TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Inline performance and inline guidance...the stock mistakingly traded down on Tinder's optically weak sub growth.</li>
<li>Longer term, CEO BK Kim is making the right moves reorganizing the company to focus on the growth engines (Tinder, Hinge), the idiosyncrantic drivers (Asia), and cost cutting (Evergreen Brands).</li>
<li>Reiterated 2023 guidance will prove conservative, with the stock still trading at alltime lows despite the 30% move up so far this year...we buy this dip.</li>
</ul>


Inline performance and inline guidance...the stock mistakingly traded down on Tinder's optically weak sub growth.
Longer term, CEO BK Kim is making the right moves reorganizing the company to focus on the growth engines (Tinder, Hinge), the idiosyncrantic drivers (Asia), and cost cutting (Evergreen Brands).
Reiterated 2023 guidance will prove conservative, with the stock still trading at alltime lows despite the 30% move up so far this year...we buy this dip.


<ul>
<li>Match is down 70% in 2022, and down 50% relative to the S&amp;P. </li>
<li>Despite impressive new CEO and a self help story, shares have continued to underperform rival Bumble and the market by wide margin on macro concerns.</li>
<li>13x Forward EBITDA for a company forecast to grow EBITDA at a 16% CAGR through 2025 (we think closer to 20%), has 35% EBITDA margins and $1B in annual FCF</li>
</ul>


Match is down 70% in 2022, and down 50% relative to the S&amp;P. 
Despite impressive new CEO and a self help story, shares have continued to underperform rival Bumble and the market by wide margin on macro concerns.
13x Forward EBITDA for a company forecast to grow EBITDA at a 16% CAGR through 2025 (we think closer to 20%), has 35% EBITDA margins and $1B in annual FCF


Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul><li>Bumble delivered a mixed set of third-quarter results as it failed to meet market expectations on the revenue front but managed an earnings beat.</li><li>The company produced a decent top-line growth of 17% year over year in Q3, driven by 28% growth for the Bumble App.</li><li>The revenue growth would have been 10 points higher and Bumble App revenue growth would have been 5 points higher after adjusting for forex and the situation in Ukraine.</li></ul>

Bumble delivered a mixed set of third-quarter results as it failed to meet market expectations on the revenue front but managed an earnings beat.The company produced a decent top-line growth of 17% year over year in Q3, driven by 28% growth for the Bumble App.The revenue growth would have been 10 points higher and Bumble App revenue growth would have been 5 points higher after adjusting for forex and the situation in Ukraine.

Bumble Inc.: Blind Dating Offering & Other Drivers

<ul>
<li>After a massive guidedown last quarter, Match is beginning to show stability in the business, and offered a cautiously optimistic return to growth guide for 2023.</li>
<li>Tinder rebuild underway, 16% FX-Neutral growth was 2% ahead of consensus and drove the quarter's beat.</li>
<li>5-Pronged plan by new CEO Kim seems well thought out for what ails Match.</li>
</ul>


After a massive guidedown last quarter, Match is beginning to show stability in the business, and offered a cautiously optimistic return to growth guide for 2023.
Tinder rebuild underway, 16% FX-Neutral growth was 2% ahead of consensus and drove the quarter's beat.
5-Pronged plan by new CEO Kim seems well thought out for what ails Match.


<ul><li>Bumble delivered a mixed set of results for the past quarter surpassing Wall Street expectations on the revenue front but missing out on earinings.</li><li>The Bumble app continued to grow as the company performed well in traditional as well as international growth markets.</li><li>In the quarter, Bumble brought a wide portfolio of discovery-oriented products to the market.</li></ul>

Bumble delivered a mixed set of results for the past quarter surpassing Wall Street expectations on the revenue front but missing out on earinings.The Bumble app continued to grow as the company performed well in traditional as well as international growth markets.In the quarter, Bumble brought a wide portfolio of discovery-oriented products to the market.

Bumble Inc.: New Feature Additions & Other Developments

United States

Bumble Inc. develops application software. The Company offers an online dating application that enables users to meet new people for dating, friendship, and relationship. Bumble serves customers worldwide.

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Bumble (BMBL US)

MTCH 4Q22: More Bullish Than You Think

Match delivered a deceptively bullish earnings report...while optically inline and Tinder optically weak...the changes under the surface by new CEO...

Aaron Gabin

TMT Left for Dead Long Ideas: Match

Macro concerns over Match's 2023 earnings guidance are overstated. 30% of revenues tied to a la carte purchases in Tinder can be overcome by better...

Aaron Gabin

Bumble Inc.: Blind Dating Offering & Other Drivers

Bumble delivered a mixed set of third-quarter results as it failed to meet market expectations on the revenue front but managed an earnings...

Baptista Research

Match Group 3Q22: Turnaround Brewing?

Fallen monopolist on the mend. We like CEO Kim's turnaround plan: more female centric features, virtual currency, and reallocating resources to the...

Aaron Gabin

Bumble Inc.: New Feature Additions & Other Developments

Bumble delivered a mixed set of results for the past quarter surpassing Wall Street expectations on the revenue front but missing out on...

Baptista Research

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