Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

Bumrungrad Hospital Pub Co / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>1Q25 core profit was in line with expectations, and the 2Q25E core performance is expected to remain weak YoY due to the high base from Middle Eastern patients.</li><li>However, a recovery is anticipated in 2H25E.</li><li>We maintain a Neutral rating with a fair value of Bt175.00, based on a required return of 5.6%.</li></ul>

1Q25 core profit was in line with expectations, and the 2Q25E core performance is expected to remain weak YoY due to the high base from Middle Eastern patients.However, a recovery is anticipated in 2H25E.We maintain a Neutral rating with a fair value of Bt175.00, based on a required return of 5.6%.

Bumrungrad Hospital - 1Q25 Earnings Contracted as Expected

<ul><li>Core profit for 1Q25E is expected to remain weak, declining YoY and QoQ due to a continued drop in Middle Eastern patients and the impact of the Ramadan holy period.</li><li>We maintain a Neutral rating but revise down the fair value to Bt175.00, based on a required return of 5.6%, reflecting adjustments to our macroeconomic assumptions: Rf = 2.07%, MRP = 5.58% (previously Bt237.00, 4.1%, 2.27%, and 4.43%, respectively).</li><li>The valuation metrics have turned more negative relative to the fundamentals.</li></ul>

Core profit for 1Q25E is expected to remain weak, declining YoY and QoQ due to a continued drop in Middle Eastern patients and the impact of the Ramadan holy period.We maintain a Neutral rating but revise down the fair value to Bt175.00, based on a required return of 5.6%, reflecting adjustments to our macroeconomic assumptions: Rf = 2.07%, MRP = 5.58% (previously Bt237.00, 4.1%, 2.27%, and 4.43%, respectively).The valuation metrics have turned more negative relative to the fundamentals.

BH TB - Expect Weak 1Q25E Core Profit Due to Lower Patients from the Middle East and Ramadan

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bumrungrad-hospital-pub-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:883:1" rel="noopener">Bumrungrad Hospital Pub Co (BH TB)</a> reported marginal revenue growth in 2024, with margins expanding on lower expenses. Revenue from international patients witnesses contraction, while domestic patient volumes provide traction.</li>
<li>Competition from peers like BDMS remains a concern in near term. With the entire Ramadan period falling in 1Q25, Bumrungrad’s international patient revenue is expected to remain muted in 1Q25.</li>
<li>The share prices of Bumrungrad are expected to remain under pressure with the commencement of operation at BIH Phuket being the only near-term trigger for the company.</li>
</ul>



Bumrungrad Hospital Pub Co (BH TB) reported marginal revenue growth in 2024, with margins expanding on lower expenses. Revenue from international patients witnesses contraction, while domestic patient volumes provide traction.
Competition from peers like BDMS remains a concern in near term. With the entire Ramadan period falling in 1Q25, Bumrungrad’s international patient revenue is expected to remain muted in 1Q25.
The share prices of Bumrungrad are expected to remain under pressure with the commencement of operation at BIH Phuket being the only near-term trigger for the company.


Bumrungrad Hospital (BH TB): Dwindling International Revenue on Competition; No Near-Term Respite

<ul><li>We maintain a Neutral rating but lower the fair value to Bt237.00, based on a required return of 4.1% (previously Bt246.00 and 3.9%).</li><li>We still hold a positive view on the fundamentals, as the market price implies upside of 29% to the fair value.</li><li>We maintain a negative view on the long-term growth, which is weaker than the industry, with 2024-26E core EPS CAGR expected at +1%. </li></ul>

We maintain a Neutral rating but lower the fair value to Bt237.00, based on a required return of 4.1% (previously Bt246.00 and 3.9%).We still hold a positive view on the fundamentals, as the market price implies upside of 29% to the fair value.We maintain a negative view on the long-term growth, which is weaker than the industry, with 2024-26E core EPS CAGR expected at +1%. 

Bumrungrad Hospital - Upbeat 4Q24 Earnings Due to Lower Tax Expenses...

