Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Harmony Gold Mining Co Ltd / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dacian-gold-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5749:1" rel="noopener">Dacian Gold Ltd (DCN AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold-resource-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26517:1" rel="noopener">Gold Resource (GORO US)</a> and Wallbridge Mining Co (WM CN) will be deleted from the index at the close on 17 March.</li>
<li>One way turnover is estimated at 2.8% resulting in a one-way trade of US$96m. There is over 1 day of ADV to trade on 22 stocks.</li>
<li>The largest inflows are on Triple Flag Precious Metals (TFPM US), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/osisko-gold-royalties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25587:1" rel="noopener">Osisko Gold Royalties</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhaojin-mining-industry-company-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4626:1" rel="noopener">Zhaojin Mining Industry</a>, New Found Gold (NFG CN), Yamana Gold, IAMGOLD and First Majestic Silver.</li>
</ul>



Dacian Gold Ltd (DCN AU), Gold Resource (GORO US) and Wallbridge Mining Co (WM CN) will be deleted from the index at the close on 17 March.
One way turnover is estimated at 2.8% resulting in a one-way trade of US$96m. There is over 1 day of ADV to trade on 22 stocks.
The largest inflows are on Triple Flag Precious Metals (TFPM US), Osisko Gold Royalties, Zhaojin Mining Industry, New Found Gold (NFG CN), Yamana Gold, IAMGOLD and First Majestic Silver.


MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Three Deletions & Float Changes

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oz-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1138:1" rel="noopener">OZ Minerals (OZL AU)</a> Scheme Meeting for the acquisition by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group (BHP AU)</a> will be held 13 April. The stock could stop trading post close on 18 April.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oz-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1138:1" rel="noopener">OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU)</a> is a member of the S&amp;P/ASX100 Index and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> so there will be replacements made at the close on 18 April.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to buy a fair amount of stock (with a decent impact) on the potential inclusions and the stocks could outperform over the next few weeks.</li>
</ul>


The OZ Minerals (OZL AU) Scheme Meeting for the acquisition by BHP Group (BHP AU) will be held 13 April. The stock could stop trading post close on 18 April.

OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU) is a member of the S&amp;P/ASX100 Index and S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) so there will be replacements made at the close on 18 April.
Passive trackers will need to buy a fair amount of stock (with a decent impact) on the potential inclusions and the stocks could outperform over the next few weeks.


OZ Minerals (OZL AU): Scheme Meeting in April; Potential S&P/ASX Changes

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Feb 3rd (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD16.3bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Coles, Bhp, Northern Star, Macquarie, Xero.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Feb 3rd (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD16.3bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Coles, Bhp, Northern Star, Macquarie, Xero.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Feb 3rd): Coles, Bhp, Northern Star, Macquarie, Xero

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/st-barbara-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3764:1" rel="noopener">St Barbara Ltd (SBM AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genesis-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4650:1" rel="noopener">Genesis Minerals (GMD AU)</a> will merge via a scheme at a gross exchange ratio of 2.0338 SBM shares per GMD share. </li>
<li>The deal metrics are favourable for GMD shareholders. The gross exchange ratio is attractive and values GMD at a slight premium to mid-cap ASX peers on an EV/Resource basis. </li>
<li>The likely pushback from SMB shareholders is that the terms were struck from a position of share price weakness. However, the low SMB shareholder voting threshold (50%) will help.</li>
</ul>



St Barbara Ltd (SBM AU) and Genesis Minerals (GMD AU) will merge via a scheme at a gross exchange ratio of 2.0338 SBM shares per GMD share. 
The deal metrics are favourable for GMD shareholders. The gross exchange ratio is attractive and values GMD at a slight premium to mid-cap ASX peers on an EV/Resource basis. 
The likely pushback from SMB shareholders is that the terms were struck from a position of share price weakness. However, the low SMB shareholder voting threshold (50%) will help.


Genesis Minerals (GMD AU) And St Barbara (SBM AU) Merger

<ul>
<li>Filo Mining (FIL CN) and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tietto-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28006:1" rel="noopener">Tietto Minerals (TIE AU)</a> are adds while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fresnillo-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21939:1" rel="noopener">Fresnillo (FRES LN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/galiano-gold-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32201:1" rel="noopener">Galiano Gold (GAU US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jaguar-mining-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25393:1" rel="noopener">Jaguar Mining (JAG CN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/novo-resources-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25859:1" rel="noopener">Novo Resources (NVO CN)</a> are deletes.</li>
<li>One way turnover is estimated at 4.3% resulting in a one-way trade of US$163m. There is over 1 day of ADV to trade on 24 stocks.</li>
<li>Largest inflows are on Filo Mining (FIL CN) and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tietto-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28006:1" rel="noopener">Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU)</a> while largest outflows are on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fresnillo-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21939:1" rel="noopener">Fresnillo PLC (FRES LN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/centerra-gold-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25634:1" rel="noopener">Centerra Gold (CG CN)</a>. </li>
</ul>


Filo Mining (FIL CN) and Tietto Minerals (TIE AU) are adds while Fresnillo (FRES LN), Galiano Gold (GAU US), Jaguar Mining (JAG CN) and Novo Resources (NVO CN) are deletes.
One way turnover is estimated at 4.3% resulting in a one-way trade of US$163m. There is over 1 day of ADV to trade on 24 stocks.
Largest inflows are on Filo Mining (FIL CN) and Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU) while largest outflows are on Fresnillo PLC (FRES LN) and Centerra Gold (CG CN). 


MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Two Adds, Four Deletes, Float Changes

Australia

Capricorn Metals Ltd operates as an exploration and production company. The Company specializes in the gold exploration and production services. Capricorn Metals serves customers in Australia.

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Capricorn Metals (CMM AU)

MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Three Deletions & Float Changes

There are 3 deletions for the index plus plenty of float changes. One way turnover is estimated at 2.8% resulting in a one-way trade of US$96m....

Brian Freitas

OZ Minerals (OZL AU): Scheme Meeting in April; Potential S&P/ASX Changes

OZL's acquisition by BHP is nearly a done deal. Passive trackers will sell 18.24m shs (A$509m; 9.6x ADV) of OZL on the last trading day. There will...

Brian Freitas

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Feb 3rd): Coles, Bhp, Northern Star, Macquarie, Xero

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Coles, Bhp, Northern Star, Macquarie, Xero.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Genesis Minerals (GMD AU) And St Barbara (SBM AU) Merger

The deal metrics are favourable for GMD shareholders. The gross exchange ratio is attractive and values GMD at a slight premium to mid-cap ASX...

Arun George

MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Two Adds, Four Deletes, Float Changes

There are 2 adds & 4 deletes resulting in one way turnover of 4.3% & a one-way trade of US$163m. There is over 1 day of ADV to trade on 24 stocks....

Brian Freitas

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