Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Shinko Electric Industries / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>JIC announced a "mid-February" start date for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinko-electric-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15066:1" rel="noopener">Shinko Electric (6967 JP)</a>'s Tender Offer. That's a trifle disappointing based on when SAMR approved, but there are lots of people involved here.</li>
<li>What has been the long-term trend and the trend of the last two years is different. Be long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsuruha-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9536:1" rel="noopener">Tsuruha (3391 JP)</a>, short <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/welcia-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20895:1" rel="noopener">Welcia (3141 JP)</a> until above 4.5x, maybe 4.8x.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/macromill-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24026:1" rel="noopener">Macromill, Inc (3978 JP)</a>'s reward/risk ratio over the next year of buying at ¥1,250 and seeing what happens is quite good, especially if the deal breaks.</li>
</ul>


JIC announced a "mid-February" start date for Shinko Electric (6967 JP)'s Tender Offer. That's a trifle disappointing based on when SAMR approved, but there are lots of people involved here.
What has been the long-term trend and the trend of the last two years is different. Be long Tsuruha (3391 JP), short Welcia (3141 JP) until above 4.5x, maybe 4.8x.

Macromill, Inc (3978 JP)'s reward/risk ratio over the next year of buying at ¥1,250 and seeing what happens is quite good, especially if the deal breaks.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Shinko Elec, Tsuruha/Welcia, Macromill, Sun Corp/Cellebrite, MicroStrategy

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sun-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10803:1" rel="noopener">Sun Corp (6736 JP)</a> has retraced ~15% in the past month. Its 43.8% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cellebrite-di-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:37102:1" rel="noopener">Cellebrite (CLBT US)</a> is worth ~186% of its market cap, an all-time high. </li>
<li>Preceding my comments on Sun Corp are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>



Sun Corp (6736 JP) has retraced ~15% in the past month. Its 43.8% stake in Cellebrite (CLBT US) is worth ~186% of its market cap, an all-time high. 
Preceding my comments on Sun Corp are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: Sun Corp (6736 JP) Trading Cheap to Cellebrite (CLBT US)

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>The reason why <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sun-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10803:1" rel="noopener">Sun Corp (6736 JP)</a> has traditionally traded at a large discount to its potential outcome is the possibility of inefficient or delayed value realisation. </li>
<li>Materially ALL of the value of the company is in its holding in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cellebrite-di-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:37102:1" rel="noopener">Cellebrite DI (CLBT US)</a>. True Wind Capital, the SPAC sponsor of CLBT, just bought 19% of SunCorp. </li>
<li>They bought that for the CLBT, or the value realisation thereof. And now with the slightly surprising Tender Offer result, the chances of a better outcome are now higher.</li>
</ul>


The reason why Sun Corp (6736 JP) has traditionally traded at a large discount to its potential outcome is the possibility of inefficient or delayed value realisation. 
Materially ALL of the value of the company is in its holding in Cellebrite DI (CLBT US). True Wind Capital, the SPAC sponsor of CLBT, just bought 19% of SunCorp. 
They bought that for the CLBT, or the value realisation thereof. And now with the slightly surprising Tender Offer result, the chances of a better outcome are now higher.


<ul>
<li>The revised/final True Wind Tender Offer for up to 19% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sun-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10803:1" rel="noopener">Sun Corp (6736 JP)</a> ends this week. With the "excitement" the last two weeks, the SunCorp/CLBT ratio is higher.</li>
<li>The minimum threshold is relatively low. The Tender will most likely succeed with very high pro-ration. </li>
<li>For those on the edge, I discuss possibilities on the back end. It will be less liquid, but that may not be bad.</li>
</ul>


The revised/final True Wind Tender Offer for up to 19% of Sun Corp (6736 JP) ends this week. With the "excitement" the last two weeks, the SunCorp/CLBT ratio is higher.
The minimum threshold is relatively low. The Tender will most likely succeed with very high pro-ration. 
For those on the edge, I discuss possibilities on the back end. It will be less liquid, but that may not be bad.


To Tender Or Not - Gauging The Future of Sun Corp (6736)

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>ECM developments: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ola-electric-mobility-pvt-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40618:1" rel="noopener">Ola Electric (1700674D IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/brainbees-solutions" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36115:1" rel="noopener">BrainBees Solutions (0172540D IN)</a> IPOs.</li>
<li>Event-Driven developments: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/a8-new-media-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3444:1" rel="noopener">A8 New Media (800 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asia-cement-china-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3374:1" rel="noopener">Asia Cement China (743 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpmc-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10427:1" rel="noopener">CPMC Holdings (906 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fancl-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15862:1" rel="noopener">Fancl Corp (4921 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sun-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10803:1" rel="noopener">Sun Corp (6736 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pacific-metals-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3439:1" rel="noopener">Pacific Metals (5541 JP)</a>. </li>
</ul>


A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: Ola Electric (1700674D IN) and BrainBees Solutions (0172540D IN) IPOs.
Event-Driven developments: A8 New Media (800 HK), Asia Cement China (743 HK), CPMC Holdings (906 HK), Fancl Corp (4921 JP), Sun Corp (6736 JP), Pacific Metals (5541 JP). 


Weekly Deals Digest (04 Aug) - Ola, Brainbees, A8, Asia Cement, CPMC, Fancl, Sun Corp, Heiwa

Japan

Cellebrite DI Ltd provides software solutions. The Company offers digital intelligence platform for legally sanctioned investigations that allows users to collect, review, analyze, and manage digital data across the investigative lifecycle. Cellebrite DI serves customers worldwide.

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Cellebrite DI (CLBT US)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Shinko Elec, Tsuruha/Welcia, Macromill, Sun Corp/Cellebrite, MicroStrategy

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

StubWorld: Sun Corp (6736 JP) Trading Cheap to Cellebrite (CLBT US)

Trading at a 48% discount to NAV; or 45% discount to its CLBT holding. Less clear is how, or if, this value materialises. I'd still look to enter...

David Blennerhassett

Sun Corp (6736) - The Future Is Bright

The True Wind Capital tender offer for 19.01% of Sun Corp (6736) got all the shares. That surprised me. But it likely means more than 50% ownership...

Travis Lundy

To Tender Or Not - Gauging The Future of Sun Corp (6736)

The Sun Corp Tender close nears (15 Aug). TWC is aiming to buy at least 5% but up to 19%. After recent volatility, 5% is an easier ask. But if you...

Travis Lundy

Weekly Deals Digest (04 Aug) - Ola, Brainbees, A8, Asia Cement, CPMC, Fancl, Sun Corp, Heiwa

Last week, notable developments occurred in Event-Driven (A8, Asia Cement China, CPMC, Fancl, Sun Corp, Heiwa Real Estate, Pacific Metals) and ECM...

Arun George

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