FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

A lot is happening in global markets this week.  No doubt you are reading much about key central bank meetings in Japan and the UK, and key data releases including Euro GDP and CPI.  However, we have decided to hone in on the AUD, NZD and CAD which present there own opportunities in a market searching for fresh direction.  We see upside potential for CAD on recent solid economic reports, rising rates, and positive news developing on NAFTA vs. ongoing trade tensions between the US and China.  NZD appears more vulnerable and faces a key hurdle this week with NZ labour data released for Q2.

A lot is happening in global markets this week.  No doubt you are reading much about key central bank meetings in Japan and the UK, and key data releases including Euro GDP and CPI.  However, we have decided to hone in on the AUD, NZD and CAD which present there own opportunities in a market searching for fresh direction.  We see upside potential for CAD on recent solid economic reports, rising rates, and positive news developing on NAFTA vs. ongoing trade tensions between the US and China.  NZD appears more vulnerable and faces a key hurdle this week with NZ labour data released for Q2.

Major Commodity Currencies May Diverge – CAD Set to Shine

The market is on board for a hike this week but appears to have been lulled into thinking that’s it until next year.  However, the Bank of Canada has policy set still well below neutral, despite an economy and inflation largely on target and growth above trend.  More likely is that they come off their mini pause and step up the pace to what will still be described as gradual policy tightening by hiking several times over the year ahead.

The market is on board for a hike this week but appears to have been lulled into thinking that’s it until next year.  However, the Bank of Canada has policy set still well below neutral, despite an economy and inflation largely on target and growth above trend.  More likely is that they come off their mini pause and step up the pace to what will still be described as gradual policy tightening by hiking several times over the year ahead.

Recent news reports suggest that the Trump administration may be looking to cool its trade rhetoric towards Europe and NAFTA, while trade tensions with China remain high and may increase further.  European automaker share prices recovered significantly from beaten-down levels, while the Chinese share market and Asian equities more generally remain relatively weak.  This may tend to support the EUR and CAD while keeping Asian currencies under pressure.  The Bank of Canada appears set to proceed with its fourth hike this cycle next week and its labor report on Friday should remain upbeat.

Recent news reports suggest that the Trump administration may be looking to cool its trade rhetoric towards Europe and NAFTA, while trade tensions with China remain high and may increase further.  European automaker share prices recovered significantly from beaten-down levels, while the Chinese share market and Asian equities more generally remain relatively weak.  This may tend to support the EUR and CAD while keeping Asian currencies under pressure.  The Bank of Canada appears set to proceed with its fourth hike this cycle next week and its labor report on Friday should remain upbeat.

Shifting Trump Trade Rhetoric May Support EUR and CAD Against Asian Currencies

Multi-asset Macro/Emerging Markets Strategist

Virgil Fernandez Esguerra

We recommend going strategic long Canadian Dollar vs the Mexican Peso on greater BOC confidence over rate hikes and continued "AMLO-mentum":<ul>
<li>Bank of Canada (BOC) reveals greater confidence in 'hawkish hold'</li>
<li>AMLO is expanding his lead in Mexico's presidential elections</li>
<li>Positioning favours this trade if/as leveraged funds unwind CAD shorts, turn MXN short and real money unwind MXN longs</li>
<li>
US trade: This FX trade benefits from Nafta talks remaining in limbo. On a relative basis, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/24229" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24229:1">MXN (USDMXN CURNCY)</a> is…</li>
</ul>

We recommend going strategic long Canadian Dollar vs the Mexican Peso on greater BOC confidence over rate hikes and continued "AMLO-mentum":
Bank of Canada (BOC) reveals greater confidence in 'hawkish hold'
AMLO is expanding his lead in Mexico's presidential elections
Positioning favours this trade if/as leveraged funds unwind CAD shorts, turn MXN short and real money unwind MXN longs

US trade: This FX trade benefits from Nafta talks remaining in limbo. On a relative basis, MXN (USDMXN CURNCY) is…


Trade Idea: Northern Exposure - Strategic Long CAD-MXN

Individual country preliminary inflation data for May suggest that Eurozone headline and core measures will rebound more than expected.  Without the political upheaval in Italy, the data might signal a clearer path to exiting QE and support a sizeable recovery in EUR.  Political uncertainty eased somewhat on Tuesday and EUR has rebounded, but the situation remains fluid.  US economic reports were mixed with a downward revision in Q1 PCE inflation, and softer ADP employment.  However, the Beige Book pointed to somewhat more wage and inflation pressure.  The Bank of Canada suggested that a hike at its next meeting in July would be consistent with their gradual normalisation in rates policy, necessary with inflation on target and the economy operating near capacity.  They see risks from trade policy and global stresses, but not enough to derail plans to hike soon.

Individual country preliminary inflation data for May suggest that Eurozone headline and core measures will rebound more than expected.  Without the political upheaval in Italy, the data might signal a clearer path to exiting QE and support a sizeable recovery in EUR.  Political uncertainty eased somewhat on Tuesday and EUR has rebounded, but the situation remains fluid.  US economic reports were mixed with a downward revision in Q1 PCE inflation, and softer ADP employment.  However, the Beige Book pointed to somewhat more wage and inflation pressure.  The Bank of Canada suggested that a hike at its next meeting in July would be consistent with their gradual normalisation in rates policy, necessary with inflation on target and the economy operating near capacity.  They see risks from trade policy and global stresses, but not enough to derail plans to hike soon.

Euro Inflation, US Economy and Canada Rates Still on Track

Canada

The Canadian dollar is the official currency of Canada. 

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CAD (USDCAD CURNCY)

Major Commodity Currencies May Diverge – CAD Set to Shine

A lot is happening in global markets this week. No doubt you are reading much about key central bank meetings in Japan and the UK, and key data...

Greg Gibbs

Bank of Canada May Pick up the Pace

The market is on board for a hike this week but appears to have been lulled into thinking that’s it until next year. However, the Bank of Canada...

Greg Gibbs

Shifting Trump Trade Rhetoric May Support EUR and CAD Against Asian Currencies

Recent news reports suggest that the Trump administration may be looking to cool its trade rhetoric towards Europe and NAFTA, while trade tensions...

Greg Gibbs

Trade Idea: Northern Exposure - Strategic Long CAD-MXN

We recommend going strategic long Canadian Dollar vs the Mexican Peso on greater BOC confidence over rate hikes and continued "AMLO-mentum": Bank...

Virgil Fernandez Esguerra

Euro Inflation, US Economy and Canada Rates Still on Track

Individual country preliminary inflation data for May suggest that Eurozone headline and core measures will rebound more than expected. Without...

Greg Gibbs

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)