<ul><li>4Q24E core profit is expected to have declined QoQ, with a continued decrease in 1Q25E both YoY and QoQ due to a reduction in Middle Eastern patients.</li><li>This is ascribed to a slowdown in Kuwait patient referrals, the redistribution of UAE patients, and the full recognition of the 30-day Ramadan period in 1Q25E (compared to 20 days in 1Q24).</li><li>Moreover, intense competition remains a challenge, leading to a long-term EPS CAGR of merely +2% for 2024- 26E, which is lower than the industry average of +7%.</li></ul>

4Q24E core profit is expected to have declined QoQ, with a continued decrease in 1Q25E both YoY and QoQ due to a reduction in Middle Eastern patients.This is ascribed to a slowdown in Kuwait patient referrals, the redistribution of UAE patients, and the full recognition of the 30-day Ramadan period in 1Q25E (compared to 20 days in 1Q24).Moreover, intense competition remains a challenge, leading to a long-term EPS CAGR of merely +2% for 2024- 26E, which is lower than the industry average of +7%.

BH TB- Expect Weak 4Q24E, with Continued Pressure in 1Q25E Due to Extended Ramadan Period

Thailand

Bumrungrad Hospital Public Company Limited, through its subsidiaries,  owns and operates the Bumrungrad Hospital. Located in Bangkok, the Hospital has capacity of international standard medical care with 554 beds for inpatients and approximately 125 clinic examination suites that can serve up to 3,000 outpatients daily.

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Bumrungrad Hospital Pub Co (BH TB)

Bumrungrad Hospital - 1Q25 Earnings Contracted as Expected

1Q25 core profit was in line with expectations, and the 2Q25E core performance is expected to remain weak YoY due to the high base from Middle...

Krungthai XSpring

BH TB - Expect Weak 1Q25E Core Profit Due to Lower Patients from the Middle East and Ramadan

Core profit for 1Q25E is expected to remain weak, declining YoY and QoQ due to a continued drop in Middle Eastern patients and the impact of the...

Krungthai XSpring

Bumrungrad Hospital (BH TB): Dwindling International Revenue on Competition; No Near-Term Respite

Bumrungrad Hospital sees marginal revenue growth in 2024, with international patient revenue declining. Share prices are expected to remain under...

Tina Banerjee

Bumrungrad Hospital - Upbeat 4Q24 Earnings Due to Lower Tax Expenses...

We maintain a Neutral rating but lower the fair value to Bt237.00, based on a required return of 4.1% (previously Bt246.00 and 3.9%).

Krungthai XSpring

BH TB- Expect Weak 4Q24E, with Continued Pressure in 1Q25E Due to Extended Ramadan Period

4Q24E core profit is expected to have declined QoQ, with a continued decrease in 1Q25E both YoY and QoQ due to a reduction in Middle Eastern patients.

Krungthai XSpring

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52-week Range

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Bumrungrad Hospital - 1Q25 Earnings Contracted as Expected

1Q25 core profit was in line with expectations, and the 2Q25E core performance is expected to remain weak YoY due to the high base from Middle...

Krungthai XSpring

BH TB - Expect Weak 1Q25E Core Profit Due to Lower Patients from the Middle East and Ramadan

Core profit for 1Q25E is expected to remain weak, declining YoY and QoQ due to a continued drop in Middle Eastern patients and the impact of the...

Krungthai XSpring

Bumrungrad Hospital (BH TB): Dwindling International Revenue on Competition; No Near-Term Respite

​Bumrungrad Hospital sees marginal revenue growth in 2024, with international patient revenue declining. Share prices are expected to remain under...

Tina Banerjee

Bumrungrad Hospital - Upbeat 4Q24 Earnings Due to Lower Tax Expenses...

We maintain a Neutral rating but lower the fair value to Bt237.00, based on a required return of 4.1% (previously Bt246.00 and 3.9%).

Krungthai XSpring

BH TB- Expect Weak 4Q24E, with Continued Pressure in 1Q25E Due to Extended Ramadan Period

4Q24E core profit is expected to have declined QoQ, with a continued decrease in 1Q25E both YoY and QoQ due to a reduction in Middle Eastern patients.

Krungthai XSpring

Bumrungrad Hospital sees marginal revenue growth in 2024, with international patient revenue declining. Share prices are expected to remain under...