Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets, EM Spreads

Leandro Gubler

Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets

EM Spreads

Credit

<ul>
<li>
Resilient Financials: 4Q25 revenue rose 10.6% and EBITDA 15.7%, driving net leverage down to 2.2x, though valuation caps upside as bonds trade near LTM tights.</li>
<li>
Shareholder Priority: Management prioritizes dividends and buybacks over accelerated deleveraging, using bank funding for maturities, which limits near-term balance sheet repair and spread compression.</li>
<li>
Defensive Positioning: We maintain a Neutral rating, favoring the 2029 notes for protection, as longer-duration bonds offer insufficient compensation for U.S.-Mexico trade risks and volatility.</li>
</ul>



Resilient Financials: 4Q25 revenue rose 10.6% and EBITDA 15.7%, driving net leverage down to 2.2x, though valuation caps upside as bonds trade near LTM tights.

Shareholder Priority: Management prioritizes dividends and buybacks over accelerated deleveraging, using bank funding for maturities, which limits near-term balance sheet repair and spread compression.

Defensive Positioning: We maintain a Neutral rating, favoring the 2029 notes for protection, as longer-duration bonds offer insufficient compensation for U.S.-Mexico trade risks and volatility.


Cemex 4Q25: Entering 2026 from a Stronger Position

<ul>
<li>Cemex delivered strong 3Q25 results with revenue and EBITDA growth, improved margins, and lower leverage, reflecting solid execution under Project Cutting Edge and continued balance sheet strengthening.</li>
<li>Management reaffirmed 2025 guidance, expecting stable profitability, strong free cash flow, and leverage within the 1.5x–2.0x range, supported by cost efficiencies, disciplined capex, and gradual 2026 demand recovery.</li>
<li>Cemex bonds trade rich versus peers, limiting near-term upside; we maintain a Neutral stance, finding best value in the 5.200% 2030s given yield, duration, and credit fundamentals.</li>
</ul>


Cemex delivered strong 3Q25 results with revenue and EBITDA growth, improved margins, and lower leverage, reflecting solid execution under Project Cutting Edge and continued balance sheet strengthening.
Management reaffirmed 2025 guidance, expecting stable profitability, strong free cash flow, and leverage within the 1.5x–2.0x range, supported by cost efficiencies, disciplined capex, and gradual 2026 demand recovery.
Cemex bonds trade rich versus peers, limiting near-term upside; we maintain a Neutral stance, finding best value in the 5.200% 2030s given yield, duration, and credit fundamentals.


Cemex 3Q25: Strong Results and Outlook Support Credit View

Covering the Mexican Economy, Actinver Research

Actinver

Covering the Mexican Economy

Actinver Research

Actinver is a mexican leading financial group, that generates well being for individuals and companies through advisory services that provides investment management to maintain and grow their wealth.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The World Cup tailwind might prove to be less positive than previously expected, and there might be some overhang risks in 2H26.</li>
<li>For another quarter, we are overall below consensus, yet the gap is lower vs. in the previous 2 quarters.</li>
<li>Amid some PT updates to the downside, we update our FY26 year-end and 12M MEXBOL PTs to 71,000 and 75,500, respectively (2.5% lower on average).</li>
</ul>


The World Cup tailwind might prove to be less positive than previously expected, and there might be some overhang risks in 2H26.
For another quarter, we are overall below consensus, yet the gap is lower vs. in the previous 2 quarters.
Amid some PT updates to the downside, we update our FY26 year-end and 12M MEXBOL PTs to 71,000 and 75,500, respectively (2.5% lower on average).


Actinver Research - Mexico Equity Research: 2Q25 Preview

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We had a near-term bullish outlook on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) from 4/22/25 to 11/18/25.</li>
<li>After being near-term neutral for a week, we flipped back to bullish in our 11/25/25 Compass, all while maintaining our intermediate-term bullish outlook (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $135.70 on ACWI-US continue to hold. </li>
</ul>


We had a near-term bullish outlook on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) from 4/22/25 to 11/18/25.
After being near-term neutral for a week, we flipped back to bullish in our 11/25/25 Compass, all while maintaining our intermediate-term bullish outlook (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $135.70 on ACWI-US continue to hold. 


"Lockout Rally" Underway; Downgrading China to Market Weight; Weak U.S. Dollar Is Risk-On Signal

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.</li>
<li>In our prior Int'l Compass (Oct. 16) we discussed how the pullback was testing the uptrend, and we were buyers; this worked out well with indexes back at all-time highs.</li>
<li>Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S. remain our only overweights, but India is becoming more attractive as well -- add selective exposure. Many buy ideas highlighted in these countries.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.
In our prior Int'l Compass (Oct. 16) we discussed how the pullback was testing the uptrend, and we were buyers; this worked out well with indexes back at all-time highs.
Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S. remain our only overweights, but India is becoming more attractive as well -- add selective exposure. Many buy ideas highlighted in these countries.


India Finally Showing Signs of Life; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.

Mexico

Cemex SAB de CV is a building products company. The Company produces, distributes, and markets cement, ready-mix concrete, aggregates, and related building materials. Cemex operates throughout the Americas, Europe, Africa, the Middle East, and Asia.

Price Gauge
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Cemex SAB de CV (CEMEXCPO MM)

Cemex 4Q25: Entering 2026 from a Stronger Position

Cemex posts strong 4Q25 results, but we hold Neutral as tight spreads and shareholder-focused capital allocation limit upside, favoring defensive...

Leandro Gubler

Cemex 3Q25: Strong Results and Outlook Support Credit View

Cemex reports strong 3Q25 results, reaffirms 2025 guidance, and bonds trade rich compared to peers, maintaining a Neutral stance.

Leandro Gubler

Actinver Research - Mexico Equity Research: 2Q25 Preview

The World Cup tailwind might prove to be less positive than previously expected, and there might be some overhang risks in 2H26.For another...

Actinver

"Lockout Rally" Underway; Downgrading China to Market Weight; Weak U.S. Dollar Is Risk-On Signal

"Lockout Rally" Underway $ACWI; Downgrading China $MCHI $FXI to Market Weight; U.S. Dollar (DXY) Providing Significant Risk-On Signal. Remain...

Vermilion Research

India Finally Showing Signs of Life; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.

India's $SENSEX Finally Showing Signs of Life; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI; Actionable...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Cemex 4Q25: Entering 2026 from a Stronger Position

Cemex posts strong 4Q25 results, but we hold Neutral as tight spreads and shareholder-focused capital allocation limit upside, favoring defensive...

Leandro Gubler

Cemex 3Q25: Strong Results and Outlook Support Credit View

​Cemex reports strong 3Q25 results, reaffirms 2025 guidance, and bonds trade rich compared to peers, maintaining a Neutral stance.

Leandro Gubler

Actinver Research - Mexico Equity Research: 2Q25 Preview

The World Cup tailwind might prove to be less positive than previously expected, and there might be some overhang risks in 2H26.For another...

Actinver

"Lockout Rally" Underway; Downgrading China to Market Weight; Weak U.S. Dollar Is Risk-On Signal

"Lockout Rally" Underway $ACWI; Downgrading China $MCHI $FXI to Market Weight; U.S. Dollar (DXY) Providing Significant Risk-On Signal. Remain...

Vermilion Research

India Finally Showing Signs of Life; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.

India's $SENSEX Finally Showing Signs of Life; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI; Actionable...

Vermilion Research

Cemex reports strong 3Q25 results, reaffirms 2025 guidance, and bonds trade rich compared to peers, maintaining a Neutral stance.