FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

The increased prospect of a Clinton victory in the USA election is allowing the market to start to look beyond the risk of policy and social upheaval in the USA.  The reduced risk of legal action against Clinton over her use of emails (following the latest FBI release) also improves the prospect for stability post-election. Global growth indicators have generally improved over recent months and commodity prices have continued to build on gains earlier in the year (with the exception of oil prices).  US employment data were stronger than expected, including higher wages growth.  This is supporting rising global bond yields from still very low levels.  As global bond yields rise, while they remain largely stagnant in Japan, the JPY is likely to weaken against most currencies.  We expect this trend to continue unless there is a surprise Trump victory.  We see scope for JPY to unwind a good deal of its significant gains this year.  The RBNZ are expected to cut rates this week, but they will do so reluctantly and are likely to move to a neutral bias, supporting the case for a stronger NZD/JPY.  AUD is pressing against resistance supported by resurgent coal and iron ore prices, but recent economic reports suggest domestic growth may be losing momentum.  CAD has significantly underperformed AUD and NZD, undermined by lower oil prices, dovish Bank of Canada statements, and fears over the US election. More stable oil prices and a solid Clinton victory may see CAD recover lost ground.

The increased prospect of a Clinton victory in the USA election is allowing the market to start to look beyond the risk of policy and social upheaval in the USA.  The reduced risk of legal action against Clinton over her use of emails (following the latest FBI release) also improves the prospect for stability post-election. Global growth indicators have generally improved over recent months and commodity prices have continued to build on gains earlier in the year (with the exception of oil prices).  US employment data were stronger than expected, including higher wages growth.  This is supporting rising global bond yields from still very low levels.  As global bond yields rise, while they remain largely stagnant in Japan, the JPY is likely to weaken against most currencies.  We expect this trend to continue unless there is a surprise Trump victory.  We see scope for JPY to unwind a good deal of its significant gains this year.  The RBNZ are expected to cut rates this week, but they will do so reluctantly and are likely to move to a neutral bias, supporting the case for a stronger NZD/JPY.  AUD is pressing against resistance supported by resurgent coal and iron ore prices, but recent economic reports suggest domestic growth may be losing momentum.  CAD has significantly underperformed AUD and NZD, undermined by lower oil prices, dovish Bank of Canada statements, and fears over the US election. More stable oil prices and a solid Clinton victory may see CAD recover lost ground.

JPY Has Scope to Fall Further on Rising Global Inflation Indicators

Looking over the map, recent USD gains are less about renewed strength in the US economy and more about weaker trends in JPY, GBP and EUR spilling over to several emerging markets through direct links to their currencies or via currency basket regimes.  Commodity currencies and some emerging market currencies that are less influenced by these weaker major currencies, with more stable political environments, have performed solidly against the USD. We may continue to see weakness in non-dollar major currencies, provided the US economy and rates outlook remains stable. And we may see more spillover to some EM currencies in coming weeks.  Both EUR and JPY appear to be developing more sustained weaker trends and they may have some way to unwind excess gains in the first half of the year as vicious cycles turn to virtuous ones (related to rising global bond yields).  In essence, their currencies may weaken in response to their negative interest rates, improving inflation expectations, and a sense that their easy monetary policies are succeeding in holding down real yields. This may tend to perpetuate the recent trend towards a weaker EUR and JPY and relatively strong, if not outright strength, in commodity currencies. However, higher global bond yields may also tend to undermine currencies that have relied on flows into their bond market from investors seeking higher yield in an, until recent weeks, diminishing global yield environment.

Looking over the map, recent USD gains are less about renewed strength in the US economy and more about weaker trends in JPY, GBP and EUR spilling over to several emerging markets through direct links to their currencies or via currency basket regimes.  Commodity currencies and some emerging market currencies that are less influenced by these weaker major currencies, with more stable political environments, have performed solidly against the USD. We may continue to see weakness in non-dollar major currencies, provided the US economy and rates outlook remains stable. And we may see more spillover to some EM currencies in coming weeks.  Both EUR and JPY appear to be developing more sustained weaker trends and they may have some way to unwind excess gains in the first half of the year as vicious cycles turn to virtuous ones (related to rising global bond yields).  In essence, their currencies may weaken in response to their negative interest rates, improving inflation expectations, and a sense that their easy monetary policies are succeeding in holding down real yields. This may tend to perpetuate the recent trend towards a weaker EUR and JPY and relatively strong, if not outright strength, in commodity currencies. However, higher global bond yields may also tend to undermine currencies that have relied on flows into their bond market from investors seeking higher yield in an, until recent weeks, diminishing global yield environment. 

Weaker EUR & JPY, Stronger Commodity Currencies

Australian commodity prices continue to rise with further gains in coal and iron ore prices this week, despite news that the Chinese government is moving to contain credit growth and its housing market.  The medium-term outlook remains unclear, but taking commodity price moves at face value suggests the AUD should perform relatively well.  Rising global bond yields and a stronger USD (mainly reflecting weakness in JPY, GBP, and more recently the EUR) and mixed EM markets may tend to cap the AUD against the USD, but it likely to outperform other currencies.  AUD/NZD is approaching technical resistance, but still has further upside potential.

Australian commodity prices continue to rise with further gains in coal and iron ore prices this week, despite news that the Chinese government is moving to contain credit growth and its housing market.  The medium-term outlook remains unclear, but taking commodity price moves at face value suggests the AUD should perform relatively well.  Rising global bond yields and a stronger USD (mainly reflecting weakness in JPY, GBP, and more recently the EUR) and mixed EM markets may tend to cap the AUD against the USD, but it likely to outperform other currencies.  AUD/NZD is approaching technical resistance, but still has further upside potential.

