AI and Global Deep Tech, Mint Finance

Uttkarsh Kohli

AI and Global Deep Tech

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Revenue's surged 47% YoY, driven by a 200% increase in infrastructure software revenue. Despite strong revenue growth, the company posted a $1.88B net loss due to a $4.5B tax provision</li>
<li>AI revenue is projected to grow by 10% sequentially in Q4, surpassing $3.5B, and is expected to total $12B for fiscal 2024. VMware annualized booking value increased 32% QoQ.</li>
<li>Despite beating Q3 estimates, Broadcom’s Q4 revenue guidance of $14B fell short of the $14.04B expected by analysts. This led to a 7% drop in shares post-earnings.</li>
</ul>


Revenue's surged 47% YoY, driven by a 200% increase in infrastructure software revenue. Despite strong revenue growth, the company posted a $1.88B net loss due to a $4.5B tax provision
AI revenue is projected to grow by 10% sequentially in Q4, surpassing $3.5B, and is expected to total $12B for fiscal 2024. VMware annualized booking value increased 32% QoQ.
Despite beating Q3 estimates, Broadcom’s Q4 revenue guidance of $14B fell short of the $14.04B expected by analysts. This led to a 7% drop in shares post-earnings.


Broadcom Surpasses Q3 Earnings Estimates but Guidance Worries Investors, Shares Drop 7%

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>News or rumors of Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom cutting down CoWoS orders at TSMC have been flying around since last week (Taiwan media, some sell-side analysts).</li>
<li>TSMC guided for AI revenues doubling in 2025. Nvidia’s CEO clarified that CoWoS-S orders are declining because CoWoS-L is increasing. This transition has been known for over 1 year.</li>
<li>TSMC is converting CoWoS-S to L and adding capacity in Tainan Science Park phase 2 &amp; 3. In 2024, CoWoS-L was ~10% of CoWoS output, increasing to 50-60% in 2025.</li>
</ul>


News or rumors of Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom cutting down CoWoS orders at TSMC have been flying around since last week (Taiwan media, some sell-side analysts).
TSMC guided for AI revenues doubling in 2025. Nvidia’s CEO clarified that CoWoS-S orders are declining because CoWoS-L is increasing. This transition has been known for over 1 year.
TSMC is converting CoWoS-S to L and adding capacity in Tainan Science Park phase 2 &amp; 3. In 2024, CoWoS-L was ~10% of CoWoS output, increasing to 50-60% in 2025.


TSMC Order Cut Rumors: Keep Calm and Ignore the Rumors.

<ul>
<li>Following AMD AI conference on 10 Oct, many question AMD's estimate of the AI Accelerators market reaching US$500bn by 2028 (from $45bn in 2023).  </li>
<li>AI Accelerators market value is increasing by 150% in 2024, reaching US$113bn. Based on TSMC CoWoS capacity, we  think reasonable to expect 115% growth over 2025-26 or US$276bn in 2026.</li>
<li>TSMC makes all the chips. HBM is dominated by Hynix. Nvidia should remain the dominant vendor for years. AMD and Broadcom should grow faster than NVDA. Outsourcing: Alchip, Marvel, Mediatek. </li>
</ul>


Following AMD AI conference on 10 Oct, many question AMD's estimate of the AI Accelerators market reaching US$500bn by 2028 (from $45bn in 2023).  
AI Accelerators market value is increasing by 150% in 2024, reaching US$113bn. Based on TSMC CoWoS capacity, we  think reasonable to expect 115% growth over 2025-26 or US$276bn in 2026.
TSMC makes all the chips. HBM is dominated by Hynix. Nvidia should remain the dominant vendor for years. AMD and Broadcom should grow faster than NVDA. Outsourcing: Alchip, Marvel, Mediatek. 


How Big Is the AI Accelerator Market? AMD, Broadcom, Nvidia, SK Hynix, TSMC

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The rally of the Asia Tech sector (+24% YTD) is highly concentrated in a handful of stocks. TSMC is up 64% but Samsung is down -22% YTD. </li>
<li>With the exception of AI, end-demand isn’t great. Smartphone up 8% but below 2019-21 level. PC flattish. x86 Server flattish. Telecom capex declining. Automotive electronics declining.   </li>
<li>AI is the most disruptive trend since Cloud in 2010. Years of increasing Capex are in front of us. But short-term, stocks are properly valued to rich, growth is slowing.</li>
</ul>


The rally of the Asia Tech sector (+24% YTD) is highly concentrated in a handful of stocks. TSMC is up 64% but Samsung is down -22% YTD. 
With the exception of AI, end-demand isn’t great. Smartphone up 8% but below 2019-21 level. PC flattish. x86 Server flattish. Telecom capex declining. Automotive electronics declining.   
AI is the most disruptive trend since Cloud in 2010. Years of increasing Capex are in front of us. But short-term, stocks are properly valued to rich, growth is slowing.


All Is Not Well in Tech Sector, AI Growth Slows, TSMC Expensive. Samsung, SK Hynix More Attractive.

