Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Guotai Junan International / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Yesterday morning (23rd July), broker/investment bank <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guotai-junan-international-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13438:1" rel="noopener">Guotai Junan International (1788 HK)</a>  (GJI) was suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code. </li>
<li>GJI is 73.92%-controlled by the recently formed state-backed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guotai-junan-securities-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22740:1" rel="noopener">Guotai Haitong Securities (601211 CH)</a> (GHS) - see <a href="https://skr.ma/aWiHx" target="_blank" rel="noopener">GJS/Haitong Merger: One Formality Reg To Go</a>. </li>
<li>GHS will be taking out GJI. The key question is at what price? </li>
</ul>


Yesterday morning (23rd July), broker/investment bank Guotai Junan International (1788 HK)  (GJI) was suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code. 
GJI is 73.92%-controlled by the recently formed state-backed Guotai Haitong Securities (601211 CH) (GHS) - see GJS/Haitong Merger: One Formality Reg To Go. 
GHS will be taking out GJI. The key question is at what price? 


Musings On Guotai Haitong (601211 CH)'s Expected Offer For Guotai Junan (1788 HK)

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guotai-junan-international-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13438:1" rel="noopener">Guotai Junan International (1788 HK)</a>/GJTAI is in a trading halt “pending the issuance of an announcement pursuant to the Code on Takeovers and Mergers.” </li>
<li>It is likely that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guotai-haitong-securities-co-ltd-class-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23752:1" rel="noopener">Guotai Haitong Securities (2611 HK)</a> is seeking to privatise GJTAI. The timing would be opportunistic, as GJTAI has underperformed its peers over the last 12 months.</li>
<li>I use three methods to triangulate the likely offer price. My methods suggest a price range of HK$2.80 to HK$3.50 per share, a 34.6%-68.3% premium to the last close.</li>
</ul>



Guotai Junan International (1788 HK)/GJTAI is in a trading halt “pending the issuance of an announcement pursuant to the Code on Takeovers and Mergers.” 
It is likely that Guotai Haitong Securities (2611 HK) is seeking to privatise GJTAI. The timing would be opportunistic, as GJTAI has underperformed its peers over the last 12 months.
I use three methods to triangulate the likely offer price. My methods suggest a price range of HK$2.80 to HK$3.50 per share, a 34.6%-68.3% premium to the last close.


Guotai Junan International (1788 HK): Privatisation by Guotai Haitong Securities?

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/get-nice-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16415:1" rel="noopener">Get Nice (64 HK)</a>/GNH has disclosed a scheme offer from Mr Hung Hon Man (founder and Chairman) at HK$4.00 (scheme consideration of HK$2.00 + special dividend of HK$2.00).</li>
<li>While the offer represents a five-year high, it is light, implying a P/B multiple at a discount to precedent transactions and peer multiples. </li>
<li>However, the scheme vote is low-risk, as no disinterested shareholder holds a blocking stake. Unless an activist(s) takes an interest by building a blocking stake, this is a done deal.</li>
</ul>



Get Nice (64 HK)/GNH has disclosed a scheme offer from Mr Hung Hon Man (founder and Chairman) at HK$4.00 (scheme consideration of HK$2.00 + special dividend of HK$2.00).
While the offer represents a five-year high, it is light, implying a P/B multiple at a discount to precedent transactions and peer multiples. 
However, the scheme vote is low-risk, as no disinterested shareholder holds a blocking stake. Unless an activist(s) takes an interest by building a blocking stake, this is a done deal.


Get Nice Holdings (64 HK): Chairman’s Scheme Offer Is Light

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/get-nice-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16415:1" rel="noopener">Get Nice (64 HK)</a>/GNH is in a trading halt “pending the release of an announcement in relation to the Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers.”</li>
<li>Mr Hung (Chairman) is likely to reload his 2020 offer. The key difference is that he will seek to privatise GNH at this time.</li>
<li>I use several methods to triangulate the likely offer price, which suggests an offer of HK$4.74 to HK$7.09 per share, representing a 39.5% to 109% premium to the last close.</li>
</ul>



Get Nice (64 HK)/GNH is in a trading halt “pending the release of an announcement in relation to the Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers.”
Mr Hung (Chairman) is likely to reload his 2020 offer. The key difference is that he will seek to privatise GNH at this time.
I use several methods to triangulate the likely offer price, which suggests an offer of HK$4.74 to HK$7.09 per share, representing a 39.5% to 109% premium to the last close.


Get Nice Holdings (64 HK): Chairman to Take It Private?

<ul>
<li>I tally 21 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.</li>
<li>Three new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/atlas-arteria-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14430:1" rel="noopener">Atlas Arteria (ALX AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/european-lithium-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10716:1" rel="noopener">European Lithium (EUR AU)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ooh-media-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8662:1" rel="noopener">oOh!Media Ltd (OML AU)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates/news also took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/humm-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35366:1" rel="noopener">Humm Group (HUM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/enn-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:316:1" rel="noopener">ENN Energy (2688 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/makino-milling-machine-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5200:1" rel="noopener">Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sankei-real-estate-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35239:1" rel="noopener">Sankei Real Estate (2972 JP)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sankei-real-estate-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35239:1" rel="noopener"></a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 21 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.
Three new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: Atlas Arteria (ALX AU), European Lithium (EUR AU), and oOh!Media Ltd (OML AU).
Key updates/news also took place on: Humm Group (HUM AU), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP), and Sankei Real Estate (2972 JP).


Asia-Pac M&A Weekly Wrap: Atlas Arteria, European Lithium, OOh!Media Ltd, ENN Energy, Makino Milling

Hong Kong

Bright Smart Securities & Commodities Group Limited is an investment holding company providing diverse financial services in Hong Kong. These services include broking in securities, commodities, and futures, along with margin and IPO financing, bullion trading, and asset management. The company was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Central, Hong Kong.

Bright Smart Securities & Commodities (1428 HK)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Bright Smart Securities & Commodities (1428 HK)

Musings On Guotai Haitong (601211 CH)'s Expected Offer For Guotai Junan (1788 HK)

I think around $3/share would be viewed as fair. Guotai Haitong Securities has the clout to go MUCH higher. The question is whether they need to.

David Blennerhassett

Guotai Junan International (1788 HK): Privatisation by Guotai Haitong Securities?

It is likely that Guotai Haitong Securities is seeking to privatise GJTAI. The timing would be opportunistic, as GJTAI has underperformed its peers...

Arun George

Get Nice Holdings (64 HK): Chairman’s Scheme Offer Is Light

While the offer represents a five-year high, it is light, implying a P/B multiple at a discount to precedent transactions and peer multiples....

Arun George

Get Nice Holdings (64 HK): Chairman to Take It Private?

Mr Hung (Chairman) is likely seeking to privatise GNH. My analysis suggests an offer of HK$4.74 to HK$7.09 per share, representing a 40% to 109%...

Arun George

Asia-Pac M&A Weekly Wrap: Atlas Arteria, European Lithium, OOh!Media Ltd, ENN Energy, Makino Milling

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)