Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The bullish outlook for global equities (MSCI ACWI) that we initiated in early November 2023 remains intact; continue to ride this trend higher.</li>
<li>Many of the heavily-weighted countries in terms of global market capitalization (U.S., Europe, Japan) are extended; we'd welcome some consolidation, though it may come from higher levels.</li>
<li>Ultimately, market dynamics remain healthy, and we would treat pullbacks as buying opportunities. Downgrading India to market weight. Actionable Themes: Global Materials, Energy, Consumer Discretionary, and Industrials</li>
</ul>


The bullish outlook for global equities (MSCI ACWI) that we initiated in early November 2023 remains intact; continue to ride this trend higher.
Many of the heavily-weighted countries in terms of global market capitalization (U.S., Europe, Japan) are extended; we'd welcome some consolidation, though it may come from higher levels.
Ultimately, market dynamics remain healthy, and we would treat pullbacks as buying opportunities. Downgrading India to market weight. Actionable Themes: Global Materials, Energy, Consumer Discretionary, and Industrials


Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading India; Buys in Materials, Energy, Discretionary, Industrials

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our two previous Int'l Compass reports (Aug. 18 &amp; 24) we discussed that we were buyers on the pullback to the major $93 support level on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).</li>
<li>$93 on ACWI is 1+ year base support and a level that coincides with the 10-month uptrend. We remain bullish as long as the ACWI-US is above $93.</li>
<li>$93 on ACWI-US is likely the low for this pullback as long as the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY can stay below respective resistance levels (4.3%-4.35% and $103.70-$105.70).</li>
</ul>


In our two previous Int'l Compass reports (Aug. 18 &amp; 24) we discussed that we were buyers on the pullback to the major $93 support level on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).
$93 on ACWI is 1+ year base support and a level that coincides with the 10-month uptrend. We remain bullish as long as the ACWI-US is above $93.
$93 on ACWI-US is likely the low for this pullback as long as the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY can stay below respective resistance levels (4.3%-4.35% and $103.70-$105.70).


Further Declines in DXY, Sovereign Yields May Provide More Fuel for a Rally in Global Equities

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>EQT would probably jump higher and Bain would come out above that. Both would aim high to get it done and not lose the asset. Stay long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakaku-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7408:1" rel="noopener">Kakaku.com (2371 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>As <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/austal-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14420:1" rel="noopener">Austal Ltd (ASB AU)</a> books losses in response to contractual relief delays (or cancellation altogether[?]), Hanwha steps in with a fair offer for Austal's US unit.</li>
<li>The NAV discount has narrowed, and the implied stub is elevated, but at 0.34x forward P/B, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-limited-class-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific (19 HK)</a> is still a buy.</li>
</ul>


EQT would probably jump higher and Bain would come out above that. Both would aim high to get it done and not lose the asset. Stay long Kakaku.com (2371 JP).
As Austal Ltd (ASB AU) books losses in response to contractual relief delays (or cancellation altogether[?]), Hanwha steps in with a fair offer for Austal's US unit.
The NAV discount has narrowed, and the implied stub is elevated, but at 0.34x forward P/B, Swire Pacific (19 HK) is still a buy.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Kakaku.com, Austal, Swire Pacific, Ajinomoto Malaysia

<ul>
<li>Australia's ASIC releases the aggregated short position data four business days after the reporting day. Data in this insight is up to 3rd August, published on the 7th August.
</li>
<li>The largest industry net increase in the past week was A$0.1bn into "Metals"; the largest industry net decrease was A$0.1bn out of "Food Retail". Net shorts increased A$0.6bn week-on-week.
</li>
<li>Companies mentioned in this regular weekly report include: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wisetech-global-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22669:1" rel="noopener">Wisetech Global (WTC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ampol-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:345:1" rel="noopener">Ampol (ALD AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/droneshield-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30509:1" rel="noopener">DroneShield Ltd (DRO AU)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/develop-global-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19413:1" rel="noopener">Develop Global (DVP AU)</a>.</li>
</ul>


Australia's ASIC releases the aggregated short position data four business days after the reporting day. Data in this insight is up to 3rd August, published on the 7th August.

The largest industry net increase in the past week was A$0.1bn into "Metals"; the largest industry net decrease was A$0.1bn out of "Food Retail". Net shorts increased A$0.6bn week-on-week.

Companies mentioned in this regular weekly report include: Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU), Wisetech Global (WTC AU), Ampol (ALD AU), DroneShield Ltd (DRO AU), and Develop Global (DVP AU).


Aussie Shorts [3 Aug 2026]: Rio Tinto, Wisetech Global, Ampol, DroneShield, Develop Global

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Jul 31st (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD46.9bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Ampol, Origin Energy, Stockland, Dexus Property, Transurban.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Jul 31st (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD46.9bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Ampol, Origin Energy, Stockland, Dexus Property, Transurban.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jul 31st): Ampol, Origin Energy, Stockland, Dexus Property, Transurban

Australia

Ampol Limited provides petroleum products. The Company offers petrol and convenience network as well as refining, importing, and marketing fuels and lubricants. Ampol serves defence, mining, transport, marine, agriculture, aviation, and other commercial sectors in Australia.

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Ampol (ALD AU)

Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading India; Buys in Materials, Energy, Discretionary, Industrials

Bullish Outlook Intact on MSCI ACWI; Downgrading India to Market; Market Dynamics Healthy; Treat Pullbacks as Buying Opportunities; Buys in global...

Vermilion Research

Further Declines in DXY, Sovereign Yields May Provide More Fuel for a Rally in Global Equities

We continue to believe $93 on $ACWI is likely the low for this pullback as long as the 10-year Treasury yield $TNX and $DXY can stay below their...

Vermilion Research

Last Week In Event SPACE: Kakaku.com, Austal, Swire Pacific, Ajinomoto Malaysia

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Aussie Shorts [3 Aug 2026]: Rio Tinto, Wisetech Global, Ampol, DroneShield, Develop Global

The largest industry net increase in the past week was A$0.1bn into "Metals"; the largest industry net decrease was A$0.1bn out of "Food Retail"....

David Blennerhassett

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jul 31st): Ampol, Origin Energy, Stockland, Dexus Property, Transurban

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Ampol, Origin Energy, Stockland, Dexus Property,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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