls concentrated at higher strikes and puts at...

Mint Finance

[Earnings Preview] BP’s Outlook Dims with Lower Hydrocarbon Output and Softer Trading Results

​BP's Q4 revenue and EPS to decline due to lower output and weaker trading results, with flat oil production earnings and increased net debt...

Mint Finance

Shell’s Next Phase: Leaner Operations, Stronger Cash Flow, and Higher Shareholder Returns

​Shell focuses on efficiency, LNG growth, and shareholder returns, contrasting with BP's return to hydrocarbons; plans to save billions, cut capex,...

Mint Finance

BP’s Strategy Reset Stumbles as Dividend Cut, Oil & Gas Output Target Disappoints

​BP plans to increase oil and gas spending while cutting back on renewable energy investments. Elliott Investment Management criticizes this...

Mint Finance

[Earnings Review] BP Reports Weakest Profit Since 2020, but Elliott’s Stake Sparks a Rally

​BP's revenue and EPS decline, Elliott acquires stake in BP, pushing for focus on fossil fuels, cash flow drops but announces share buyback.

Mint Finance

BP is set to report Q1 earnings with projected revenue and EPS declines, while options data shows calls concentrated at higher strikes and puts at...

BP's Q4 revenue and EPS to decline due to lower output and weaker trading results, with flat oil production earnings and increased net debt...

Shell focuses on efficiency, LNG growth, and shareholder returns, contrasting with BP's return to hydrocarbons; plans to save billions, cut capex,...

BP plans to increase oil and gas spending while cutting back on renewable energy investments. Elliott Investment Management criticizes this...

BP's revenue and EPS decline, Elliott acquires stake in BP, pushing for focus on fossil fuels, cash flow drops but announces share buyback.