Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions, Bixmoor

Bixmoor

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions

Bixmoor specialises in providing bespoke research to business, governments and the financial community on China and neighbouring regions. We seek to build long-term relationships with our clients, based on our expertise, our reliability and our determination to find the right solution.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

High debt burdens are not just a developing world phenomenon. The growth of Quantitative Easing programs has resulted in significantly increased debt in many countries, including a good number in the European Union, whose debt levels are masked by accounting procedures.

High debt burdens are not just a developing world phenomenon. The growth of Quantitative Easing programs has resulted in significantly increased debt in many countries, including a good number in the European Union, whose debt levels are masked by accounting procedures.

The Potential for National Financial Default

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

In DBS’s year 2014 annual report it defines market risk on page 90 as follows: “Market risk is the risk is the risk of loss arising from adverse changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, equity prices, credit spreads and commodity prices, as well as their correlations and implied volatilities.” <figure class="editor-figure"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/004/663/original/Market%20Risk.png?1450243661" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="4663"><figcaption class="figcaption">Source: DBS 2014 Annual Report p90</figcaption></figure>In the bank’s 2012 annual report the definition on page 81 was slightly different: “Market risk affects the economic values of financial instruments held by the…

In DBS’s year 2014 annual report it defines market risk on page 90 as follows: “Market risk is the risk is the risk of loss arising from adverse changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, equity prices, credit spreads and commodity prices, as well as their correlations and implied volatilities.” Source: DBS 2014 Annual Report p90In the bank’s 2012 annual report the definition on page 81 was slightly different: “Market risk affects the economic values of financial instruments held by the…

With Radically Lower Oil Prices, Market Risk Assets Is a Focus

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 24 May, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/banco-bilbao-vizcaya-argentari" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21251:1" rel="noopener">Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentari (BBVA SM)</a> submitted the authorisation request for its all-stock offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/banco-de-sabadell-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21295:1" rel="noopener">Banco De Sabadell SA (SAB SM)</a>. Closing expected to take 6-8 months.</li>
<li>Gross spread (CSP 27 May) is 7.6%, which This translates in a 52% implied probability of deal success. The fixed income market appears to share this view.</li>
<li>Nevertheless, from a long-only perspective, the risk/reward of Sabadell is interesting. The deal values Sabadell's shares at €2.07 each, an implied equity value of €11,187 million, for a 0.92 P/TBV.</li>
</ul>


On 24 May, Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentari (BBVA SM) submitted the authorisation request for its all-stock offer for Banco De Sabadell SA (SAB SM). Closing expected to take 6-8 months.
Gross spread (CSP 27 May) is 7.6%, which This translates in a 52% implied probability of deal success. The fixed income market appears to share this view.
Nevertheless, from a long-only perspective, the risk/reward of Sabadell is interesting. The deal values Sabadell's shares at €2.07 each, an implied equity value of €11,187 million, for a 0.92 P/TBV.


BBVA Files Hostile Offer: Conditions, Defences and Probabilities

<ul>
<li>Press reports that CriteriaCaixa and TAQA will launch their takeover bid for Naturgy at €27/share imminently, with conversations between CriteriaCaixa and TAQA on the distribution of control practically finished. </li>
<li>The offer will target approximately 54% of the share capital of Naturgy. TAQA must go through an exhaustive permit request process due to the highly regulated businesses of Naturgy.</li>
<li>The shares look fairly priced vs. comparables. At the closing share price of 22 May of €24.92/share, I would be long Naturgy (gross spread to hypothetical offer is 7.7%).</li>
</ul>


Press reports that CriteriaCaixa and TAQA will launch their takeover bid for Naturgy at €27/share imminently, with conversations between CriteriaCaixa and TAQA on the distribution of control practically finished. 
The offer will target approximately 54% of the share capital of Naturgy. TAQA must go through an exhaustive permit request process due to the highly regulated businesses of Naturgy.
The shares look fairly priced vs. comparables. At the closing share price of 22 May of €24.92/share, I would be long Naturgy (gross spread to hypothetical offer is 7.7%).


Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Among EM banks, our top picks are Sberbank in Russia, Banco do Brasil and HDFC Bank in India; we are negative on recent IPO Nubank due to inflated market expectations</li>
<li>Our top picks for 2022 are BBVA and Banco BPM for Southern Europe banks. In Exchanges, we are positive on B3 of Brazil and SGX</li>
<li>In payments, we like Mastercard and Pagseguro, but we are negative on Paytm; we see BTG Pactual as an attractive pick and winner in the digital wealth managers and brokers</li>
</ul>


Among EM banks, our top picks are Sberbank in Russia, Banco do Brasil and HDFC Bank in India; we are negative on recent IPO Nubank due to inflated market expectations
Our top picks for 2022 are BBVA and Banco BPM for Southern Europe banks. In Exchanges, we are positive on B3 of Brazil and SGX
In payments, we like Mastercard and Pagseguro, but we are negative on Paytm; we see BTG Pactual as an attractive pick and winner in the digital wealth managers and brokers


2022 High Conviction Ideas in FinTech & Financials

Spain

CaixaBank accepts deposits and offers banking services.  The bank offers portfolio management services, insurance, investment strategy advice, international banking services, and other specialist financial services.

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CaixaBank SA (CABK SM)

The Potential for National Financial Default

High debt burdens are not just a developing world phenomenon. The growth of Quantitative Easing programs has resulted in significantly increased...

Bixmoor

With Radically Lower Oil Prices, Market Risk Assets Is a Focus

In DBS’s year 2014 annual report it defines market risk on page 90 as follows: “Market risk is the risk is the risk of loss arising from adverse...

Daniel Tabbush

BBVA Files Hostile Offer: Conditions, Defences and Probabilities

BBVA submits authorization request for all-stock offer for Sabadell, with deal expected to close in 6-8 months. Gross spread indicates 52%...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

TAQA & Criteria/Naturgy: Imminent Offer

Press reports indicate that CriteriaCaixa and TAQA will imminently launch a takeover bid for Naturgy at €27 per share, with their discussions on...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

2022 High Conviction Ideas in FinTech & Financials

Our 2022 high conviction ideas include buys on Sberbank, Banco do Brasil and HDFC Bank, as well as BBVA, Banco BPM, B3, SGX, Mastercard and...

Victor Galliano

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

The Potential for National Financial Default

High debt burdens are not just a developing world phenomenon. The growth of Quantitative Easing programs has resulted in significantly increased...

Bixmoor

With Radically Lower Oil Prices, Market Risk Assets Is a Focus

In DBS’s year 2014 annual report it defines market risk on page 90 as follows: “Market risk is the risk is the risk of loss arising from adverse...

Daniel Tabbush

BBVA Files Hostile Offer: Conditions, Defences and Probabilities

​BBVA submits authorization request for all-stock offer for Sabadell, with deal expected to close in 6-8 months. Gross spread indicates 52%...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

TAQA & Criteria/Naturgy: Imminent Offer

Press reports indicate that CriteriaCaixa and TAQA will imminently launch a takeover bid for Naturgy at €27 per share, with their discussions on...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

2022 High Conviction Ideas in FinTech & Financials

Our 2022 high conviction ideas include buys on Sberbank, Banco do Brasil and HDFC Bank, as well as BBVA, Banco BPM, B3, SGX, Mastercard and...

Victor Galliano

BBVA submits authorization request for all-stock offer for Sabadell, with deal expected to close in 6-8 months. Gross spread indicates 52%...