Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The review period for a global index commenced last week and will run through this week as well.</li>
<li>The announcement of the changes for the LQ45 Index should be announced in the coming week and will be implemented at the close on 31 January.</li>
<li>Huge inflows to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300 Index</a> trackers during the week while there was a big outflow from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tracker-fund-of-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29257:1" rel="noopener">Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (2800 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>


The review period for a global index commenced last week and will run through this week as well.
The announcement of the changes for the LQ45 Index should be announced in the coming week and will be implemented at the close on 31 January.
Huge inflows to CSI 300 Index trackers during the week while there was a big outflow from Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (2800 HK). 


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: ASX, KS200, KQ150, HSIII, STTF, L&F, Costa Group, Japan, Bud APAC

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Giant Biogene was listed in Hong Kong IPO in 2022. It has done well since and is now trading 45% above its IPO price, but its still cheap.</li>
<li>GB is a leader in the bioactive ingredient-based professional skin treatment product industry in China.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the company’s past performance and future prospects.</li>
</ul>


Giant Biogene was listed in Hong Kong IPO in 2022. It has done well since and is now trading 45% above its IPO price, but its still cheap.
GB is a leader in the bioactive ingredient-based professional skin treatment product industry in China.
In this note, we will talk about the company’s past performance and future prospects.


2024 High Conviction - Giant Biogene - Growth Rate Keeps Moving Higher

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Budweiser Brewing  APAC  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>In line with ours but likely below what the market expected, Bud APAC shares retreated another 4% upon its 3Q results, in which revenue/net profit grew/declined by +2.0%/-1.5% YoY.</li><li>In our view, while the market has stubbornly laser-focused on the weak S.Korea performance (sales/EBITDA - 5%/-21%), it seemed to have overlooked the solid APAC West performance.</li><li>For instance, the company’s China sales looked no worse than its major peers, considering a HSD% ASP uptick (vs Tsingtao/CR Beer: 8%/LSD%) and a flattish shipment (vs Tsingtao/CR Beer: -11%/-LSD%). </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

In line with ours but likely below what the market expected, Bud APAC shares retreated another 4% upon its 3Q results, in which revenue/net profit grew/declined by +2.0%/-1.5% YoY.In our view, while the market has stubbornly laser-focused on the weak S.Korea performance (sales/EBITDA - 5%/-21%), it seemed to have overlooked the solid APAC West performance.For instance, the company’s China sales looked no worse than its major peers, considering a HSD% ASP uptick (vs Tsingtao/CR Beer: 8%/LSD%) and a flattish shipment (vs Tsingtao/CR Beer: -11%/-LSD%). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Budweiser APAC (1876 HK) – 3Q Rev/NP +2%/-1%; S.Korea Disappointed

<ul><li>Bud APAC’s core net profit of US$279mn was slightly below us, owing to 1) a weak S.Korea performance which consisted of a 7% revenue decline and a 30% slip in normalised EBITDA, 2) a normalising effective tax base subsequent to a provision reversal in India, and 3) currency erosion driven by a weak RMB and KRW to USD.</li><li>Excluding the latter, Bud APAC reported an organic 14.9% sales growth for the quarter (vs 7.9% as on reported basis), with the help of the continuous strength in China that consisted of an 11.0% volume growth and a 7.8% ASP uptick.</li><li>While we assert that there is no quick fix to the operational landscape in S.Korea (though transient, per management), we think market might have overlooked the robust China momentum that looks to be parallel to our sector picks such as CR Beer (291HK, Buy) and Tsingtao (168HK, Buy). </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bud APAC’s core net profit of US$279mn was slightly below us, owing to 1) a weak S.Korea performance which consisted of a 7% revenue decline and a 30% slip in normalised EBITDA, 2) a normalising effective tax base subsequent to a provision reversal in India, and 3) currency erosion driven by a weak RMB and KRW to USD.Excluding the latter, Bud APAC reported an organic 14.9% sales growth for the quarter (vs 7.9% as on reported basis), with the help of the continuous strength in China that consisted of an 11.0% volume growth and a 7.8% ASP uptick.While we assert that there is no quick fix to the operational landscape in S.Korea (though transient, per management), we think market might have overlooked the robust China momentum that looks to be parallel to our sector picks such as CR Beer (291HK, Buy) and Tsingtao (168HK, Buy). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Budweiser APAC (1876 HK) – 2Q Organic Sales +15%

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a> has trended lower over the last couple of years and the stock is trading very close to its lows.</li>
<li>There has been a contraction in multiples and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a> trades cheaper than a lot of its Asia listed peers.</li>
<li>A potential index inclusion could bring in significant passive inflows and result in a rerating of the stock.</li>
</ul>



Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) has trended lower over the last couple of years and the stock is trading very close to its lows.
There has been a contraction in multiples and Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) trades cheaper than a lot of its Asia listed peers.
A potential index inclusion could bring in significant passive inflows and result in a rerating of the stock.


Thai Beverage (THBEV SP): Cheaper than Peers with an Upcoming Catalyst

China

Budweiser Brewing Company APAC Limited is a company principally engaged in the brewing and distribution of beer. The Company produces, imports, markets, distributes over 50 brands including Budweiser, Stella Artois, Corona, Hoegaarden, Cass, and Harbin. The principal markets include China, South Korea, India and Vietnam.

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Budweiser Brewing APAC (1876 HK)

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: ASX, KS200, KQ150, HSIII, STTF, L&F, Costa Group, Japan, Bud APAC

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

2024 High Conviction - Giant Biogene - Growth Rate Keeps Moving Higher

Giant Biogene was listed in Hong Kong IPO in 2022. It has done well since and is now trading 45% above its IPO price, but its still cheap.

Sumeet Singh

Budweiser APAC (1876 HK) – 3Q Rev/NP +2%/-1%; S.Korea Disappointed

In line with ours but likely below what the market expected, Bud APAC shares retreated another 4% upon its 3Q results, in which revenue/net profit...

CMB International

Budweiser APAC (1876 HK) – 2Q Organic Sales +15%

Bud APAC’s core net profit of US$279mn was slightly below us, owing to 1) a weak S.Korea performance which consisted of a 7% revenue decline and a...

CMB International

Thai Beverage (THBEV SP): Cheaper than Peers with an Upcoming Catalyst

Thai Bev has outperformed Bud APAC and CR Beer over the last 5 months. There could be an index inclusion in the next month and that could help the...

Brian Freitas

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