Relative commodity price trends (stronger energy and weaker dairy) help account for some of the recent recovery in the AUD/NZD.  Further supporting the recovery is the rise in global bond yields, tending to remove some of the additional demand for NZD generated by a global investor pre-occupation in a ‘search for yield’.  There may be more upside for the AUD/NZD, but revisiting the fair-value models we introduced in August, suggests that it is not far from fair-value.  Instead, we look at CAD/NZD.  As a more pure energy play, CAD has an advantage of the AUD that may be dragged down by weaker steel prices in China since August.  Furthermore, CAD is a much lower yielder than NZD or AUD, and thus is unlikely to need to reverse earlier gains related to a ‘search for yield’ as global bond yields rise.  Our regression analysis suggests that NZD/CAD has not yet fallen by enough to account for either the diversion in oil from milk, or the rise in global bond yields.  Furthermore, recent macroprudential measures in New Zealand appear to be working to slow its housing market and the RBNZ is likely, in our view, to proceed with a rate cut in November.  The Canadian economy has been mixed lately, but fiscal expansion is likely to be felt more as the year progresses and recent data in the USA is somewhat more positive, suggesting potential upside revisions for the USA and Canadian economic outlooks.

Relative commodity price trends (stronger energy and weaker dairy) help account for some of the recent recovery in the AUD/NZD.  Further supporting the recovery is the rise in global bond yields, tending to remove some of the additional demand for NZD generated by a global investor pre-occupation in a ‘search for yield’.  There may be more upside for the AUD/NZD, but revisiting the fair-value models we introduced in August, suggests that it is not far from fair-value.  Instead, we look at CAD/NZD.  As a more pure energy play, CAD has an advantage of the AUD that may be dragged down by weaker steel prices in China since August.  Furthermore, CAD is a much lower yielder than NZD or AUD, and thus is unlikely to need to reverse earlier gains related to a ‘search for yield’ as global bond yields rise.  Our regression analysis suggests that NZD/CAD has not yet fallen by enough to account for either the diversion in oil from milk, or the rise in global bond yields.  Furthermore, recent macroprudential measures in New Zealand appear to be working to slow its housing market and the RBNZ is likely, in our view, to proceed with a rate cut in November.  The Canadian economy has been mixed lately, but fiscal expansion is likely to be felt more as the year progresses and recent data in the USA is somewhat more positive, suggesting potential upside revisions for the USA and Canadian economic outlooks.

Currency markets have been mixed, choppy and in most cases exhibiting no trend over recent months. There are few clear opportunities and a number of risks to consider.  Two key data points this week in the USA include PCE inflation and durable goods orders. The Fed has forecast a subdued outlook for inflation, but it is not far below target, and the CPI measure is trending higher and above target.  Capital investment has been weak, but there has been a lift-off in orders in the two months to July, it will be important to see if this can build further.  However, recent broad activity indicators have been weak.  The forecast for a more gradual and shallow hiking path by the Fed helped lift some EM and commodity currencies last week. The BoJ policy meeting also contributed to a drop in long term yields back into their previous range, contributing to a rebound in equities and gold.  EM bonds and equities led the rebound in riskier assets and may continue to attract demand unless the low global rates view at the Fed is questioned.  Brexit and banking sector concerns may weigh on the GBP and EUR.  CAD looks a bit expensive relative to rates and oil prices.  A number of key events this week may set the tone for CAD; including a speech by Poloz, USA presidential debate, OPEC talks, and GDP data.

Currency markets have been mixed, choppy and in most cases exhibiting no trend over recent months. There are few clear opportunities and a number of risks to consider.  Two key data points this week in the USA include PCE inflation and durable goods orders. The Fed has forecast a subdued outlook for inflation, but it is not far below target, and the CPI measure is trending higher and above target.  Capital investment has been weak, but there has been a lift-off in orders in the two months to July, it will be important to see if this can build further.  However, recent broad activity indicators have been weak.  The forecast for a more gradual and shallow hiking path by the Fed helped lift some EM and commodity currencies last week. The BoJ policy meeting also contributed to a drop in long term yields back into their previous range, contributing to a rebound in equities and gold.  EM bonds and equities led the rebound in riskier assets and may continue to attract demand unless the low global rates view at the Fed is questioned.  Brexit and banking sector concerns may weigh on the GBP and EUR.  CAD looks a bit expensive relative to rates and oil prices.  A number of key events this week may set the tone for CAD; including a speech by Poloz, USA presidential debate, OPEC talks, and GDP data.

AmpGFX - Tough Currency Markets Await Key Events

Canada

The Canadian dollar is the official currency of Canada. 

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CAD (USDCAD CURNCY)

JPY Has Scope to Fall Further on Rising Global Inflation Indicators

The increased prospect of a Clinton victory in the USA election is allowing the market to start to look beyond the risk of policy and social...

Greg Gibbs

Weaker EUR & JPY, Stronger Commodity Currencies

Looking over the map, recent USD gains are less about renewed strength in the US economy and more about weaker trends in JPY, GBP and EUR spilling...

Greg Gibbs

AUD Receiving Commodity Support

Australian commodity prices continue to rise with further gains in coal and iron ore prices this week, despite news that the Chinese government is...

Greg Gibbs

Downside Potential in NZD Vs. CAD

Relative commodity price trends (stronger energy and weaker dairy) help account for some of the recent recovery in the AUD/NZD. Further supporting...

Greg Gibbs

AmpGFX - Tough Currency Markets Await Key Events

Currency markets have been mixed, choppy and in most cases exhibiting no trend over recent months. There are few clear opportunities and a number...

Greg Gibbs

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