External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>USDCAD’s push through resistance in the mid-1.36s at the start of the month set in motion a sustained rise in the USD to retest minor resistance at 1.3850, the peak from April.</li><li>A doublebottom (1.3440/45) interpretation of price action over the past couple of months would suggest that the USD’s rally is now more or less complete.</li><li>That is also reflected in very overbought intraday and daily (DMI, RSI) oscillator signals. Overbought/oversold conditions can prevail for an extended period so there is no guarantee of a CAD rebound at this point. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

USDCAD’s push through resistance in the mid-1.36s at the start of the month set in motion a sustained rise in the USD to retest minor resistance at 1.3850, the peak from April.A doublebottom (1.3440/45) interpretation of price action over the past couple of months would suggest that the USD’s rally is now more or less complete.That is also reflected in very overbought intraday and daily (DMI, RSI) oscillator signals. Overbought/oversold conditions can prevail for an extended period so there is no guarantee of a CAD rebound at this point. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>While the Bank of Canada’s 1/2 point rate cut Wednesday predictably left the CAD under pressure, the currency has outperformed many of its major currency peers on the week overall, suggesting broader USD strength as much as lower domestic interest rates account for USDCAD’s push to Thursday’s peak just under 1.3870.</li><li>The CAD has steadied today but scope for gains remains limited. Fundamental fair value sits at 1.3857 and the correlation screen highlights spreads as the primary influence on spot at the moment.</li><li>The CAD needs much lower US rates or a major sentiment shift on the USD if it is to improve significantly in the short run at least. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

While the Bank of Canada’s 1/2 point rate cut Wednesday predictably left the CAD under pressure, the currency has outperformed many of its major currency peers on the week overall, suggesting broader USD strength as much as lower domestic interest rates account for USDCAD’s push to Thursday’s peak just under 1.3870.The CAD has steadied today but scope for gains remains limited. Fundamental fair value sits at 1.3857 and the correlation screen highlights spreads as the primary influence on spot at the moment.The CAD needs much lower US rates or a major sentiment shift on the USD if it is to improve significantly in the short run at least. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CAD Weekly outlook – USDCAD Firm but Overbought

<ul><li>We are revising our forecasts for the major currencies along with updated economic forecasts (see tables on page 3 and here for the Forecast Update).</li><li>The weakness in the USD that we expected to develop over the second half of the year has not materialized.</li><li>Firm US economic data drove expectations that the Fed could deliver a little more tightening—and hold interest rates high for longer—allowing the USD to stay elevated.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We are revising our forecasts for the major currencies along with updated economic forecasts (see tables on page 3 and here for the Forecast Update).The weakness in the USD that we expected to develop over the second half of the year has not materialized.Firm US economic data drove expectations that the Fed could deliver a little more tightening—and hold interest rates high for longer—allowing the USD to stay elevated.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

<ul><li>US economic growth has shown exceptional resilience, with a strong payrolls report and other positive macroeconomic factors</li><li>Higher US yields may put pressure on dollar shorts and lead to a potential capitulation in those positions</li><li>Canadian dollar baskets may outperform in this environment, with higher US yields benefiting the CAD</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

US economic growth has shown exceptional resilience, with a strong payrolls report and other positive macroeconomic factorsHigher US yields may put pressure on dollar shorts and lead to a potential capitulation in those positionsCanadian dollar baskets may outperform in this environment, with higher US yields benefiting the CADThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global FX: It was hard enough in the first place

<ul><li>Market pricing suggests nearly a 50% chance of a 50 basis point cut by the Fed, leading to uncertainty in the market.</li><li>The direction of the Fed's policy is clear regardless of the cut amount, with aggressive easing likely to continue throughout the year.</li><li>Concerns about labor market weakness in Canada have prompted the Bank of Canada to shift its focus from inflation to potential weakening in economic activity.</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Market pricing suggests nearly a 50% chance of a 50 basis point cut by the Fed, leading to uncertainty in the market.The direction of the Fed's policy is clear regardless of the cut amount, with aggressive easing likely to continue throughout the year.Concerns about labor market weakness in Canada have prompted the Bank of Canada to shift its focus from inflation to potential weakening in economic activity.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global FX: Implications from FOMC and other G10 central banks

Canada

The Canadian dollar is the official currency of Canada. 

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CAD (USDCAD CURNCY)

CAD Technical Overview

USDCAD’s push through resistance in the mid-1.36s at the start of the month set in motion a sustained rise in the USD to retest minor resistance at...

Scotiabank

CAD Weekly outlook – USDCAD Firm but Overbought

While the Bank of Canada’s 1/2 point rate cut Wednesday predictably left the CAD under pressure, the currency has outperformed many of its major...

Scotiabank

FX Forecast Update—October 2023

We are revising our forecasts for the major currencies along with updated economic forecasts (see tables on page 3 and here for the Forecast Update).

Scotiabank

Global FX: It was hard enough in the first place

The US economy is experiencing strong growth, with blockbuster payrolls reports exceeding expectations, while markets grapple with interest rate...

At Any Rate

Global FX: Implications from FOMC and other G10 central banks

Market pricing and economist forecasts indicate a significant chance of a 50 basis point cut by the Fed, while Canada's labor market weakness is...

At Any Rate

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