Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14503:1" rel="noopener">Newmont Mining (NEM US)</a> has made an indicative, non-binding and conditional proposal to acquire <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newcrest-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:691:1" rel="noopener">Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)</a>. The exchange ratio is 0.38 Newmont shares for each Newcrest share.</li>
<li>At <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14503:1" rel="noopener">Newmont Mining (NEM US)</a>'s last close, this values <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newcrest-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:691:1" rel="noopener">Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)</a> at A$27.4/share and at an equity value of A$17.3bn, a 22% premium to the last close.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14503:1" rel="noopener">Newmont Mining (NEM US)</a> intends to list CDIs on the ASX following the acquisition and that will have implications for changes in the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices.</li>
</ul>



Newmont Mining (NEM US) has made an indicative, non-binding and conditional proposal to acquire Newcrest Mining (NCM AU). The exchange ratio is 0.38 Newmont shares for each Newcrest share.
At Newmont Mining (NEM US)'s last close, this values Newcrest Mining (NCM AU) at A$27.4/share and at an equity value of A$17.3bn, a 22% premium to the last close.

Newmont Mining (NEM US) intends to list CDIs on the ASX following the acquisition and that will have implications for changes in the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices.


Newmont's Indicative Offer for Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Jan 6th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD16.0bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Anz, Bhp, Yancoal Australia, Brambles.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Jan 6th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD16.0bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Anz, Bhp, Yancoal Australia, Brambles.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jan 6th): ANZ, Bhp, Yancoal Australi, Brambles

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The downside to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/woodside-petroleum-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:177:1" rel="noopener">Woodside Petroleum (WPL AU)</a> remains, but the reasoned downside is smaller than it was before.</li>
<li>CVC walks, but it doesn't stop <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/brambles-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:693:1" rel="noopener">Brambles Ltd (BXB AU)</a> privatisation speculation. </li>
<li>If <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tabcorp-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6837:1" rel="noopener">Tabcorp</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/the-lottery-corporation-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35970:1" rel="noopener">The Lottery Corp</a> are seen as low volatility growth properties, then the stability of cashflow puts it into rarified air among "growth bias" which has gotten trashed. </li>
</ul>


The downside to Woodside Petroleum (WPL AU) remains, but the reasoned downside is smaller than it was before.
CVC walks, but it doesn't stop Brambles Ltd (BXB AU) privatisation speculation. 
If Tabcorp and The Lottery Corp are seen as low volatility growth properties, then the stability of cashflow puts it into rarified air among "growth bias" which has gotten trashed. 


Last Week In Event SPACE: Woodside Petroleum, Brambles, Tabcorp, HKBN, Japan

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/brambles-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:693:1" rel="noopener">Brambles Ltd (BXB AU)</a> responded to press speculation by stating it had preliminary discussions with CVC Capital on a privatisation proposal. The shares rose 11.2% to close at A$11.60.</li>
<li>The AFR’s rumour of “a bid valuing Brambles at more than $20 billion, including debt” would imply an offer price around A$11.50, a 10% premium to the undisturbed price.</li>
<li>As the Australian takeover premium ranges from 20% to 40%, we think that a bid of around A$13 per share (25% takeover premium) will be necessary for due diligence access.</li>
</ul>



Brambles Ltd (BXB AU) responded to press speculation by stating it had preliminary discussions with CVC Capital on a privatisation proposal. The shares rose 11.2% to close at A$11.60.
The AFR’s rumour of “a bid valuing Brambles at more than $20 billion, including debt” would imply an offer price around A$11.50, a 10% premium to the undisturbed price.
As the Australian takeover premium ranges from 20% to 40%, we think that a bid of around A$13 per share (25% takeover premium) will be necessary for due diligence access.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/brambles-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:693:1" rel="noopener">Brambles Ltd (BXB AU)</a> has confirmed that it has had a preliminary engagement with Luxembourg-based CVC in regard to an unsolicited proposal to acquire all of its shares. </li>
<li>No formal proposal has yet been received. No price was made public although various media reports indicate a A$20bn bid, which may or may not hinge off an EV figure.</li>
<li>In is 3Q22 trading update, Brambles upgraded its FY22 revenue and earnings guidance, despite ongoing cost inflation and pallet shortages.</li>
</ul>



Brambles Ltd (BXB AU) has confirmed that it has had a preliminary engagement with Luxembourg-based CVC in regard to an unsolicited proposal to acquire all of its shares. 
No formal proposal has yet been received. No price was made public although various media reports indicate a A$20bn bid, which may or may not hinge off an EV figure.
In is 3Q22 trading update, Brambles upgraded its FY22 revenue and earnings guidance, despite ongoing cost inflation and pallet shortages.


Australia

Brambles Limited is a global support services group which provides pallet and plastic container pooling services and information management services.

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Brambles Ltd (BXB AU)

Newmont's Indicative Offer for Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)

Newmont is looking to acquire Newcrest Mining at an exchange ratio of 0.38 NEM shares per NCM share. That is a 22% premium for NCM. NEM intends to...

Brian Freitas

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jan 6th): ANZ, Bhp, Yancoal Australi, Brambles

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Anz, Bhp, Yancoal Australi, Brambles.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Last Week In Event SPACE: Woodside Petroleum, Brambles, Tabcorp, HKBN, Japan

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

CVC to Lob an Offer for Brambles?

Shares closed 11.2% higher at A$11.60. As the Australian takeover premium ranges from 20% to 40%, a bid of around A$13 per share (25% takeover...

Arun George

CVC Sizes Up Brambles (BXB AU)

There is as yet, no firm Offer. And no firm price. This is not an insignificant outlay, should one unfold. I'd be disinclined to chase it here,...

David Blennerhassett

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