Covering the Mexican Economy, Actinver Research

Actinver

Covering the Mexican Economy

Actinver Research

Actinver is a mexican leading financial group, that generates well being for individuals and companies through advisory services that provides investment management to maintain and grow their wealth.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Total revenues decreased by 5% to US$3.8 Bn, while EBITDA dropped 3% (or +3% on a like-to-like basis) to US$681 M, slightly above the consensus estimate of US$673 M and slightly below our US$692 M estimate.</li>
<li>On the other hand, the net profit of US$48 M compares positively to the US$441 M net loss in 4Q23, while in 2024, the company reached a US$939 M net profit, a record level for CEMEX.</li>
<li>CEMEX's EBITDA margin during the quarter was 17.9% (vs. 17.5% in 4Q23), implying a 0.4 pp.</li>
</ul>


Total revenues decreased by 5% to US$3.8 Bn, while EBITDA dropped 3% (or +3% on a like-to-like basis) to US$681 M, slightly above the consensus estimate of US$673 M and slightly below our US$692 M estimate.
On the other hand, the net profit of US$48 M compares positively to the US$441 M net loss in 4Q23, while in 2024, the company reached a US$939 M net profit, a record level for CEMEX.
CEMEX's EBITDA margin during the quarter was 17.9% (vs. 17.5% in 4Q23), implying a 0.4 pp.


Actinver Research - CEMEX: Reaching a record level in Net Income in 2024 (Quick View)

<ul>
<li>CEMEX (Outperform): today the company concludes the sale of its Dominican Republic assets announced previously on August 2024.</li>
<li>The net proceeds are close to US$950 M, which is aligned with the company’s strategy to improve its asset portfolio.</li>
<li>Please note that the Dominican Republic asset sales is part of a ~US$2.2 Bn divestments program identified by CEMEX (CX).</li>
</ul>


CEMEX (Outperform): today the company concludes the sale of its Dominican Republic assets announced previously on August 2024.
The net proceeds are close to US$950 M, which is aligned with the company’s strategy to improve its asset portfolio.
Please note that the Dominican Republic asset sales is part of a ~US$2.2 Bn divestments program identified by CEMEX (CX).


Actinver Research - CEMEX: Concludes Dominican Republic Assets Sale (Quick View)

<ul>
<li>Total revenues decreased by 6% to US$4.1 Bn, while EBITDA dropped 13% (or -9% on a like-to-like basis) to US$746 M, below the consensus estimate of US$813 M, and slightly below our US$765 M estimate.</li>
<li>On the other hand, the net profit of US$406 M compares positively vs. the US$126 M in 3Q23.</li>
<li>The higher net income was driven primarily by a lower effective tax rate and the gain from the sale of CEMEX's operations in Guatemala.</li>
</ul>


Total revenues decreased by 6% to US$4.1 Bn, while EBITDA dropped 13% (or -9% on a like-to-like basis) to US$746 M, below the consensus estimate of US$813 M, and slightly below our US$765 M estimate.
On the other hand, the net profit of US$406 M compares positively vs. the US$126 M in 3Q23.
The higher net income was driven primarily by a lower effective tax rate and the gain from the sale of CEMEX's operations in Guatemala.


Actinver Research - CEMEX 3Q24: Bad Weather Negatively Impacted Results (Quick View)

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We have discussed for weeks that we will need to see the SPX and Nasdaq 100 close below their 20-day MAs for 2-3 consecutive days in order to get cautious.</li>
<li>This still hasn't happened (short-term trend remains bullish). If we get 2-3 closes below the 20-dayMAs, next support would be 4983-5050 on SPX, $425-$433 on QQQ (gap supports from 2/22/24)</li>
<li>If some or all of these gaps remain unfilled, it is a sign that bulls remain in control. We are seeing a rotation into commodity Sectors, we highlight several buys</li>
</ul>


We have discussed for weeks that we will need to see the SPX and Nasdaq 100 close below their 20-day MAs for 2-3 consecutive days in order to get cautious.
This still hasn't happened (short-term trend remains bullish). If we get 2-3 closes below the 20-dayMAs, next support would be 4983-5050 on SPX, $425-$433 on QQQ (gap supports from 2/22/24)
If some or all of these gaps remain unfilled, it is a sign that bulls remain in control. We are seeing a rotation into commodity Sectors, we highlight several buys


Upgrading Materials to Market Weight; Rotation into Commodity Sectors; SPX/NDX Holding Above Support

Oil & Natural Gas Corporation / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to show signs of bottoming as it has held above our $37-$37.50 line-in-the-sand. </li>
<li>Major 1+ year resistance on the EEM-US is at $42, and a breakout would mean the bottom is in (and would be a buy signal).</li>
<li>Favor EM over EAFE due to 2.5-year downtrend reversal in the EAFE vs. EM ratio. Top Overweights: Taiwan, India, Greece; Attractive EM Sectors: Energy, Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Financials</li>
</ul>


MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to show signs of bottoming as it has held above our $37-$37.50 line-in-the-sand. 
Major 1+ year resistance on the EEM-US is at $42, and a breakout would mean the bottom is in (and would be a buy signal).
Favor EM over EAFE due to 2.5-year downtrend reversal in the EAFE vs. EM ratio. Top Overweights: Taiwan, India, Greece; Attractive EM Sectors: Energy, Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Financials


MSCI Emerging Market Index Testing 1+ Year Resistance; Favor EM over EAFE; Top EM Buys Highlighted

Mexico

Cemex SAB de CV is a building products company. The Company produces, distributes, and markets cement, ready-mix concrete, aggregates, and related building materials. Cemex operates throughout the Americas, Europe, Africa, the Middle East, and Asia.

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Cemex SAB de CV (CEMEXCPO MM)

Actinver Research - CEMEX: Reaching a record level in Net Income in 2024 (Quick View)

Total revenues decreased by 5% to US$3.8 Bn, while EBITDA dropped 3% (or +3% on a like-to-like basis) to US$681 M, slightly above the consensus...

Actinver

Actinver Research - CEMEX: Concludes Dominican Republic Assets Sale (Quick View)

CEMEX (Outperform): today the company concludes the sale of its Dominican Republic assets announced previously on August 2024.

Actinver

Actinver Research - CEMEX 3Q24: Bad Weather Negatively Impacted Results (Quick View)

Total revenues decreased by 6% to US$4.1 Bn, while EBITDA dropped 13% (or -9% on a like-to-like basis) to US$746 M, below the consensus estimate of...

Actinver

Upgrading Materials to Market Weight; Rotation into Commodity Sectors; SPX/NDX Holding Above Support

Upgrading Materials $XLB to Market Weight; Rotation into Commodity Sectors $XLE. $SPX and $QQQ holding above gap supports at 4983-5050 and $425...

Vermilion Research

MSCI Emerging Market Index Testing 1+ Year Resistance; Favor EM over EAFE; Top EM Buys Highlighted

MSCI EM Index $EEM Testing 1+ Year Resistance; Favor EM over EAFE $EFA. Top EM Country Overweights: Taiwan, India, Greece; Attractive EM Sectors:...

Vermilion Research

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