Global TMT Analyst, Ex-PM, 30 years experience

Neil Campling

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>EV demand slump prompts CATL production cuts, lithium prices fall below breakeven</li>
<li>What happened to Nvidia's MOAT? AMD is gaining inference traction </li>
<li>Samsung issues at 2nm and 4nm and TSM continues to widen tech leadership. TSM as a Monopsony could hurt TEL and ASML in time</li>
</ul>


EV demand slump prompts CATL production cuts, lithium prices fall below breakeven
What happened to Nvidia's MOAT? AMD is gaining inference traction 
Samsung issues at 2nm and 4nm and TSM continues to widen tech leadership. TSM as a Monopsony could hurt TEL and ASML in time


TMT Daily - EVs, CATL, AMD V NVDA, Samsung V TSM Tokyo Electron, ASML, Telco, Shopify, Match, Bumble

Fundamental Analyses, Contrarian Cashflows

Contrarian Cashflows

Fundamental Analyses

The purpose of Contrarian Cashflows is to document my investment research and share it with everyone who is interested in value investing. My long term aspiration for Contrarian Cashflows is to become a platform for professional investors and serious amateurs where they can get inspiration and discuss investing-related topics.
I plan to publish one company deep dive per month that is guided by my investment approach. All information I use for my write-ups is publicly available and most of the time directly sourced from public filings issued by the respective companies. To guarantee maximum transparency, for every post I provide a list of all used sources in the resources section.
Contrarian Cashflows is built around the principles of respect, honesty, open-mindedness and a touch of humour. Please consider these principles in any engagement interaction with me, other readers and the content on this blog. Misbehaviour is not tolerated.
If you want to reach out to me directly, the best way is via LinkedIn, Twitter or email. You can find the details at my homepage contrariancashflows.com

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Electrovac AG is a German-Austrian industrial manufacturer, founded in 1947 and headquartered in Salzweg, Germany, that develops, produces, and sells hermetically sealed housings, glass-to-metal seals, and ceramic-to-metal seal components for demanding technical applications.</li><li>Its core business, Personal Safety, uses these products to encapsulate explosive materials primarily in airbag systems and seatbelt pretensioners, while its second strategic growth area, Aerospace &amp; Defense, supplies products used in civil and military aviation, satellite programs, anti-missile systems, and selected types of ammunition.</li><li>The group employs about 550 people across four production sites in Germany, Austria, and Thailand, serving more than 250 customers worldwide with everything from small-batch niche parts to high-volume series products.</li></ul>

Electrovac AG is a German-Austrian industrial manufacturer, founded in 1947 and headquartered in Salzweg, Germany, that develops, produces, and sells hermetically sealed housings, glass-to-metal seals, and ceramic-to-metal seal components for demanding technical applications.Its core business, Personal Safety, uses these products to encapsulate explosive materials primarily in airbag systems and seatbelt pretensioners, while its second strategic growth area, Aerospace &amp; Defense, supplies products used in civil and military aviation, satellite programs, anti-missile systems, and selected types of ammunition.The group employs about 550 people across four production sites in Germany, Austria, and Thailand, serving more than 250 customers worldwide with everything from small-batch niche parts to high-volume series products.

Index Rebalance and Special Situations Coverage, Quiddity Advisors

Anjana Amarasuriya

Index Rebalance and Special Situations Coverage

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The SP 500 index tracks the 500 largest US-listed names and is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.</li>
<li>An M&amp;A deal and a spinoff are both closing soon.  The M&amp;A will trigger an intra-review SP 500 ADD. The spinoff will trigger a SP 600 DEL.</li>
<li>We expect two changes during the regular June 2026 rebalance and two more intra-review index changes after the regular rebalance is announced.</li>
</ul>


The SP 500 index tracks the 500 largest US-listed names and is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
An M&amp;A deal and a spinoff are both closing soon.  The M&amp;A will trigger an intra-review SP 500 ADD. The spinoff will trigger a SP 600 DEL.
We expect two changes during the regular June 2026 rebalance and two more intra-review index changes after the regular rebalance is announced.


Quiddity Leaderboard SP500/600 Jun26 Rebal: One Intra-Review ADD Imminent as M&A Deal Nears Close

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Back on the 24th October, Ray Zage (director) and James Lu (chairman), collectively holding ~60% in <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grindr-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:37106:1" rel="noopener">Grindr (GRND US)</a></strong>, proposed to take the company private in a US$3.5bn deal.</li>
<li>The non-binding cash Offer of $18/share, is a 51% premium to undisturbed. A condition to a firm Offer <em>may</em> incorporate a majority of minority vote.</li>
<li>While the Special Committee considers the proposal, James Lu has unusually opted to step down. Currently trading at a ~30% gross spread to indicative terms. </li>
</ul>


Back on the 24th October, Ray Zage (director) and James Lu (chairman), collectively holding ~60% in Grindr (GRND US), proposed to take the company private in a US$3.5bn deal.
The non-binding cash Offer of $18/share, is a 51% premium to undisturbed. A condition to a firm Offer may incorporate a majority of minority vote.
While the Special Committee considers the proposal, James Lu has unusually opted to step down. Currently trading at a ~30% gross spread to indicative terms. 


