Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets, EM Spreads

Leandro Gubler

Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets

EM Spreads

Credit

<ul>
<li>Cemex delivered strong 3Q25 results with revenue and EBITDA growth, improved margins, and lower leverage, reflecting solid execution under Project Cutting Edge and continued balance sheet strengthening.</li>
<li>Management reaffirmed 2025 guidance, expecting stable profitability, strong free cash flow, and leverage within the 1.5x–2.0x range, supported by cost efficiencies, disciplined capex, and gradual 2026 demand recovery.</li>
<li>Cemex bonds trade rich versus peers, limiting near-term upside; we maintain a Neutral stance, finding best value in the 5.200% 2030s given yield, duration, and credit fundamentals.</li>
</ul>


Cemex delivered strong 3Q25 results with revenue and EBITDA growth, improved margins, and lower leverage, reflecting solid execution under Project Cutting Edge and continued balance sheet strengthening.
Management reaffirmed 2025 guidance, expecting stable profitability, strong free cash flow, and leverage within the 1.5x–2.0x range, supported by cost efficiencies, disciplined capex, and gradual 2026 demand recovery.
Cemex bonds trade rich versus peers, limiting near-term upside; we maintain a Neutral stance, finding best value in the 5.200% 2030s given yield, duration, and credit fundamentals.


Cemex 3Q25: Strong Results and Outlook Support Credit View

<ul>
<li>We maintain our Market Perform recommendation on Cemex. Current spreads do not offer an attractive entry point, particularly given the potential risk of U.S. tariffs on Mexican imports.</li>
<li>We would keep the name on our watchlist for potential investment should this risk of U.S. tariffs subside.</li>
<li>Within Cemex’s capital structure, we prefer the CEMEX (BBB-/BBB-) 5.20% 2030 notes, which trade wider than the Mexican sovereign, the EM BBB index, and comparable peers.</li>
</ul>


We maintain our Market Perform recommendation on Cemex. Current spreads do not offer an attractive entry point, particularly given the potential risk of U.S. tariffs on Mexican imports.
We would keep the name on our watchlist for potential investment should this risk of U.S. tariffs subside.
Within Cemex’s capital structure, we prefer the CEMEX (BBB-/BBB-) 5.20% 2030 notes, which trade wider than the Mexican sovereign, the EM BBB index, and comparable peers.


Cemex 4Q24: A Solid EM Credit, But Tariff Overhang Limits Near-Term Potential

<ul>
<li>Given the scale of these trade flows, any imposition of tariffs by the U.S. could create significant ripple effects on Mexico’s economic growth, investment climate, and employment</li>
<li>In LTM September 2024, Cemex generated ~31% of its revenues in Mexico and 31% in the U.S., while 44% of its EBITDA came from Mexico and 29% from the U.S</li>
<li>The U.S. market represents a meaningful portion of Pemex’s crude exports. In 2024, the company exported 460 kbd, accounting for 57.1% of total exports and 26.5% of total production</li>
</ul>


Given the scale of these trade flows, any imposition of tariffs by the U.S. could create significant ripple effects on Mexico’s economic growth, investment climate, and employment
In LTM September 2024, Cemex generated ~31% of its revenues in Mexico and 31% in the U.S., while 44% of its EBITDA came from Mexico and 29% from the U.S
The U.S. market represents a meaningful portion of Pemex’s crude exports. In 2024, the company exported 460 kbd, accounting for 57.1% of total exports and 26.5% of total production


U.S. Tariffs and Their Potential Impact on Cemex and Pemex

<ul>
<li>The LatAm Corporate Index tightened by 12 basis points (bps) to 306 bps in the week ending on Friday, January 31, 2025.</li>
<li>U.S. Treasuries saw decreases, with the 10-year yield down 11 bps to 4.51% and the 5-year yield also down 11 bps to 4.31%.</li>
<li>We initiated coverage on Suzano with a Market Perform outlook, Sheinbaum unveiled an energy reform, YPF completed its $327 million acquisition of Mobil, and Cemex finalized its $950 million divestment. </li>
</ul>


The LatAm Corporate Index tightened by 12 basis points (bps) to 306 bps in the week ending on Friday, January 31, 2025.
U.S. Treasuries saw decreases, with the 10-year yield down 11 bps to 4.51% and the 5-year yield also down 11 bps to 4.31%.
We initiated coverage on Suzano with a Market Perform outlook, Sheinbaum unveiled an energy reform, YPF completed its $327 million acquisition of Mobil, and Cemex finalized its $950 million divestment. 


