European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Brookfield acquired a 53.12% stake in Neoen for €39.85/share, triggering a mandatory tender offer for remaining shares and bonds, aiming for a squeeze-out and delisting Neoen.</li>
<li>Regulatory approvals were secured from the EU, France, the US, and Australia, addressing antitrust, foreign investment laws, and energy security concerns.</li>
<li>My PT remains €39.85, in line with the price offered by Brookfield and its partners, which I believe is fair. Completion is expected in Q1 2025. Gross spread is 0.33%.Tender.</li>
</ul>


Brookfield acquired a 53.12% stake in Neoen for €39.85/share, triggering a mandatory tender offer for remaining shares and bonds, aiming for a squeeze-out and delisting Neoen.
Regulatory approvals were secured from the EU, France, the US, and Australia, addressing antitrust, foreign investment laws, and energy security concerns.
My PT remains €39.85, in line with the price offered by Brookfield and its partners, which I believe is fair. Completion is expected in Q1 2025. Gross spread is 0.33%.Tender.


IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/esr-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27983:1" rel="noopener">ESR Group (1821 HK)</a>’s preconditional scheme offer from the consortium is either cash (HK$13.00), scrip or a combination of cash/scrip. The offer is final.</li>
<li>The precondition relates to several regulatory approvals. The precondition satisfaction does not carry the same risk as the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-traditional-chinese-medicine" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:351:1" rel="noopener">China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)</a> deal break.   </li>
<li>The irrevocable (31.03% of outstanding shares) ensure that shareholders with blocking or close to blocking stakes are supportive. This is a done deal, with timing the key risk. </li>
</ul>



ESR Group (1821 HK)’s preconditional scheme offer from the consortium is either cash (HK$13.00), scrip or a combination of cash/scrip. The offer is final.
The precondition relates to several regulatory approvals. The precondition satisfaction does not carry the same risk as the China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK) deal break.   
The irrevocable (31.03% of outstanding shares) ensure that shareholders with blocking or close to blocking stakes are supportive. This is a done deal, with timing the key risk. 


ESR Group (1821 HK): Consortium’s Scheme Cash/Scrip Privatisation Offer

<ul>
<li>Brookfield has secured an €11 billion loan to refinance Grifols’ €9.2 billion net debt, paving the way for a potential takeover and significant control over Grifols’ operations.</li>
<li>Grifols' Q3 results reveal 12% revenue growth, strong free cash flow, and lower net debt, with 2024 targets reaffirmed for 7%+ revenue growth, €1.8 billion EBITDA, and 4.5x leverage.</li>
<li>The narrowing discount between Grifols’ A and B shares signals market optimism, reflecting confidence in a takeover. This would be my preferred strategy of playing this situation.</li>
</ul>


Brookfield has secured an €11 billion loan to refinance Grifols’ €9.2 billion net debt, paving the way for a potential takeover and significant control over Grifols’ operations.
Grifols' Q3 results reveal 12% revenue growth, strong free cash flow, and lower net debt, with 2024 targets reaffirmed for 7%+ revenue growth, €1.8 billion EBITDA, and 4.5x leverage.
The narrowing discount between Grifols’ A and B shares signals market optimism, reflecting confidence in a takeover. This would be my preferred strategy of playing this situation.


Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways down, with the support at 1,443/1,432 points and the resistance at 1,454/1,461 points (25/10-day EMA).</li><li>In the medium term, the index remains in a large sideways range of 1,273-1,716 points.</li><li>The short-term trend continues to decline, with the index seeking a major support level, with a pattern of lower highs and lower lows for the eighth consecutive day.</li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways down, with the support at 1,443/1,432 points and the resistance at 1,454/1,461 points (25/10-day EMA).In the medium term, the index remains in a large sideways range of 1,273-1,716 points.The short-term trend continues to decline, with the index seeking a major support level, with a pattern of lower highs and lower lows for the eighth consecutive day.

BoJ Meeting; US Earnings From Apple and Amazon

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/esr-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27983:1" rel="noopener">ESR Group (1821 HK)</a> provided a positive update on the indicative proposal. The update notes that the consortium has expanded from three to six, representing 39.91% of outstanding shares.</li>
<li>The addition of new consortium members is a positive. While the recent market rally is not a dealbreaker, it should give the consortium renewed impetus to launch an acceptable offer.   </li>
<li>The downside to a deal break is low as ESR’s valuation is undemanding, which is supported by the potential earnings recovery in a more benign interest rate environment.</li>
</ul>



ESR Group (1821 HK) provided a positive update on the indicative proposal. The update notes that the consortium has expanded from three to six, representing 39.91% of outstanding shares.
The addition of new consortium members is a positive. While the recent market rally is not a dealbreaker, it should give the consortium renewed impetus to launch an acceptable offer.   
The downside to a deal break is low as ESR’s valuation is undemanding, which is supported by the potential earnings recovery in a more benign interest rate environment.


ESR Group (1821 HK): Inching Closer to a Binding Proposal

Canada

Brookfield Asset Management Ltd. operates as an investment management firm. The Company focuses on property development, renewable energy, infrastructure, insurance, and private equity. Brookfield Asset Management serves customers worldwide.

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Brookfield Asset Management Lt (BAM US)

Brookfield/Neoen: Close to Completion

Brookfield acquires majority stake in Neoen, triggers mandatory tender offer for remaining shares and bonds, aiming for squeeze-out and delisting....

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

ESR Group (1821 HK): Consortium’s Scheme Cash/Scrip Privatisation Offer

The irrevocable (31.03% of outstanding shares) ensure that shareholders with blocking or close to blocking stakes are supportive. This is a done...

Arun George

Brookfield Refinances Grifols' Debt

Brookfield has secured an €11 billion loan to refinance Grifols’ debt, paving the way for a potential takeover and significant control over...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

BoJ Meeting; US Earnings From Apple and Amazon

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways down, with the support at 1,443/1,432 points and the resistance at 1,454/1,461 points...

Krungthai XSpring

ESR Group (1821 HK): Inching Closer to a Binding Proposal

The addition of new consortium members is a key positive. While the recent market rally is not a dealbreaker, it should give the consortium renewed...

Arun George

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Brookfield/Neoen: Close to Completion

​Brookfield acquires majority stake in Neoen, triggers mandatory tender offer for remaining shares and bonds, aiming for squeeze-out and delisting....

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

ESR Group (1821 HK): Consortium’s Scheme Cash/Scrip Privatisation Offer

The irrevocable (31.03% of outstanding shares) ensure that shareholders with blocking or close to blocking stakes are supportive. This is a done...

Arun George

Brookfield Refinances Grifols' Debt

Brookfield has secured an €11 billion loan to refinance Grifols’ debt, paving the way for a potential takeover and significant control over...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

BoJ Meeting; US Earnings From Apple and Amazon

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways down, with the support at 1,443/1,432 points and the resistance at 1,454/1,461 points...

Krungthai XSpring

ESR Group (1821 HK): Inching Closer to a Binding Proposal

The addition of new consortium members is a key positive. While the recent market rally is not a dealbreaker, it should give the consortium renewed...

Arun George

Brookfield acquires majority stake in Neoen, triggers mandatory tender offer for remaining shares and bonds, aiming for squeeze-out and delisting....