Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Downtrends remain intact for Japan’s TOPIX/Nikkei 225, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, Europe’s EURO STOXX50, Germany's DAX, China (MCHI-US), and all the MSCI global indexes (ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE).</li>
<li>The majority of these indexes are in well-defined downtrends; that means when the downtrends eventually reverse, it will be clear and we will be ready to buy/turn bullish.</li>
<li>Relative strength on Japan's TOPIX is reversing topside a 4.5-year downtrend, signaling Japan is emerging as leadership. We highlight buy opportunities in Japan and also in defensive Sectors</li>
</ul>


Downtrends remain intact for Japan’s TOPIX/Nikkei 225, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, Europe’s EURO STOXX50, Germany's DAX, China (MCHI-US), and all the MSCI global indexes (ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE).
The majority of these indexes are in well-defined downtrends; that means when the downtrends eventually reverse, it will be clear and we will be ready to buy/turn bullish.
Relative strength on Japan's TOPIX is reversing topside a 4.5-year downtrend, signaling Japan is emerging as leadership. We highlight buy opportunities in Japan and also in defensive Sectors


Japan Emerging as Leadership; Actionable Themes: Japan and Defensives

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Capcom results were previously flagged with a late guidance upgrade and so were unsurprising. </li>
<li>Guidance was a touch above consensus at both the revenue and OP levels but look somewhat conservative even on assumed unit volumes. </li>
<li>But we think there is significant upside to unit volumes and Capcom’s biggest challenge will be to hold down profit so they can generate double digit growth the year after.</li>
</ul>


Capcom results were previously flagged with a late guidance upgrade and so were unsurprising. 
Guidance was a touch above consensus at both the revenue and OP levels but look somewhat conservative even on assumed unit volumes. 
But we think there is significant upside to unit volumes and Capcom’s biggest challenge will be to hold down profit so they can generate double digit growth the year after.


Capcom – Can They Keep Suppressing Profit?

<ul>
<li>Valorant’s Masters 1 Tournament concluded today in Iceland with North America’s Optic Gaming defeating Brazil’s Loud, leaving Japan’s Zeta Division in third place. </li>
<li>These are three key regions for viewership and Japan’s surprising performance bodes well for the esports scene in the country. </li>
<li>Gameplay for Valorant Mobile has also leaked and early indications are that Krafton could be cannibalised here.</li>
</ul>


Valorant’s Masters 1 Tournament concluded today in Iceland with North America’s Optic Gaming defeating Brazil’s Loud, leaving Japan’s Zeta Division in third place. 
These are three key regions for viewership and Japan’s surprising performance bodes well for the esports scene in the country. 
Gameplay for Valorant Mobile has also leaked and early indications are that Krafton could be cannibalised here.


Valorant Is Good For Japanese Esports and Bad for Krafton

<ul>
<li>We have previously commented on Valorant’s relatively unique position in esports due to its high degree of regional parity and that is being further underscored during its ongoing Masters tournament. </li>
<li>In particular, Japan, a region not known for any particular prowess in FPS titles secured its first top eight position generating significant buzz on twitter in doing so. </li>
<li>The implications look positive here for both Valorant overall and for Japan’s esports ambitions where it is probably now time to truly familiarise yourself with the potential plays.</li>
</ul>


We have previously commented on Valorant’s relatively unique position in esports due to its high degree of regional parity and that is being further underscored during its ongoing Masters tournament. 
In particular, Japan, a region not known for any particular prowess in FPS titles secured its first top eight position generating significant buzz on twitter in doing so. 
The implications look positive here for both Valorant overall and for Japan’s esports ambitions where it is probably now time to truly familiarise yourself with the potential plays.


Valorant’s Regional Parity and Japan’s Emerging Esports Scene

<ul>
<li>A month ago Capcom announced Street Fighter 6 with a small trailer featuring no actual gameplay footage. </li>
<li>Given the somewhat haphazard launch of Street Fighter 5 expectations for the title are likely to be moderate. </li>
<li>However, there has been much progress since the launch of Street Fighter 5 and there are some promising signs to consider.</li>
</ul>


A month ago Capcom announced Street Fighter 6 with a small trailer featuring no actual gameplay footage. 
Given the somewhat haphazard launch of Street Fighter 5 expectations for the title are likely to be moderate. 
However, there has been much progress since the launch of Street Fighter 5 and there are some promising signs to consider.


Capcom – The Prospects for Street Fighter 6

Japan

CAPCOM CO., LTD. develops consumer video game software.  The Company also develops, manufactures, markets, and leases arcade game machines.  Capcom also operates amusement facilities.

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Capcom Co Ltd (9697 JP)

Japan Emerging as Leadership; Actionable Themes: Japan and Defensives

Despite the intact downtrend on Japan's TOPIX, relative strength is reversing topside a 4.5-year downtrend; this tells us Japan is emerging as...

Vermilion Research

Capcom – Can They Keep Suppressing Profit?

Capcom guidance was reasonable, coming in slightly higher than consensus but we maintain that the company is sandbagging and its earnings...

Mio Kato

Valorant Is Good For Japanese Esports and Bad for Krafton

Regional parity and strong performance by a Japanese team in Valorant could kick start Japan's esports drive while Valorant Mobile looks like a...

Mio Kato

Valorant’s Regional Parity and Japan’s Emerging Esports Scene

We outline our thoughts on esports in Japan and globally based on some interesting trends during the ongoing Valorant international tournament.

Mio Kato

Capcom – The Prospects for Street Fighter 6

Expectations for Street Fighter 6 appear to be moderate rather than exceptional at the moment but we see signs that Capcom has started to figure...

Mio Kato

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