<ul>
<li>The LatAm Corporate Index tightened by 3 basis points (bps) to 319 bps in the week ending on Friday, January 24, 2025.</li>
<li>U.S. Treasuries saw modest increases, with the 10-year yield up 2 bps to 4.64% and the 5-year yield also up 2 bps to 4.45%.</li>
<li>Cemex – Mexico Construction Key Indicators, YPF/Vista - Shale Boom Drives Argentina’s Energy Trade Surplus.</li>
</ul>


The LatAm Corporate Index tightened by 3 basis points (bps) to 319 bps in the week ending on Friday, January 24, 2025.
U.S. Treasuries saw modest increases, with the 10-year yield up 2 bps to 4.64% and the 5-year yield also up 2 bps to 4.45%.
Cemex – Mexico Construction Key Indicators, YPF/Vista - Shale Boom Drives Argentina’s Energy Trade Surplus.


Mexico

Cemex SAB de CV is a building products company. The Company produces, distributes, and markets cement, ready-mix concrete, aggregates, and related building materials. Cemex operates throughout the Americas, Europe, Africa, the Middle East, and Asia.

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Cemex SAB de CV (CEMEXCPO MM)

Cemex 3Q25: Strong Results and Outlook Support Credit View

Cemex reports strong 3Q25 results, reaffirms 2025 guidance, and bonds trade rich compared to peers, maintaining a Neutral stance.

Leandro Gubler

Cemex 4Q24: A Solid EM Credit, But Tariff Overhang Limits Near-Term Potential

Maintain Market Perform on Cemex. Watchlist for investment if tariff risk subsides. Prefer CEMEX 5.20% 2030 notes in capital structure.

Leandro Gubler

U.S. Tariffs and Their Potential Impact on Cemex and Pemex

Imposition of U.S. tariffs on Mexico could have significant economic impacts, particularly on companies like Cemex and Pemex with substantial...

Leandro Gubler

EM Spreads - Weekly News & Views

LatAm Corporate Index tightens, U.S. Treasuries decrease, key market updates include Suzano, Sheinbaum's energy reform, YPF acquisition, and Cemex...

Leandro Gubler

EM Spreads – Weekly News & Views

LatAm Corporate Index tightens, U.S. Treasuries see modest increases, Cemex and YPF/Vista drive Mexico and Argentina's economic indicators.

Leandro Gubler

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Cemex 3Q25: Strong Results and Outlook Support Credit View

​Cemex reports strong 3Q25 results, reaffirms 2025 guidance, and bonds trade rich compared to peers, maintaining a Neutral stance.

Leandro Gubler

Cemex 4Q24: A Solid EM Credit, But Tariff Overhang Limits Near-Term Potential

​Maintain Market Perform on Cemex. Watchlist for investment if tariff risk subsides. Prefer CEMEX 5.20% 2030 notes in capital structure.

Leandro Gubler

U.S. Tariffs and Their Potential Impact on Cemex and Pemex

​Imposition of U.S. tariffs on Mexico could have significant economic impacts, particularly on companies like Cemex and Pemex with substantial...

Leandro Gubler

EM Spreads - Weekly News & Views

​LatAm Corporate Index tightens, U.S. Treasuries decrease, key market updates include Suzano, Sheinbaum's energy reform, YPF acquisition, and Cemex...

Leandro Gubler

EM Spreads – Weekly News & Views

​LatAm Corporate Index tightens, U.S. Treasuries see modest increases, Cemex and YPF/Vista drive Mexico and Argentina's economic indicators.

Leandro Gubler

Cemex reports strong 3Q25 results, reaffirms 2025 guidance, and bonds trade rich compared to peers, maintaining a Neutral stance.

Maintain Market Perform on Cemex. Watchlist for investment if tariff risk subsides. Prefer CEMEX 5.20% 2030 notes in capital structure.

Imposition of U.S. tariffs on Mexico could have significant economic impacts, particularly on companies like Cemex and Pemex with substantial...

LatAm Corporate Index tightens, U.S. Treasuries decrease, key market updates include Suzano, Sheinbaum's energy reform, YPF acquisition, and Cemex...

LatAm Corporate Index tightens, U.S. Treasuries see modest increases, Cemex and YPF/Vista drive Mexico and Argentina's economic indicators.