HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

We think the secured project pipeline for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-conch-venture-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19943:1" rel="noopener">China Conch Venture Holdings (586 HK)</a> should drive encouraging double-digit growth in its core environmental business profit in the next three years. It expects a CAGR of 52.8% in completed waste incineration capacity and 30.2% in completed solid waste and hazardous waste capacity, which in our view, should underpin remarkable earnings outlook.The flat 1H21 profit is masked by a 5% drop in contribution from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anhui-conch-cement-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:159:1" rel="noopener">Anhui Conch Cement (914 HK)</a>. which, in flat, core earnings have surged 31.4% YoY. It solid new project win is an excellent demonstration of its competitiveness. Even for Anhui Conch, the 2H21 outlook is getting more positive than 1H21. We believe that at just 5.9x PER (ex-Anhui Conch) for FY21, the market has sharply undervalued Conch Venture's environmental operations, especially given its lower-than-peers gearing of 19.4% only.

We think the secured project pipeline for China Conch Venture Holdings (586 HK) should drive encouraging double-digit growth in its core environmental business profit in the next three years. It expects a CAGR of 52.8% in completed waste incineration capacity and 30.2% in completed solid waste and hazardous waste capacity, which in our view, should underpin remarkable earnings outlook.The flat 1H21 profit is masked by a 5% drop in contribution from Anhui Conch Cement (914 HK). which, in flat, core earnings have surged 31.4% YoY. It solid new project win is an excellent demonstration of its competitiveness. Even for Anhui Conch, the 2H21 outlook is getting more positive than 1H21. We believe that at just 5.9x PER (ex-Anhui Conch) for FY21, the market has sharply undervalued Conch Venture's environmental operations, especially given its lower-than-peers gearing of 19.4% only.

Conch Venture (586 HK): Better Fortunes Going Forward

China Everbright Environment Group / Equity Bottom-Up

China Everbright Environment Group (257 HK)

We think <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-everbright-environment-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15946:1" rel="noopener">China Everbright Environment (257 HK)</a> (CEE) is the best-performing environment company within the China Everbright Group, as evidenced by the 38.8% YoY growth in 1H21 earnings (ex-consolidated subsidiaries <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-everbright-water-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31446:1" rel="noopener">China Everbright Water (1857 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-everbright-greentech-0377b31c-5401-466f-987e-9a176b05fb52" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24085:1" rel="noopener">China Everbright Greentech (1257 HK)</a>). Management's indication in the post-1H21 call that operating cash flow rose 77% YoY in the period is also a good sign.Excellent new project momentum and secured project pipeline should drive CEE's earnings in the next two years. The trend of increase in operation service revenue is also positive as this should support the growth in recurrent income and operating cash flow. We continue to see encouraging outlook for its waste-to-energy business, and with 21 projects under construction, this segment will underpin its profit outlook.  In our view, CEE's valuations of 4.1x PER and 0.61x P/B for FY21 are very appealing.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-environment-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2832:1" rel="noopener"></a>

We think China Everbright Environment (257 HK) (CEE) is the best-performing environment company within the China Everbright Group, as evidenced by the 38.8% YoY growth in 1H21 earnings (ex-consolidated subsidiaries China Everbright Water (1857 HK) and China Everbright Greentech (1257 HK)). Management's indication in the post-1H21 call that operating cash flow rose 77% YoY in the period is also a good sign.Excellent new project momentum and secured project pipeline should drive CEE's earnings in the next two years. The trend of increase in operation service revenue is also positive as this should support the growth in recurrent income and operating cash flow. We continue to see encouraging outlook for its waste-to-energy business, and with 21 projects under construction, this segment will underpin its profit outlook.  In our view, CEE's valuations of 4.1x PER and 0.61x P/B for FY21 are very appealing.  

China Everbright Environment (257 HK): The Most Impressive of All

China Everbright Greentech / Equity Bottom-Up

Due to weaker construction revenue for biomass projects and higher finance costs, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-everbright-greentech-0377b31c-5401-466f-987e-9a176b05fb52" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24085:1" rel="noopener">China Everbright Greentech (1257 HK)</a> realised a 15% YoY decline in net profit in 1H21. But on HoH basis, this has still increased 3.2%. Except biomass construction, all business segments witnessed good growth. It is encouraging to see operational projects contributed 70% of revenue in 1H21, up massively from 56% a year ago. We believe this trend will improve its earnings quality and financial position over the medium term. Management expects good growth for hazardous and waste treatment segment, both in construction and operational revenue given the project pipeline. Lower capex, collection of subsidies and securitisation will further lift its financial position. At 3.9x PER for FY21, CEGT is not expensive but we still prefer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-everbright-environment-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15946:1" rel="noopener">China Everbright Environment (257 HK)</a>. Alternatively, we cannot rule out the possibility that CEGT will be privatise some time in the future, given its undemanding 0.4x P/B and the reducing need for such a separately-listed vehicle within the China Everbright Group.

