HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/futu-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27858:1" rel="noopener">Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU US)</a>'s 2Q26 non-GAAP net profit growth of 40.1% is impressive, suggesting that the negative impact of regulatory issues is fading. </li>
<li>Operational metrics accelerated sequentially, partly due to the solid HK IPO pipeline, which is likely to sustain. 3Q26 momentum moderated slightly but is manageable.</li>
<li>Its 12.1x FY26 PER is inflated given the room for earnings upgrades. It is also cheaper than the average of 17.2x since 2021 and 13.7x since 2025.</li>
</ul>



Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU US)'s 2Q26 non-GAAP net profit growth of 40.1% is impressive, suggesting that the negative impact of regulatory issues is fading. 
Operational metrics accelerated sequentially, partly due to the solid HK IPO pipeline, which is likely to sustain. 3Q26 momentum moderated slightly but is manageable.
Its 12.1x FY26 PER is inflated given the room for earnings upgrades. It is also cheaper than the average of 17.2x since 2021 and 13.7x since 2025.


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Guotai Junan International / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>After broker/investment bank <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guotai-junan-international-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13438:1" rel="noopener">Guotai Junan (1788 HK)</a> (GJI) was suspended last month pursuant to the Takeover's Code, an Offer from its state-backed parent <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guotai-haitong-securities-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22740:1" rel="noopener">Guotai Haitong (601211 CH)</a> (GHS) was expected.</li>
<li>That unfolded last Friday evening (7th July), with GHS pitching a pre-conditional (SASAC/NDRC) Scheme at HK$3/share, a 44.2% premium to last close, bang in-line with my estimate. Terms are final. 
</li>
<li>The pre-con long stop date is the 31st  October. That's uncommonly quick. This could (should) be wrapped up before year-end. Plus there are some quirky Scheme vote-blocking %s.</li>
</ul>


After broker/investment bank Guotai Junan (1788 HK) (GJI) was suspended last month pursuant to the Takeover's Code, an Offer from its state-backed parent Guotai Haitong (601211 CH) (GHS) was expected.
That unfolded last Friday evening (7th July), with GHS pitching a pre-conditional (SASAC/NDRC) Scheme at HK$3/share, a 44.2% premium to last close, bang in-line with my estimate. Terms are final. 

The pre-con long stop date is the 31st  October. That's uncommonly quick. This could (should) be wrapped up before year-end. Plus there are some quirky Scheme vote-blocking %s.


Guotai Junan (1788 HK): Get Involved Here

Guotai Junan International / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guotai-haitong-securities-co-ltd-class-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23752:1" rel="noopener">Guotai Haitong Securities (2611 HK)</a> proposed to privatise <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guotai-junan-international-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13438:1" rel="noopener">Guotai Junan International (1788 HK)</a> at HK$3.0, a 44.2% premium to the pre-suspension price, which looks good enough. </li>
<li>The proposed price equals 11.9x PER for FY26F, higher than the average of 10.1x since 2024. This is better than the sector's average PER of 10.3x.</li>
<li>It also equates to 1.6x 12-month forward P/B, or 1.3SD above the 5-year average, well reflecting a projected ROE recovery in the next two years.</li>
</ul>



Guotai Haitong Securities (2611 HK) proposed to privatise Guotai Junan International (1788 HK) at HK$3.0, a 44.2% premium to the pre-suspension price, which looks good enough. 
The proposed price equals 11.9x PER for FY26F, higher than the average of 10.1x since 2024. This is better than the sector's average PER of 10.3x.
It also equates to 1.6x 12-month forward P/B, or 1.3SD above the 5-year average, well reflecting a projected ROE recovery in the next two years.


Guotai Junan Intl (1788 HK): A Good Enough Privatisation Price

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guotai-junan-international-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13438:1" rel="noopener">Guotai Junan International (1788 HK)</a>/GJTAI announced a preconditional scheme offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guotai-haitong-securities-co-ltd-class-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23752:1" rel="noopener">Guotai Haitong Securities (2611 HK)</a> at HK$3.00, a 44.2% premium to the last close. The offer price is final. </li>
<li>HKEx privatisations, which require regulatory approvals, have recently been shunned. However, the precondition related to NDRC and Shanghai SASAC regulatory approvals is low risk. </li>
<li>While the offer is below the six-month high, it is attractive compared to peer and precedent transaction multiples. Barring a significant re-rating of peers, this should get done. </li>
</ul>



Guotai Junan International (1788 HK)/GJTAI announced a preconditional scheme offer from Guotai Haitong Securities (2611 HK) at HK$3.00, a 44.2% premium to the last close. The offer price is final. 
HKEx privatisations, which require regulatory approvals, have recently been shunned. However, the precondition related to NDRC and Shanghai SASAC regulatory approvals is low risk. 
While the offer is below the six-month high, it is attractive compared to peer and precedent transaction multiples. Barring a significant re-rating of peers, this should get done. 


