Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>BP’s Q2 2025 revenue is expected to drop 10% QoQ and 10.7% YoY. However, its EPS is projected to rise by 30.8% QoQ but fall by 32% YoY.</li>
<li>Lower oil and gas realizations are expected to drag earnings by up to USD 1.1 billion, but strong refining margins and oil trading performance could offset the blow.</li>
<li>Options positioning reflects mild bullish sentiment, with traders favouring calls near current levels, suggesting expectations of a modest post-earnings upside.</li>
</ul>


BP’s Q2 2025 revenue is expected to drop 10% QoQ and 10.7% YoY. However, its EPS is projected to rise by 30.8% QoQ but fall by 32% YoY.
Lower oil and gas realizations are expected to drag earnings by up to USD 1.1 billion, but strong refining margins and oil trading performance could offset the blow.
Options positioning reflects mild bullish sentiment, with traders favouring calls near current levels, suggesting expectations of a modest post-earnings upside.


[Earnings Preview] BP Set for Mixed Q2 as Strong Refining and Trading Offset Price Pressures

Global Editor, Base Oil News

Iain Pocock

Global Editor

Global Base Oils and Lubricants Markets

Base Oil News

Base Oil News focuses on the interplay between fundamentals and prices in the global base oils and lubricants markets.

Baseoilnews.com combines daily, weekly and monthly base oils and lubes fundamentals data from every region of the world to build the most comprehensive and up-to-date global picture of the state of the market.

The data and analysis provide key tools to understand current market developments and opportunities and to anticipate how the market is likely to behave in the coming months.

Base oils producers, lube blenders and consumers can then better plan accordingly.

Baseoilnews.com analyses and publishes market news and data every day as it breaks.

Commodities

<ul><li>Asia’s base oils demand likely to stay cautious even with round of stock-replenishment in coming weeks.</li><li>Asia’s lube demand likely to rise over coming months after bottoming out in month of August.</li><li>Lower demand in August likely triggers pick-up in surplus supplies in Asia-Pacific region.</li></ul>

Asia’s base oils demand likely to stay cautious even with round of stock-replenishment in coming weeks.Asia’s lube demand likely to rise over coming months after bottoming out in month of August.Lower demand in August likely triggers pick-up in surplus supplies in Asia-Pacific region.

Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 25 August

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>In May 2025, the energy sector is abuzz with speculation that Shell is evaluating a potential acquisition of BP.</li><li>This comes amid a backdrop of declining oil prices, which have recently hit a four-year low due to increased OPEC+ production and global demand uncertainties.</li><li>Shell, with a market capitalization of approximately £149 billion, is nearly twice the size of BP, whose shares have fallen nearly 30% over the past year, reflecting investor concerns over its strategic direction and financial health.</li></ul>

In May 2025, the energy sector is abuzz with speculation that Shell is evaluating a potential acquisition of BP.This comes amid a backdrop of declining oil prices, which have recently hit a four-year low due to increased OPEC+ production and global demand uncertainties.Shell, with a market capitalization of approximately £149 billion, is nearly twice the size of BP, whose shares have fallen nearly 30% over the past year, reflecting investor concerns over its strategic direction and financial health.

Mega Merger in the Making? What a Shell–BP Deal Could Mean for Global Energy

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Shell–BP deal offers strong industrial logic, with $70B in synergies justifying a 40–50% premium while delivering robust EPS accretion and strategic energy transition alignment.</li>
<li>Regulatory hurdles are real but manageable, with anticipated divestitures in UK/EU fuel retail and limited structural issues in the U.S.</li>
<li>Multiple financing structures are viable; a 60/40 cash-stock mix preserves leverage discipline, limits dilution, and enhances deal feasibility from a risk-arb perspective.</li>
</ul>


Shell–BP deal offers strong industrial logic, with $70B in synergies justifying a 40–50% premium while delivering robust EPS accretion and strategic energy transition alignment.
Regulatory hurdles are real but manageable, with anticipated divestitures in UK/EU fuel retail and limited structural issues in the U.S.
Multiple financing structures are viable; a 60/40 cash-stock mix preserves leverage discipline, limits dilution, and enhances deal feasibility from a risk-arb perspective.


