Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Toyota Group cross-holding ecosystem is in flux. They started with a small announcement by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aisin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11809:1" rel="noopener">Aisin (7259 JP)</a> but moves have come fast and furious.</li>
<li>Apparently minorities are grumbling to the SFC about the low-balled Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asia-cement-china-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3374:1" rel="noopener">Asia Cement China (743 HK)</a>. And for good reason. The best course of action? Vote against the Scheme.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hanwha-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10619:1" rel="noopener">Hanwha Corporation (000880 KS)</a> is trading at a steep NAV discount. And the controlling family is making  a partial Offer to gain majority control. </li>
</ul>


The Toyota Group cross-holding ecosystem is in flux. They started with a small announcement by Aisin (7259 JP) but moves have come fast and furious.
Apparently minorities are grumbling to the SFC about the low-balled Offer for Asia Cement China (743 HK). And for good reason. The best course of action? Vote against the Scheme.

Hanwha Corporation (000880 KS) is trading at a steep NAV discount. And the controlling family is making  a partial Offer to gain majority control. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Toyota, Asia Cement, Hanwha Corp, Kokusai Electric, Keisei Electric

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

<ul>
<li>On 8 July (ahead of 19 July PUSU deadline), Carlsberg and Britvic PLC agreed a 1,315p/share offer, 5% above the prior one (I mentioned that an improved offer could come &gt;1,300p).</li>
<li>The offer represents a 12.6x EV/fwd EBITDA, above the 10-y 10.6x average, which seems reasonable, although interestingly, there are no irrevocable undertakings from any of the top shareholders.</li>
<li>The offer price is towards my bull case and Britvic's shareholders are capturing a good part of the synergies. Spread is 3.98%/5.93% (gross/annualised, assuming settlement by 15 March). Long.</li>
</ul>


On 8 July (ahead of 19 July PUSU deadline), Carlsberg and Britvic PLC agreed a 1,315p/share offer, 5% above the prior one (I mentioned that an improved offer could come &gt;1,300p).
The offer represents a 12.6x EV/fwd EBITDA, above the 10-y 10.6x average, which seems reasonable, although interestingly, there are no irrevocable undertakings from any of the top shareholders.
The offer price is towards my bull case and Britvic's shareholders are capturing a good part of the synergies. Spread is 3.98%/5.93% (gross/annualised, assuming settlement by 15 March). Long.


Carlsberg/Britvic: And The Third Proposal Arrived

Leading International Investment Research, Edison Investment Research

Edison Investment Research

Leading International Investment Research

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisors and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting.

Equity Bottom-Up

Edison Investment Research is terminating coverage on Oxford Cannabinoid Technologies (OCTP), Britvic (BVIC), Ultimovacs (ULTI), DFR Gold (DFR), The Merchants Trust (MRCH), PB Holding (PBH) and Biodexa Pharmaceuticals (BDRX). Please note you should no longer rely on any previous research or estimates for this company. All forecasts should now be considered redundant. Previously published reports can still be accessed via our website.

Edison Investment Research is terminating coverage on Oxford Cannabinoid Technologies (OCTP), Britvic (BVIC), Ultimovacs (ULTI), DFR Gold (DFR), The Merchants Trust (MRCH), PB Holding (PBH) and Biodexa Pharmaceuticals (BDRX). Please note you should no longer rely on any previous research or estimates for this company. All forecasts should now be considered redundant. Previously published reports can still be accessed via our website. 

Keisei Electric Railway Co / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>No surprise: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway (9009 JP)</a> shareholders voted down Palliser's proposal. If the vote was close, Palliser may ups its rhetorical game, and takes a harder stance.</li>
<li>Argyle failed to boot one <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-merchants-china-direct-investments" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6862:1" rel="noopener">CMCDI (133 HK)</a> director. They'll next target the management agreement renewal; and agitate the company buy back 20% of shares outstanding at 90% of NAV.</li>
<li>The Offeror now has 90.16% in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-eastern-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13993:1" rel="noopener">Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP)</a> - so this will get suspended at the close of the Offer.</li>
</ul>