Grindr (GRND US)'s Wide Spread As Majority Owners Court Delisting

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Equity Capital Markets

Milian Technology / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Milian Technology, a fast-growing marriage and dating platform in China, filed for an IPO in Hong Kong. The company has achieved significant traction with now ~10M avg. MAUs.</li>
<li>Milian Technology has raised ~US$77M in equity financing to date from investors, including Xiaomi, XVC Fund, Shunwei Capital, and Sky9 Capital, among others.</li>
<li>I believe Milian Technology’s growth is exceptionally high for any online social networking platform company in China at such scale.</li>
</ul>


Milian Technology, a fast-growing marriage and dating platform in China, filed for an IPO in Hong Kong. The company has achieved significant traction with now ~10M avg. MAUs.
Milian Technology has raised ~US$77M in equity financing to date from investors, including Xiaomi, XVC Fund, Shunwei Capital, and Sky9 Capital, among others.
I believe Milian Technology’s growth is exceptionally high for any online social networking platform company in China at such scale.


Milian Technology IPO Preview: Driving Profitable Expansion Through Yidui and Tietie Apps

United States

Bumble Inc. develops application software. The Company offers an online dating application that enables users to meet new people for dating, friendship, and relationship. Bumble serves customers worldwide.

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Bumble (BMBL US)

TMT Daily - EVs, CATL, AMD V NVDA, Samsung V TSM Tokyo Electron, ASML, Telco, Shopify, Match, Bumble

CATL cuts as lithium falls below cash cost as EVs slump. AMD traction in inference v Nvidia. Samsung woes at both 4nm and 2nm, TSM widens lead....

Neil Campling

Monday Delight: 27/07/2026

Electrovac AG is a German-Austrian industrial manufacturer, founded in 1947 and headquartered in Salzweg, Germany, that develops, produces, and...

Contrarian Cashflows

Quiddity Leaderboard SP500/600 Jun26 Rebal: One Intra-Review ADD Imminent as M&A Deal Nears Close

We expect 1 spinoff change to SP500/600 imminently, one M&A change to SP500, then two changes in the June 2026 rebalance. There could be two other...

Anjana Amarasuriya

Grindr (GRND US)'s Wide Spread As Majority Owners Court Delisting

I'd be picking up shares here. Zage and Lu, having sourced financing, suggests they're serious. Expect the Committee to make a decision before...

David Blennerhassett

Milian Technology IPO Preview: Driving Profitable Expansion Through Yidui and Tietie Apps

Beijing-based Milian Technology, a fast-growing marriage and dating platform, filed to go public in Hong Kong. I have a positive view of upcoming...

Andrei Zakharov

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

TMT Daily - EVs, CATL, AMD V NVDA, Samsung V TSM Tokyo Electron, ASML, Telco, Shopify, Match, Bumble

​CATL cuts as lithium falls below cash cost as EVs slump. AMD traction in inference v Nvidia. Samsung woes at both 4nm and 2nm, TSM widens lead....

Neil Campling

Monday Delight: 27/07/2026

Electrovac AG is a German-Austrian industrial manufacturer, founded in 1947 and headquartered in Salzweg, Germany, that develops, produces, and...

Contrarian Cashflows

Quiddity Leaderboard SP500/600 Jun26 Rebal: One Intra-Review ADD Imminent as M&A Deal Nears Close

We expect 1 spinoff change to SP500/600 imminently, one M&A change to SP500, then two changes in the June 2026 rebalance. There could be two other...

Anjana Amarasuriya

Grindr (GRND US)'s Wide Spread As Majority Owners Court Delisting

I'd be picking up shares here. Zage and Lu, having sourced financing, suggests they're serious. Expect the Committee to make a decision before...

David Blennerhassett

Milian Technology IPO Preview: Driving Profitable Expansion Through Yidui and Tietie Apps

​Beijing-based Milian Technology, a fast-growing marriage and dating platform, filed to go public in Hong Kong. I have a positive view of upcoming...

Andrei Zakharov

CATL cuts as lithium falls below cash cost as EVs slump. AMD traction in inference v Nvidia. Samsung woes at both 4nm and 2nm, TSM widens lead....

Beijing-based Milian Technology, a fast-growing marriage and dating platform, filed to go public in Hong Kong. I have a positive view of upcoming...