Guotai Junan International (1788 HK): Precon Privatisation by Guotai Haitong Securities at HK$3.00

Maxnerva Technology Services / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On the 27th July 2026, IT integrator <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maxnerva-technology-services-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17502:1" rel="noopener">Maxnerva Technology Services (1037 HK)</a> announced its two top shareholders - FSK and FDG - had entered into SPA's with Foxconn at HK$0.6374/share.</li>
<li>Assuming the SPAs complete (primarily requiring Vietnam Competition Commission approval), Foxconn's stake increases from 6.61% (indirect) to 40.46%, triggering a conditional mandatory general offer (50% tendering condition) also at HK$0.6374/share. </li>
<li>Arguably this is a Hon Hai/Foxconn internal restructuring exercise. It's a decent premium though; enough to (likely) clear the 50% tendering condition. Listing status maintained, hence a decent back-end proposition. </li>
</ul>


On the 27th July 2026, IT integrator Maxnerva Technology Services (1037 HK) announced its two top shareholders - FSK and FDG - had entered into SPA's with Foxconn at HK$0.6374/share.
Assuming the SPAs complete (primarily requiring Vietnam Competition Commission approval), Foxconn's stake increases from 6.61% (indirect) to 40.46%, triggering a conditional mandatory general offer (50% tendering condition) also at HK$0.6374/share. 
Arguably this is a Hon Hai/Foxconn internal restructuring exercise. It's a decent premium though; enough to (likely) clear the 50% tendering condition. Listing status maintained, hence a decent back-end proposition. 


Hong Kong

Bright Smart Securities & Commodities Group Limited is an investment holding company providing diverse financial services in Hong Kong. These services include broking in securities, commodities, and futures, along with margin and IPO financing, bullion trading, and asset management. The company was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Central, Hong Kong.

Bright Smart Securities & Commodities (1428 HK)

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Bright Smart Securities & Commodities (1428 HK)

Futu Holdings (FUTU US): A Splendid Show

Futu Holdings' 2Q26 results are impressive, and operating metrics have accelerated sequentially. The impact of regulatory issues is fading, and it...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Guotai Junan (1788 HK): Get Involved Here

At 5.8%/15.5% gross/annualised spread, I'd be a buyer here. This is a pretty clean deal. The risk this is blocked is low.

David Blennerhassett

Guotai Junan Intl (1788 HK): A Good Enough Privatisation Price

Guotai Haitong proposes to privatise Guotai Junan International at HK$3.0, a 44.2% premium over the closing price, offering a higher-than-average...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Guotai Junan International (1788 HK): Precon Privatisation by Guotai Haitong Securities at HK$3.00

While the offer is below the six-month high, it is attractive compared to peer and precedent transaction multiples. Barring a significant re-rating...

Arun George

Maxnerva Tech (1037 HK): Foxconn's MGO

If illiquid arbs are your thing, get involved here, either for the MGO (current 6.2% spread); or for the back-end re-rate.

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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Futu Holdings (FUTU US): A Splendid Show

Futu Holdings' 2Q26 results are impressive, and operating metrics have accelerated sequentially. The impact of regulatory issues is fading, and it...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Guotai Junan (1788 HK): Get Involved Here

At 5.8%/15.5% gross/annualised spread, I'd be a buyer here. This is a pretty clean deal. The risk this is blocked is low.

David Blennerhassett

Guotai Junan Intl (1788 HK): A Good Enough Privatisation Price

​Guotai Haitong proposes to privatise Guotai Junan International at HK$3.0, a 44.2% premium over the closing price, offering a higher-than-average...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Guotai Junan International (1788 HK): Precon Privatisation by Guotai Haitong Securities at HK$3.00

While the offer is below the six-month high, it is attractive compared to peer and precedent transaction multiples. Barring a significant re-rating...

Arun George

Maxnerva Tech (1037 HK): Foxconn's MGO

If illiquid arbs are your thing, get involved here, either for the MGO (current 6.2% spread); or for the back-end re-rate.

David Blennerhassett

Guotai Haitong proposes to privatise Guotai Junan International at HK$3.0, a 44.2% premium over the closing price, offering a higher-than-average...