Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Amman Mineral Internasional / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)</a> has announced a benchmark change from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index.</li>
<li>The benchmark change will result in a bunch of constituent and weight changes in September. Estimated one-way turnover is 16.5% resulting in a one-way trade of US$3.15bn.</li>
<li>The flow and turnover numbers will change following constituent and capping changes for the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index at the September rebalance.</li>
</ul>


The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) has announced a benchmark change from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index.
The benchmark change will result in a bunch of constituent and weight changes in September. Estimated one-way turnover is 16.5% resulting in a one-way trade of US$3.15bn.
The flow and turnover numbers will change following constituent and capping changes for the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index at the September rebalance.


Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Impact of Benchmark Change - Update

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>A consortium comprising ADNOC and Carlyle have offered US$5.76/share (A$8.8807/share) to take <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/santos-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:711:1" rel="noopener">Santos Ltd (STO AU)</a> private. That values <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/santos-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:711:1" rel="noopener">Santos</a> equity at A$28.8bn and an Enterprise Value of A$36bn.</li>
<li>With the offer price at a premium of 28%-44% to last and VWAPs, and the Board supporting the offer, this looks like a done deal.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/santos-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:711:1" rel="noopener">Santos Ltd (STO AU)</a> is a member of all the major S&amp;P/ASX indices and there will be ad hoc inclusions to the indices at the time of the delisting.</li>
</ul>


A consortium comprising ADNOC and Carlyle have offered US$5.76/share (A$8.8807/share) to take Santos Ltd (STO AU) private. That values Santos equity at A$28.8bn and an Enterprise Value of A$36bn.
With the offer price at a premium of 28%-44% to last and VWAPs, and the Board supporting the offer, this looks like a done deal.

Santos Ltd (STO AU) is a member of all the major S&amp;P/ASX indices and there will be ad hoc inclusions to the indices at the time of the delisting.


Santos (STO AU): XRG Consortium's Big Offer; Index Impact

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Taylor Collison

Taylor Collison

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Taylor Collison is a leading financial services firm, providing advice & wealth creation strategies to private & institutional investors and corporate clients throughout Australia. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Catalyst has had a positive start to FY25, as record-high gold prices provide the backdrop to a stable yet impressive performance at Plutonic UG Mine.</li><li>Through the organic development of three additional mines along the Plutonic Belt, the Company has mapped out plans to double gold production from 100 to 200koz per year while decreasing AISC from ~A$2,666/oz (FY24a) towards A$2,100 in FY27 (Ce).</li><li>If CYL executes this strategy it will position itself amongst the top gold producers within Western Australia. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Catalyst has had a positive start to FY25, as record-high gold prices provide the backdrop to a stable yet impressive performance at Plutonic UG Mine.Through the organic development of three additional mines along the Plutonic Belt, the Company has mapped out plans to double gold production from 100 to 200koz per year while decreasing AISC from ~A$2,666/oz (FY24a) towards A$2,100 in FY27 (Ce).If CYL executes this strategy it will position itself amongst the top gold producers within Western Australia. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Catalyst Metals (CYL) - Recent Performance Setting the Stage for Future Growth

<ul>
<li>There are 2 changes for the S&amp;P/ASX50 Index, 2 changes for the S&amp;P/ASX100 Index, 7 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX200 Index</a> and 11 adds/ 7 deletes for the S&amp;P/ASX300 Index.</li>
<li>There is a huge increase in the number of index shares for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sigma-healthcare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15966:1" rel="noopener">Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU)</a>, triggering passive buying of nearly A$1.4bn at the close on 21 March.</li>
<li>The adds have outperformed the deletes across all indices. Positioning varies across stocks and there could be some big movers over the next few days.</li>
</ul>


There are 2 changes for the S&amp;P/ASX50 Index, 2 changes for the S&amp;P/ASX100 Index, 7 changes for the S&amp;P/ASX200 Index and 11 adds/ 7 deletes for the S&amp;P/ASX300 Index.
There is a huge increase in the number of index shares for Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU), triggering passive buying of nearly A$1.4bn at the close on 21 March.
The adds have outperformed the deletes across all indices. Positioning varies across stocks and there could be some big movers over the next few days.


S&P/​​​​ASX Index Rebalance (Mar 2025): SIG Is the BIG One; Changes Galore Across Indices

<ul>
<li>Nearing a few days left in the review period, there could be 39 adds/deletes across the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices in March.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to trade a lot of stock in the forecast changes, with the impact being especially large for the changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200</a> and S&amp;P/ASX 300.</li>
<li>Except for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> that is heavily tracked, the performance of the forecast changes to the other indices has been very stable with adds outperforming deletes bigly.</li>
</ul>


Nearing a few days left in the review period, there could be 39 adds/deletes across the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices in March.
Passive trackers will need to trade a lot of stock in the forecast changes, with the impact being especially large for the changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 and S&amp;P/ASX 300.
Except for the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) that is heavily tracked, the performance of the forecast changes to the other indices has been very stable with adds outperforming deletes bigly.


S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Changes Stable as Adds Outperform Deletes Bigly

Australia

Catalyst Metals Ltd. operates as a mineral exploration company. The Company explores for and mines molybdenum. Catalyst Metals serves customers in Australia.

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Catalyst Metals (CYL AU)

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Impact of Benchmark Change - Update

Following the benchmark change, the GDX ETF could need to buy 8 stocks and sell 26 stocks. Estimated one-way turnover is 16.5% and the round-trip...

Brian Freitas

Santos (STO AU): XRG Consortium's Big Offer; Index Impact

A consortium has offered US$5.76/share to take Santos private. That values equity at A$28.8bn and an EV of A$36bn. There will be ad hoc adds to the...

Brian Freitas

Catalyst Metals (CYL) - Recent Performance Setting the Stage for Future Growth

Catalyst has had a positive start to FY25, as record-high gold prices provide the backdrop to a stable yet impressive performance at Plutonic UG Mine.

Taylor Collison

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance (Mar 2025): SIG Is the BIG One; Changes Galore Across Indices

There are 40 constituent changes across the indices. SIG is an add to 2 indices and also an upweight in 2 others - so big buying. The adds have...

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Changes Stable as Adds Outperform Deletes Bigly

There could be 39 changes for the S&P/ASX family in March. The forecast adds continue to outperform the forecast deletes in all indices. Huge...

Brian Freitas

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Impact of Benchmark Change - Update

Following the benchmark change, the GDX ETF could need to buy 8 stocks and sell 26 stocks. Estimated one-way turnover is 16.5% and the round-trip...

Brian Freitas

Santos (STO AU): XRG Consortium's Big Offer; Index Impact

A consortium has offered US$5.76/share to take Santos private. That values equity at A$28.8bn and an EV of A$36bn. There will be ad hoc adds to the...

Brian Freitas

Catalyst Metals (CYL) - Recent Performance Setting the Stage for Future Growth

Catalyst has had a positive start to FY25, as record-high gold prices provide the backdrop to a stable yet impressive performance at Plutonic UG Mine.

Taylor Collison

S&P/​​​​ASX Index Rebalance (Mar 2025): SIG Is the BIG One; Changes Galore Across Indices

There are 40 constituent changes across the indices. SIG is an add to 2 indices and also an upweight in 2 others - so big buying. The adds have...

Brian Freitas

S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Changes Stable as Adds Outperform Deletes Bigly

There could be 39 changes for the S&P/ASX family in March. The forecast adds continue to outperform the forecast deletes in all indices. Huge...

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance (Mar 2025): SIG Is the BIG One; Changes Galore Across Indices

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Changes Stable as Adds Outperform Deletes Bigly