External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

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External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>The latest CFTC futures positioning report captured investors’ sentiment as of May 6, the date of the Trump/Carney meeting and represented speculators’ bets ahead of the May 7 FOMC.</li><li>Overall, the w/w adjustments were remarkably small, with no major positioning changes across any of the reporting currencies leaving the aggregate net short USD position largely unchanged at $17.2bn.</li><li>The CAD net short remains the largest among the reporting currencies, at $5.1bn.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The latest CFTC futures positioning report captured investors’ sentiment as of May 6, the date of the Trump/Carney meeting and represented speculators’ bets ahead of the May 7 FOMC.Overall, the w/w adjustments were remarkably small, with no major positioning changes across any of the reporting currencies leaving the aggregate net short USD position largely unchanged at $17.2bn.The CAD net short remains the largest among the reporting currencies, at $5.1bn.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CFTC Weekly Sentiment Report - Speculators Made Few Changes Ahead of Last Week’s FOMC

<ul><li>The aggregate speculative bearish USD position has pushed deeper into negative territory, widening $3.1bn w/w to $17.0bn.</li><li>This week’s adjustments were relatively small overall, concentrated primarily in EUR with modest contributions from adjustments to MXN, NZD, and GBP as well.</li><li>The CAD and JPY positions were remarkably unchanged. The JPY position remains the largest held long against the USD, followed by EUR.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The aggregate speculative bearish USD position has pushed deeper into negative territory, widening $3.1bn w/w to $17.0bn.This week’s adjustments were relatively small overall, concentrated primarily in EUR with modest contributions from adjustments to MXN, NZD, and GBP as well.The CAD and JPY positions were remarkably unchanged. The JPY position remains the largest held long against the USD, followed by EUR.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CFTC Weekly Sentiment Report - USD Bear Bet Builds & Gold Long Tumbles

<ul><li>The aggregate speculative bearish USD position continued to build this week, widening nearly $4bn to a level just shy of $14bn.</li><li>GBP and CAD had the largest (improving) w/w swings and all of the reporting currencies saw positive w/w changes with the exception of EUR.</li><li>Digging deeper, we note the continued (albeit modest) build in Speculative Traders’ bearish positions. Real Money (institutional) remain, by far, the largest component of the bearish USD position.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The aggregate speculative bearish USD position continued to build this week, widening nearly $4bn to a level just shy of $14bn.GBP and CAD had the largest (improving) w/w swings and all of the reporting currencies saw positive w/w changes with the exception of EUR.Digging deeper, we note the continued (albeit modest) build in Speculative Traders’ bearish positions. Real Money (institutional) remain, by far, the largest component of the bearish USD position.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Bearish Aggregate USD Bet Continues To Build

<ul><li>USDCAD technical signals have felt a little redundant amid the uncertainty and volatility of the past couple of months.</li><li>With the benefit of hindsight, however, the sharp swings in spot in February and into early March did develop meaningful, bearish (weekly and monthly) reversal signals for the USD around spot’s brief push to near 1.48 (close to where previous USD spikes flamed out in 2016 and 2020).</li><li>USD losses have corrected more than 2/3 of the USD rally seen over the past few months, with spot consolidating a little above the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement (1.3744) over the past week. Note a broad band of congestion on the daily chart also sits between 1.3575/1.3775. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

USDCAD technical signals have felt a little redundant amid the uncertainty and volatility of the past couple of months.With the benefit of hindsight, however, the sharp swings in spot in February and into early March did develop meaningful, bearish (weekly and monthly) reversal signals for the USD around spot’s brief push to near 1.48 (close to where previous USD spikes flamed out in 2016 and 2020).USD losses have corrected more than 2/3 of the USD rally seen over the past few months, with spot consolidating a little above the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement (1.3744) over the past week. Note a broad band of congestion on the daily chart also sits between 1.3575/1.3775. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>We are revising our forecasts for the major currencies along with updated economic forecasts (see tables on page 3 and here for the Forecast Update).</li><li>The weakness in the USD that we expected to develop over the second half of the year has not materialized.</li><li>Firm US economic data drove expectations that the Fed could deliver a little more tightening—and hold interest rates high for longer—allowing the USD to stay elevated. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We are revising our forecasts for the major currencies along with updated economic forecasts (see tables on page 3 and here for the Forecast Update).The weakness in the USD that we expected to develop over the second half of the year has not materialized.Firm US economic data drove expectations that the Fed could deliver a little more tightening—and hold interest rates high for longer—allowing the USD to stay elevated. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Canada

The Canadian dollar is the official currency of Canada. 

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CAD (USDCAD CURNCY)

CFTC Weekly Sentiment Report - Speculators Made Few Changes Ahead of Last Week’s FOMC

The latest CFTC futures positioning report captured investors’ sentiment as of May 6, the date of the Trump/Carney meeting and represented...

Scotiabank

CFTC Weekly Sentiment Report - USD Bear Bet Builds & Gold Long Tumbles

This week’s adjustments were relatively small overall, concentrated primarily in EUR with modest contributions from adjustments to MXN, NZD, and...

Scotiabank

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Bearish Aggregate USD Bet Continues To Build

The aggregate speculative bearish USD position continued to build this week, widening nearly $4bn to a level just shy of $14bn.

Scotiabank

CAD Technical Overview

USD losses have corrected more than 2/3 of the USD rally seen over the past few months, with spot consolidating a little above the 76.4% Fibonacci...

Scotiabank

FX Forecast Update—October 2023

We are revising our forecasts for the major currencies along with updated economic forecasts (see tables on page 3 and here for the Forecast Update).

Scotiabank

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