Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Today, I was the first analyst to gain access to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/esr-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27983:1" rel="noopener">ESR (1821 HK)</a>'s lesser-known shareholder register, a byproduct of investigative disclosure reports under s329 of the Securities and Futures Ordinance.</li>
<li>This is the same register discussed in<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/compose/insight/188795/Giordano%20(709%20HK):%20A%20Closer%20Look%20At%20The%20Shareholder%20Register%20Ahead%20Of%20The%20SGM.%20Read%20more:%20https:/skr.ma/jafza" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Giordano (709 HK): A Closer Look At The Shareholder Register Ahead Of The SGM</a> and<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/compose/insight/188795/L'Occitane%20(973%20HK):%20Who%20Owns%20What,%20And%20When.%20Read%20more:%20https:/skr.ma/Zg7gC" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> L'Occitane (973 HK): Who Owns What, And When</a>
</li>
<li>It is also used by proxy solicitors. My takeaway, still, is that this Offer is a done deal. But yes; there are a few shareholder activists lurking in the register. </li>
</ul>


Today, I was the first analyst to gain access to ESR (1821 HK)'s lesser-known shareholder register, a byproduct of investigative disclosure reports under s329 of the Securities and Futures Ordinance.
This is the same register discussed in Giordano (709 HK): A Closer Look At The Shareholder Register Ahead Of The SGM and L'Occitane (973 HK): Who Owns What, And When

It is also used by proxy solicitors. My takeaway, still, is that this Offer is a done deal. But yes; there are a few shareholder activists lurking in the register. 


ESR (1821 HK): A Shareholder Register Look-Through

<ul>
<li>After tyre component manufacturer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xingda-international-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17836:1" rel="noopener">Xingda International (1899 HK)</a> was suspended recently pursuant to the Takeovers Code, an Offer seemed more likely, not another Partial Offer. </li>
<li>On cue, Liu Jinlan, chairman and executive director, plus concert parties (collectively holding 37.03%), have<a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/0924/2024092401001.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> tabled a voluntary conditional Offer</a> (50% acceptance hurdle). But the price? A surprising zero-premium HK$1.30/share</li>
<li>However, this Offer is a pre-emptive strike against former employee Yue Zhao, who holds 9.24%; and was recently appointed ED and vice-chairman of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shougang-concord-century-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5500:1" rel="noopener">Shougang Concord (103 HK)</a>, Xingda's major competitor.</li>
</ul>


After tyre component manufacturer Xingda International (1899 HK) was suspended recently pursuant to the Takeovers Code, an Offer seemed more likely, not another Partial Offer. 
On cue, Liu Jinlan, chairman and executive director, plus concert parties (collectively holding 37.03%), have tabled a voluntary conditional Offer (50% acceptance hurdle). But the price? A surprising zero-premium HK$1.30/share
However, this Offer is a pre-emptive strike against former employee Yue Zhao, who holds 9.24%; and was recently appointed ED and vice-chairman of Shougang Concord (103 HK), Xingda's major competitor.


Xingda (1899 HK)'s HK$1.30/Share Offer - Say What?

<ul>
<li>Cuscaden Peak, the sponsor of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/paragon-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5994:1" rel="noopener">Paragon REIT (PGNREIT SP)</a> and 61.5% shareholder, has offered S$0.98/unit, in cash; or S$1.003/unit, a 7% premium to NAV, when including FY24's S$0.0233/unit cash distribution.</li>
<li>The Offer is by way of a Scheme. The Offer price has NOT been declared final. A switch option into a voluntary Offer is afforded should a competing Offer emerge.</li>
<li>Looks pretty clean. Assuming mid-late May payment, pay up to S$0.97/share for a 4%/15% gross/annualised spread. It may trade tighter given the early distribution payment.</li>
</ul>


Cuscaden Peak, the sponsor of Paragon REIT (PGNREIT SP) and 61.5% shareholder, has offered S$0.98/unit, in cash; or S$1.003/unit, a 7% premium to NAV, when including FY24's S$0.0233/unit cash distribution.
The Offer is by way of a Scheme. The Offer price has NOT been declared final. A switch option into a voluntary Offer is afforded should a competing Offer emerge.
Looks pretty clean. Assuming mid-late May payment, pay up to S$0.97/share for a 4%/15% gross/annualised spread. It may trade tighter given the early distribution payment.