No surprise: Keisei Electric Railway (9009 JP) shareholders voted down Palliser's proposal. If the vote was close, Palliser may ups its rhetorical game, and takes a harder stance.
Argyle failed to boot one CMCDI (133 HK) director. They'll next target the management agreement renewal; and agitate the company buy back 20% of shares outstanding at 90% of NAV.
The Offeror now has 90.16% in Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP) - so this will get suspended at the close of the Offer.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric, China Merchants, Great Eastern, Jardine Matheson/JCNC

<ul>
<li>On June 24, Carlsberg announced that Pepsico had agreed to waive a change of control clause in its bottling deals with Britvic. The current proposal is 1250p (+9.5p interim).</li>
<li>The offer represents an undemanding 12x EV/fwd NTM EBITDA. My standalone base case fair-value estimate is 1,056p/share. An improved offer could come &gt;1,300p, although 1,420p (13.3x wouldn't  be unreasonable).</li>
<li>Gross spread to the revised offer is 6.2% (6.9% including interim). Shares are pricing a 72% probability of deal success. I believe Carlsberg will come with an improved offer. Long.</li>
</ul>


On June 24, Carlsberg announced that Pepsico had agreed to waive a change of control clause in its bottling deals with Britvic. The current proposal is 1250p (+9.5p interim).
The offer represents an undemanding 12x EV/fwd NTM EBITDA. My standalone base case fair-value estimate is 1,056p/share. An improved offer could come &gt;1,300p, although 1,420p (13.3x wouldn't  be unreasonable).
Gross spread to the revised offer is 6.2% (6.9% including interim). Shares are pricing a 72% probability of deal success. I believe Carlsberg will come with an improved offer. Long.


Carlsberg/Britvic: Awaiting a Third Proposal

United Kingdom

Britvic is a British soft drinks producer that manufactures, markets, and sells a variety of non-alcoholic beverages, including fruit juices, squash, and carbonated drinks. The company holds a portfolio of its own brands such as Robinsons, Tango, J2O, and Teisseire, and also produces and sells PepsiCo brands like Pepsi MAX and 7UP under exclusive agreements in Great Britain and Ireland. Britvic is headquartered in Hemel Hempstead, England, and was founded in 1938.

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Britvic (BVICN MM)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Toyota, Asia Cement, Hanwha Corp, Kokusai Electric, Keisei Electric

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Carlsberg/Britvic: And The Third Proposal Arrived

Carlsberg and Britvic PLC agree on 1,315p/share offer ahead of PUSU deadline, representing a 5% increase and capturing synergies for shareholders....

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Britvic - Termination of coverage

Edison Investment Research is terminating coverage on Oxford Cannabinoid Technologies (OCTP), Britvic (BVIC), Ultimovacs (ULTI), DFR Gold (DFR),...

Edison Investment Research

Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric, China Merchants, Great Eastern, Jardine Matheson/JCNC

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Carlsberg/Britvic: Awaiting a Third Proposal

On June 24, Carlsberg announced that Pepsico had agreed to waive a change of control clause in its bottling deals with Britvic. The current...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Toyota, Asia Cement, Hanwha Corp, Kokusai Electric, Keisei Electric

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Carlsberg/Britvic: And The Third Proposal Arrived

​Carlsberg and Britvic PLC agree on 1,315p/share offer ahead of PUSU deadline, representing a 5% increase and capturing synergies for shareholders....

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Britvic - Termination of coverage

Edison Investment Research is terminating coverage on Oxford Cannabinoid Technologies (OCTP), Britvic (BVIC), Ultimovacs (ULTI), DFR Gold (DFR),...

Edison Investment Research

Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric, China Merchants, Great Eastern, Jardine Matheson/JCNC

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Carlsberg/Britvic: Awaiting a Third Proposal

On June 24, Carlsberg announced that Pepsico had agreed to waive a change of control clause in its bottling deals with Britvic. The current...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Carlsberg and Britvic PLC agree on 1,315p/share offer ahead of PUSU deadline, representing a 5% increase and capturing synergies for shareholders....