Crude Awakening: Shell’s Possible Bid to Refine BP’s Future

<ul>
<li>BP set to report its Q1 2025 earnings on 29/Apr, with revenue and EPS projected to fall by 7.4% YoY and 43.3%, respectively.</li>
<li>As of 29/Apr, BP’s implied volatility (IV) stands at 34.62%, with an IV rank of 41.83% and an IV percentile of 91%.</li>
<li>BP's OI by strike for the 02/May expiry shows calls concentrated at strikes 30, 31, and 34, while puts dominate at 26.5, 27, and 28.</li>
</ul>


BP set to report its Q1 2025 earnings on 29/Apr, with revenue and EPS projected to fall by 7.4% YoY and 43.3%, respectively.
As of 29/Apr, BP’s implied volatility (IV) stands at 34.62%, with an IV rank of 41.83% and an IV percentile of 91%.
BP's OI by strike for the 02/May expiry shows calls concentrated at strikes 30, 31, and 34, while puts dominate at 26.5, 27, and 28.


[Pre-Earnings Options Flash] BP’s OI PCR Signals Neutrality Despite Bleak Q4 Outlook

United Kingdom

BP plc is an oil and petrochemicals company.  The Company explores for and produces oil and natural gas, refines, markets, and supplies petroleum products, generates solar energy, and manufactures and markets chemicals.  BP's chemicals include terephthalic acid, acetic acid, acrylonitrile, ethylene and polyethylene.

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BP PLC (BP/ LN)

[Earnings Preview] BP Set for Mixed Q2 as Strong Refining and Trading Offset Price Pressures

BP's Q2 revenue expected to drop, but EPS to rise due to strong refining margins and oil trading performance. Traders show mild bullish sentiment...

Mint Finance

Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 25 August

Asia’s base oils demand likely to stay cautious even with round of stock-replenishment in coming weeks. Asia’s lube demand likely to rise over...

Base Oil News

Mega Merger in the Making? What a Shell–BP Deal Could Mean for Global Energy

In May 2025, the energy sector is abuzz with speculation that Shell is evaluating a potential acquisition of BP. This comes amid a backdrop of...

Baptista Research

Crude Awakening: Shell’s Possible Bid to Refine BP’s Future

Shell’s potential bid for BP could ignite Europe’s biggest energy merger in decades—driven by $70B in synergies, strategic alignment, and a deal...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

[Pre-Earnings Options Flash] BP’s OI PCR Signals Neutrality Despite Bleak Q4 Outlook

BP is set to report Q1 earnings with projected revenue and EPS declines, while options data shows calls concentrated at higher strikes and puts at...

Mint Finance

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Earnings Preview] BP Set for Mixed Q2 as Strong Refining and Trading Offset Price Pressures

​BP's Q2 revenue expected to drop, but EPS to rise due to strong refining margins and oil trading performance. Traders show mild bullish sentiment...

Mint Finance

Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 25 August

Asia’s base oils demand likely to stay cautious even with round of stock-replenishment in coming weeks. Asia’s lube demand likely to rise over...

Base Oil News

Mega Merger in the Making? What a Shell–BP Deal Could Mean for Global Energy

In May 2025, the energy sector is abuzz with speculation that Shell is evaluating a potential acquisition of BP. This comes amid a backdrop of...

Baptista Research

Crude Awakening: Shell’s Possible Bid to Refine BP’s Future

Shell’s potential bid for BP could ignite Europe’s biggest energy merger in decades—driven by $70B in synergies, strategic alignment, and a deal...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

[Pre-Earnings Options Flash] BP’s OI PCR Signals Neutrality Despite Bleak Q4 Outlook

​BP is set to report Q1 earnings with projected revenue and EPS declines, while options data shows calls concentrated at higher strikes and puts at...

Mint Finance

BP's Q2 revenue expected to drop, but EPS to rise due to strong refining margins and oil trading performance. Traders show mild bullish sentiment...

BP is set to report Q1 earnings with projected revenue and EPS declines, while options data shows calls concentrated at higher strikes and puts at...