Paragon REIT (PGNREIT SP)'s Privatisation Offer

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-conch-venture-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19943:1" rel="noopener">China Conch Venture Holdings (586 HK)</a> is now at negative stub value, the low-end since 2020. This is despite a 16.4% growth in 1H22 core earnings to Rmb542m.</li>
<li>The company's waste-to-energy (WTE) capacity will increase by 25% in FY23 and its internal target calls for an earnings CAGR of 33% between FY21 and FY25 for WTE segment.</li>
<li>We should not underestimate the potential from new business initiatives including cathode and anode materials and lithium battery recycling. They have good medium-to-long term exposure to China's new energy industry.</li>
</ul>



China Conch Venture Holdings (586 HK) is now at negative stub value, the low-end since 2020. This is despite a 16.4% growth in 1H22 core earnings to Rmb542m.
The company's waste-to-energy (WTE) capacity will increase by 25% in FY23 and its internal target calls for an earnings CAGR of 33% between FY21 and FY25 for WTE segment.
We should not underestimate the potential from new business initiatives including cathode and anode materials and lithium battery recycling. They have good medium-to-long term exposure to China's new energy industry.


Conch Venture (586 HK): An Overlooked Value Play

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Zheneng Jinjiang Environment / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Jieneng Investment’s offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zheneng-jinjiang-environment-holding-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22847:1" rel="noopener">Zheneng Jinjiang Environment (ZJE SP)</a> is at S$0.70 a share, a 19.7% premium to the undisturbed price. Two potential S$0.0225 dividends take the total to S$0.7225–S$0.745.</li>
<li>The Chinese regulatory approvals look low-risk because the buyers are SOEs, a precedent (Canvest) got the same approvals, and waste-to-energy is a favoured sector. The main risk is timing.</li>
<li>Holders of 83% of disinterested shares have given irrevocables, above the 75% needed. The shares have not closed above S$0.70 for over 5.5 years. This is a done deal.</li>
</ul>


Jieneng Investment’s offer for Zheneng Jinjiang Environment (ZJE SP) is at S$0.70 a share, a 19.7% premium to the undisturbed price. Two potential S$0.0225 dividends take the total to S$0.7225–S$0.745.
The Chinese regulatory approvals look low-risk because the buyers are SOEs, a precedent (Canvest) got the same approvals, and waste-to-energy is a favoured sector. The main risk is timing.
Holders of 83% of disinterested shares have given irrevocables, above the 75% needed. The shares have not closed above S$0.70 for over 5.5 years. This is a done deal.


Zheneng Jinjiang Environment (ZJE SP): SOE-Backed Privatisation Looks Near-Certain to Complete

Hong Kong

Canvest Environmental Protection Group operates and manages waste-to-energy plants in the People's Republic of China. The company also provides environmental hygiene, waste processing, and integrated smart city management services, including smart car parking. It was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Sheung Wan, Hong Kong.

Canvest Environmental Protection Group (0XC SW)

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Canvest Environmental Protection Group (0XC SW)

ESR (1821 HK): A Shareholder Register Look-Through

I don't see anyting material or untoward in the s329 register. 56.54% of disinterested shares are supportive. If 10th July payment, this is trading...

David Blennerhassett

Paragon REIT (PGNREIT SP)'s Privatisation Offer

Looks pretty clean. A 7% premium to NAV and a roughly two-year high. If payment on or around late May, I'd pay up to S$0.97/share for a gross...

David Blennerhassett

Conch Venture (586 HK): An Overlooked Value Play

The market has deeply undervalued Conch Venture's waste-to-energy business as reflected by the negative stub value. New business initiatives and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Zheneng Jinjiang Environment (ZJE SP): SOE-Backed Privatisation Looks Near-Certain to Complete

Jieneng's S$0.70 ZJE offer (19.7% premium; S$0.7225–0.745 with dividends) looks done: SOE buyers, Canvest precedent, 83% irrevocables vs 75%...

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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ESR (1821 HK): A Shareholder Register Look-Through

I don't see anyting material or untoward in the s329 register. 56.54% of disinterested shares are supportive. If 10th July payment, this is trading...

David Blennerhassett

Xingda (1899 HK)'s HK$1.30/Share Offer - Say What?

I'd be picking up shares here. You have a HK$1.30/share floor. I think Liu may bid higher. Then it's a question whether Zhao tips in his hand.

David Blennerhassett

Paragon REIT (PGNREIT SP)'s Privatisation Offer

Looks pretty clean. A 7% premium to NAV and a roughly two-year high. If payment on or around late May, I'd pay up to S$0.97/share for a gross...

David Blennerhassett

Conch Venture (586 HK): An Overlooked Value Play

The market has deeply undervalued Conch Venture's waste-to-energy business as reflected by the negative stub value. New business initiatives and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Zheneng Jinjiang Environment (ZJE SP): SOE-Backed Privatisation Looks Near-Certain to Complete

Jieneng's S$0.70 ZJE offer (19.7% premium; S$0.7225–0.745 with dividends) looks done: SOE buyers, Canvest precedent, 83% irrevocables vs 75%...

Arun George