Due to weaker construction revenue for biomass projects and higher finance costs, China Everbright Greentech (1257 HK) realised a 15% YoY decline in net profit in 1H21. But on HoH basis, this has still increased 3.2%. Except biomass construction, all business segments witnessed good growth. It is encouraging to see operational projects contributed 70% of revenue in 1H21, up massively from 56% a year ago. We believe this trend will improve its earnings quality and financial position over the medium term. Management expects good growth for hazardous and waste treatment segment, both in construction and operational revenue given the project pipeline. Lower capex, collection of subsidies and securitisation will further lift its financial position. At 3.9x PER for FY21, CEGT is not expensive but we still prefer China Everbright Environment (257 HK). Alternatively, we cannot rule out the possibility that CEGT will be privatise some time in the future, given its undemanding 0.4x P/B and the reducing need for such a separately-listed vehicle within the China Everbright Group.

China Everbright Greentech (1257 HK): Updates from Post-1H21 Call

We take the FY21 guidances for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-conch-venture-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19943:1" rel="noopener">China Conch Venture Holdings (586 HK)</a> positively and believe they are more important than the FY20 result. In fact, despite a slowdown from 40-50% YoY growth in the previous two years, Conch Venture's 24.6% growth in its core environmental business in FY20 is still a very decent show under a COVID-19 impacted situation.Conch Venture is expecting 76% growth in solid waste treatment volume and a 65% growth in municipal waste treated in its waste incineration business in FY21, on the back of capacity completion. We believe such volume growth should easily support over 80% surge in core environment profit in this year. Its solid project pipeline will further ensure growth beyond FY21. Adding low gearing and undemanding valuation multiples, Conch Venture is well placed in China's environment sector.

We take the FY21 guidances for China Conch Venture Holdings (586 HK) positively and believe they are more important than the FY20 result. In fact, despite a slowdown from 40-50% YoY growth in the previous two years, Conch Venture's 24.6% growth in its core environmental business in FY20 is still a very decent show under a COVID-19 impacted situation.Conch Venture is expecting 76% growth in solid waste treatment volume and a 65% growth in municipal waste treated in its waste incineration business in FY21, on the back of capacity completion. We believe such volume growth should easily support over 80% surge in core environment profit in this year. Its solid project pipeline will further ensure growth beyond FY21. Adding low gearing and undemanding valuation multiples, Conch Venture is well placed in China's environment sector. 

Conch Venture (586 HK): Still Very Well Placed

Canvest Environmental Protection Group / Equity Bottom-Up

Canvest Environmental Protection Group (0XC SW)

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canvest-environmental-protection-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:100:1" rel="noopener">Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK)</a> witnessed a good comeback in 2H20 as its BOT construction segment regained pace after the disruption by the pandemic in 1H20. The company finished the year with an 18.1% YoY growth in profit to a record HK$1.05bn, accelerated from 12.7% in 1H20.Thanks to another 10,090 tonnes/day waste-to-energy capacity which will come on stream in FY21, there will be a 47% increase in operational capacity. Adding to this is better gross margin as new plants achieve higher utilisation levels. Hence, management guides for an encouraging outlook, and we expect healthy double-digit EPS growth over the next two years. Its low valuations of 6.8x PER and 1.1x P/B (ROE of 16.5%) have sufficiently discounted the concerns on high leverage, in our view.

Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK) witnessed a good comeback in 2H20 as its BOT construction segment regained pace after the disruption by the pandemic in 1H20. The company finished the year with an 18.1% YoY growth in profit to a record HK$1.05bn, accelerated from 12.7% in 1H20.Thanks to another 10,090 tonnes/day waste-to-energy capacity which will come on stream in FY21, there will be a 47% increase in operational capacity. Adding to this is better gross margin as new plants achieve higher utilisation levels. Hence, management guides for an encouraging outlook, and we expect healthy double-digit EPS growth over the next two years. Its low valuations of 6.8x PER and 1.1x P/B (ROE of 16.5%) have sufficiently discounted the concerns on high leverage, in our view.  

Canvest Env (1381 HK): Setting a Positive Tone for Further Strength

Hong Kong

Canvest Environmental Protection Group operates and manages waste-to-energy plants in the People's Republic of China. The company also provides environmental hygiene, waste processing, and integrated smart city management services, including smart car parking. It was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Sheung Wan, Hong Kong.

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Canvest Environmental Protection Group (0XC SW)

Conch Venture (586 HK): Better Fortunes Going Forward

Good secured pipeline of waste incineration and solid and hazardous waste treatment capacity should underpin very solid outlook for the core...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Everbright Environment (257 HK): The Most Impressive of All

CEE recorded impressive 1H21 earnings growth, and with higher tariff, solid new project momentum, continued strong pipeline and improving cash...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Everbright Greentech (1257 HK): Updates from Post-1H21 Call

1H21 net profit is behind expectation but the good news is that earnings quality has improved with slowdown in the rise in gearing. We still prefer...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Conch Venture (586 HK): Still Very Well Placed

Conch Venture's core environmental profit will grow by at least 80% in FY21, based on guidances for solid waste and waste incineration volume. Its...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Canvest Env (1381 HK): Setting a Positive Tone for Further Strength

Canvest posted a record earnings for FY20 despite the challenging environment due to COVID-19. Management suggested a robust picture for FY21,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

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