Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Context: Statistical analysis of a relative value opportunity between <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perseus-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15306:1" rel="noopener">Perseus Mining (PRU AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/capricorn-metals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10775:1" rel="noopener">Capricorn Metals (CMM AU)</a>, two Australian gold miners.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Going long Perseus Mining and short Capricorn Metals targets a 9% return to the statistical mean reversion level, with Perseus offering cheaper valuations and higher growth.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.</li>
</ul>



Context: Statistical analysis of a relative value opportunity between Perseus Mining (PRU AU) and Capricorn Metals (CMM AU), two Australian gold miners.

Highlights: Going long Perseus Mining and short Capricorn Metals targets a 9% return to the statistical mean reversion level, with Perseus offering cheaper valuations and higher growth.

Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.


Perseus Mining Vs. Capricorn Metals: Striking Gold with Statistical Arbitrage

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Jun 13th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD27.1bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Northern Star Resources, Cochlear, Commonwealth Bank Of Australia, Sigma Pharmaceuticals, Evolution Mining, Brambles.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Jun 13th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD27.1bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Northern Star Resources, Cochlear, Commonwealth Bank Of Australia, Sigma Pharmaceuticals, Evolution Mining, Brambles.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jun 13th): Northern Star Resources, Cochlear

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/capricorn-metals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10775:1" rel="noopener">Capricorn Metals (CMM AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genesis-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4650:1" rel="noopener">Genesis Minerals (GMD AU)</a> will be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-australian-re" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30999:1" rel="noopener">Vaneck Vectors Australian Re (MVR AU)</a> in June.</li>
<li>Constituent changes, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 8% and a round-trip trade of A$49m.</li>
<li>There has been short covering in both adds over the last couple of years. While short interest is relatively smaller in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/capricorn-metals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10775:1" rel="noopener">Capricorn Metals</a>, it is much higher in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genesis-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4650:1" rel="noopener">Genesis Minerals</a>.</li>
</ul>



Capricorn Metals (CMM AU) and Genesis Minerals (GMD AU) will be added to the Vaneck Vectors Australian Re (MVR AU) in June.
Constituent changes, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 8% and a round-trip trade of A$49m.
There has been short covering in both adds over the last couple of years. While short interest is relatively smaller in Capricorn Metals, it is much higher in Genesis Minerals.


MV Australia Resources Index Rebalance: Two Adds, Float & Capping Changes

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/spartan-resources-ltd-australi" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1818:1" rel="noopener">Spartan Resources (SPR AU)</a> IE considers <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ramelius-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5968:1" rel="noopener">Ramelius Resources (RMS AU)</a>’s offer (A$0.25 cash per share + 0.6957 RMS shares per SPR share) fair and reasonable.</li>
<li>The offer is conditional on SPR shareholder approval. The vote remains low-risk and is aided by irrevocables (16.87% of outstanding shares). </li>
<li>This is a done deal. At the last close and for a 31 July payment, the gross/annualised spread is 0.8%/5.0%.  </li>
</ul>


The Spartan Resources (SPR AU) IE considers Ramelius Resources (RMS AU)’s offer (A$0.25 cash per share + 0.6957 RMS shares per SPR share) fair and reasonable.
The offer is conditional on SPR shareholder approval. The vote remains low-risk and is aided by irrevocables (16.87% of outstanding shares). 
This is a done deal. At the last close and for a 31 July payment, the gross/annualised spread is 0.8%/5.0%.  


Spartan Resources (SPR AU): Scheme Vote on 11 July

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold-road-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6698:1" rel="noopener">Gold Road Resources (GOR AU)</a> has entered a scheme with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold-fields-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25109:1" rel="noopener">Gold Fields Ltd (GFI SJ)</a>. The consideration is A$2.52 cash + value per share of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/northern-star-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4243:1" rel="noopener">Northern Star Resources (NST AU)</a> stake.</li>
<li>The proposal is a logical consolidation to eliminate dissynergies between the JV partners. The offer is attractive compared to peer multiples, precedent transactions and historical trading ranges. </li>
<li>The vote is low-risk, with irrevocables representing 7.51% of the outstanding shares. At the last close and for an early October payment, the gross/annualised spread was 4.1%/10.0%.</li>
</ul>



Gold Road Resources (GOR AU) has entered a scheme with Gold Fields Ltd (GFI SJ). The consideration is A$2.52 cash + value per share of Northern Star Resources (NST AU) stake.
The proposal is a logical consolidation to eliminate dissynergies between the JV partners. The offer is attractive compared to peer multiples, precedent transactions and historical trading ranges. 
The vote is low-risk, with irrevocables representing 7.51% of the outstanding shares. At the last close and for an early October payment, the gross/annualised spread was 4.1%/10.0%.


Gold Road (GOR AU): Gold Fields (GFI SJ) Attractive Scheme Offer

Australia

Capricorn Metals Ltd operates as an exploration and production company. The Company specializes in the gold exploration and production services. Capricorn Metals serves customers in Australia.

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Capricorn Metals (CMM AU)

Perseus Mining Vs. Capricorn Metals: Striking Gold with Statistical Arbitrage

Statistical analysis shows a pair trade opportunity by going long Perseus Mining and short Capricorn Metals. Ideal for quantitative traders...

Gaudenz Schneider

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jun 13th): Northern Star Resources, Cochlear

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Northern Star Resources (NST AU), Cochlear (COH...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

MV Australia Resources Index Rebalance: Two Adds, Float & Capping Changes

The 2 adds and float/capping changes result in a one-way turnover of 8% and a round-trip trade of A$49m. Shorts have been covering both adds, but...

Brian Freitas

Spartan Resources (SPR AU): Scheme Vote on 11 July

This is a done deal, in part due to the irrevocables. At the last close and for a 31 July payment, the gross/annualised spread is 0.8%/5.0%.

Arun George

Gold Road (GOR AU): Gold Fields (GFI SJ) Attractive Scheme Offer

The vote is low-risk, with irrevocables representing 7.51% of the outstanding shares. At the last close and for an early October payment, the gross...

Arun George

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Perseus Mining Vs. Capricorn Metals: Striking Gold with Statistical Arbitrage

​Statistical analysis shows a pair trade opportunity by going long Perseus Mining and short Capricorn Metals. Ideal for quantitative traders...

Gaudenz Schneider

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jun 13th): Northern Star Resources, Cochlear

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Northern Star Resources (NST AU), Cochlear (COH...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

MV Australia Resources Index Rebalance: Two Adds, Float & Capping Changes

The 2 adds and float/capping changes result in a one-way turnover of 8% and a round-trip trade of A$49m. Shorts have been covering both adds, but...

Brian Freitas

Spartan Resources (SPR AU): Scheme Vote on 11 July

This is a done deal, in part due to the irrevocables. At the last close and for a 31 July payment, the gross/annualised spread is 0.8%/5.0%.

Arun George

Gold Road (GOR AU): Gold Fields (GFI SJ) Attractive Scheme Offer

The vote is low-risk, with irrevocables representing 7.51% of the outstanding shares. At the last close and for an early October payment, the gross...

Arun George

Statistical analysis shows a pair trade opportunity by going long Perseus Mining and short Capricorn Metals. Ideal for quantitative traders...