Global TMT Analyst, Ex-PM, 30 years experience

Neil Campling

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Generative AI seen through the lens of corporate earnings shows a lack of ROI or growth drivers in applications <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/broadcom-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:998:1" rel="noopener">Broadcom (AVGO US)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hewlett-packard-enterprise-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26511:1" rel="noopener">Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE US)</a>  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alphabet-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33361:1" rel="noopener">Alphabet (GOOGL US)</a> </li>
<li>U.S. semi equipment restrictions to China could negatively impact Tokyo Electron, ASML results in 2025 <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asml-holding-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21097:1" rel="noopener">ASML Holding NV (ASML NA)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-electron-device-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10301:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Electron Device (2760 JP)</a> </li>
<li>Flagship global Tech conference in NYC suggests interest has picked up in global software above hardware in a notable shift</li>
</ul>


Generative AI seen through the lens of corporate earnings shows a lack of ROI or growth drivers in applications Broadcom (AVGO US)Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE US)  Alphabet (GOOGL US) 
U.S. semi equipment restrictions to China could negatively impact Tokyo Electron, ASML results in 2025 ASML Holding NV (ASML NA)Tokyo Electron Device (2760 JP) 
Flagship global Tech conference in NYC suggests interest has picked up in global software above hardware in a notable shift


Global Tech Weekly - Focus on AI, Semis, China V U.S., Software V Hardware. AI Party Ending?

United States

Broadcom Inc. designs, develops, and supplies semiconductor and infrastructure software solutions. The Company offers storage adapters, controllers, networking processors, motion control encoders, and optical sensors, as well as infrastructure and security software to modernize, optimize, and secure the most complex hybrid environments. Broadcom serves customers worldwide.

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Broadcom (AVGO US)

Broadcom Surpasses Q3 Earnings Estimates but Guidance Worries Investors, Shares Drop 7%

Broadcom’s Q3 revenue reached $13.07B (vs. $12.97B est.) and EPS was $1.24 (vs. $1.20 est.). Yet, shares fell 7% on weaker Q4 revenue guidance and...

Mint Finance

TSMC Order Cut Rumors: Keep Calm and Ignore the Rumors.

Rumors of Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom cutting CoWoS orders at TSMC are debunked as TSMC transitions to CoWoS-L, expects a doubling of AI revenues in...

Nicolas Baratte

How Big Is the AI Accelerator Market? AMD, Broadcom, Nvidia, SK Hynix, TSMC

AMD estimates AI Accelerators will reach US$500bn by 2028 ($45bn in 2023). Accelerators increased by 150% in 2024, $113bn. Based on TSMC CoWoS,...

Nicolas Baratte

All Is Not Well in Tech Sector, AI Growth Slows, TSMC Expensive. Samsung, SK Hynix More Attractive.

Difficult juncture for Asia Tech. Consumer and Enterprise segments are flattish; stocks have underperformed. AI is the only growth driver, growth...

Nicolas Baratte

Global Tech Weekly - Focus on AI, Semis, China V U.S., Software V Hardware. AI Party Ending?

AI related earnings exhibit a lack of ROI or uplift. Is the AI euphoria coming to an end? More U.S. sanctions could hurt Japan & European...

Neil Campling

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Broadcom Surpasses Q3 Earnings Estimates but Guidance Worries Investors, Shares Drop 7%

Broadcom’s Q3 revenue reached $13.07B (vs. $12.97B est.) and EPS was $1.24 (vs. $1.20 est.). Yet, shares fell 7% on weaker Q4 revenue guidance and...

Mint Finance

TSMC Order Cut Rumors: Keep Calm and Ignore the Rumors.

​Rumors of Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom cutting CoWoS orders at TSMC are debunked as TSMC transitions to CoWoS-L, expects a doubling of AI revenues in...

Nicolas Baratte

How Big Is the AI Accelerator Market? AMD, Broadcom, Nvidia, SK Hynix, TSMC

AMD estimates AI Accelerators will reach US$500bn by 2028 ($45bn in 2023). Accelerators increased by 150% in 2024, $113bn. Based on TSMC CoWoS,...

Nicolas Baratte

All Is Not Well in Tech Sector, AI Growth Slows, TSMC Expensive. Samsung, SK Hynix More Attractive.

Difficult juncture for ​Asia Tech. Consumer and Enterprise segments are flattish; stocks have underperformed. AI is the only growth driver, growth...

Nicolas Baratte

Global Tech Weekly - Focus on AI, Semis, China V U.S., Software V Hardware. AI Party Ending?

AI related earnings exhibit a lack of ROI or uplift. Is the AI euphoria coming to an end? More U.S. sanctions could hurt Japan & European...

Neil Campling

Rumors of Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom cutting CoWoS orders at TSMC are debunked as TSMC transitions to CoWoS-L, expects a doubling of AI revenues in...

Difficult juncture for Asia Tech. Consumer and Enterprise segments are flattish; stocks have underperformed. AI is the only growth driver, growth...