TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Match guided down 3Q22 revenues by 10% and EBITDA by 17% and telegraphed continued issues in 4Q, before returning to growth in 2023. </li>
<li>Long list: Tinder mis-execution , Hyperconnect's failure, ongoing reopening issues in Japan, and a tsunami of FX headwinds.  </li>
<li>New CEO Bernard Kim's mobile gaming monetization background informed many of the strategic pivots: exiting investments in virtual currency and metaverse as not realistic.</li>
</ul>


Match guided down 3Q22 revenues by 10% and EBITDA by 17% and telegraphed continued issues in 4Q, before returning to growth in 2023. 
Long list: Tinder mis-execution , Hyperconnect's failure, ongoing reopening issues in Japan, and a tsunami of FX headwinds.  
New CEO Bernard Kim's mobile gaming monetization background informed many of the strategic pivots: exiting investments in virtual currency and metaverse as not realistic.


Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>This is our first report on the online dating giant, Bumble.</li><li>The company had a decent start to 2022 with lucrative revenue growth and a total group revenue that was driven by a continuous strength in the Bumble app.</li><li>The company continued its acquisition-led geopgraphic expansion and acquired famous Gen Z dating app, Fruitz to expand into Europe.</li></ul>

This is our first report on the online dating giant, Bumble.The company had a decent start to 2022 with lucrative revenue growth and a total group revenue that was driven by a continuous strength in the Bumble app.The company continued its acquisition-led geopgraphic expansion and acquired famous Gen Z dating app, Fruitz to expand into Europe.

Bumble Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Application Portfolio

Credit

<ul><li>Bumble is the second-largest player in the online dating market, right behind Match Group.</li><li>The company had a decent start to 2022 with lucrative revenue growth and a total group revenue that was driven by a continuous strength in the Bumble app.</li><li>The management continued its acquisition-led geopgraphic expansion and acquired famous Gen Z dating app, Fruitz to expand into Europe.</li></ul>

Bumble is the second-largest player in the online dating market, right behind Match Group.The company had a decent start to 2022 with lucrative revenue growth and a total group revenue that was driven by a continuous strength in the Bumble app.The management continued its acquisition-led geopgraphic expansion and acquired famous Gen Z dating app, Fruitz to expand into Europe.

Bumble Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report

<ul>
<li>Match is down 52% over the past 6 months and at $71, Match trades at a 5% FCF yield, ~17x Fwd EBITDA, for ~20% growth / ~35% EBITDA margin</li>
<li>Covid restrictions lifted in Japan (2nd biggest market) should be tailwind for 2H22</li>
<li>New CEO from Zynga brings unique mobile monetization skillset ideally suited for coming Tinder Coins summer launch.</li>
</ul>


Match is down 52% over the past 6 months and at $71, Match trades at a 5% FCF yield, ~17x Fwd EBITDA, for ~20% growth / ~35% EBITDA margin
Covid restrictions lifted in Japan (2nd biggest market) should be tailwind for 2H22
New CEO from Zynga brings unique mobile monetization skillset ideally suited for coming Tinder Coins summer launch.


Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<p>While the battle for payment systems between Epic and Apple will continue with Epic filing an appeal, the rather mild ruling against Apple has some interesting implications, as do the responses of both companies to the ruling. In the context of regulatory upheaval in the key gaming space in China and a slew of regulatory moves in other Asian countries such as Japan and South Korea, there is plenty worth mulling as new winners and losers could emerge.</p>

While the battle for payment systems between Epic and Apple will continue with Epic filing an appeal, the rather mild ruling against Apple has some interesting implications, as do the responses of both companies to the ruling. In the context of regulatory upheaval in the key gaming space in China and a slew of regulatory moves in other Asian countries such as Japan and South Korea, there is plenty worth mulling as new winners and losers could emerge.

United States

Bumble Inc. develops application software. The Company offers an online dating application that enables users to meet new people for dating, friendship, and relationship. Bumble serves customers worldwide.

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Bumble (BMBL US)

Match Group: Going Down in Flames?

Match is intriguing but patience required. Ultimately a highly profitable (35% margin) platform with a quasi-monopolist position in a secular...

Aaron Gabin

Bumble Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Application Portfolio

This is our first report on the online dating giant, Bumble. The company had a decent start to 2022 with lucrative revenue growth and a total...

Baptista Research

Bumble Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report

Bumble is the second-largest player in the online dating market, right behind Match Group. The company had a decent start to 2022 with lucrative...

Baptista Research

Revisiting Long Ideas: Match Group

We think Match Group offers an attractive entry point. Always highly valued, but it’s a highly profitable (35% EBITDA margins) platform with a...

Aaron Gabin

Not an Epic Ruling Against Apple

We examine developments in Epic's legal battle with Apple to identify potential long-term implications and winners and losers.

Mio Kato

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