Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Chevron is building toward a financial target that could redefine how investors view one of the world’s largest oil companies.</li><li>By 2030, management expects annual adjusted free cash flow to reach approximately $29 billion to $30 billion under a $70 Brent oil-price assumption, representing annualized growth of more than 10%.</li><li>The plan is not based solely on higher commodity prices.</li></ul>

Chevron is building toward a financial target that could redefine how investors view one of the world’s largest oil companies.By 2030, management expects annual adjusted free cash flow to reach approximately $29 billion to $30 billion under a $70 Brent oil-price assumption, representing annualized growth of more than 10%.The plan is not based solely on higher commodity prices.

Chevron’s $30 Billion Cash Machine: Triumph Or Final Oil Boom?

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Ex-President Nicolas Maduro and his wife were captured in a US law-enforcement maneuver supported by 150 warplanes. They are to be produced in NewYork facing charges of narco-terrorism and drug-trafficking. </li>
<li>US will run Venezuela (especially its oil industry), but the existing authorities will largely remain in place (avoiding the mistake of Iraq, where 250,000 Ba'athists were banned, with deleterious consequences). </li>
<li>After initial volatility, we expect Brent crude prices to decline, benefitting Trump politically. Chevron will be the winner in Venezuela, Exxon in Guyana. China, Cuba, PDVSA relative losers.  </li>
</ul>


Ex-President Nicolas Maduro and his wife were captured in a US law-enforcement maneuver supported by 150 warplanes. They are to be produced in NewYork facing charges of narco-terrorism and drug-trafficking. 
US will run Venezuela (especially its oil industry), but the existing authorities will largely remain in place (avoiding the mistake of Iraq, where 250,000 Ba'athists were banned, with deleterious consequences). 
After initial volatility, we expect Brent crude prices to decline, benefitting Trump politically. Chevron will be the winner in Venezuela, Exxon in Guyana. China, Cuba, PDVSA relative losers.  


Venezuela/US: Avoiding the Iraq Mistake, to Stabilise the Country and Gain the Oil

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>On Election Day, the US faces a Dead Heat. Realclearpolitics predicts a Trump victory, The Economist a narrow Harris win (270-268), similar to fivethirtyeight's tally. Turmoil amid slow counting likely.</li>
<li>A Trump win would be good for conventional energy, banks, PE (via deregulation). Lower oil prices and a 60% tariff on imports from China would benefit Japan, India, Korea, Vietnam. </li>
<li>A Harris win would would be good for housing/property, green energy, semiconductors, negative for equities (as corporate &amp; capital-gains taxes rise) and retailers (anti-price-gouging!). Taiwan, Ukraine, UK, France would gain. </li>
</ul>


On Election Day, the US faces a Dead Heat. Realclearpolitics predicts a Trump victory, The Economist a narrow Harris win (270-268), similar to fivethirtyeight's tally. Turmoil amid slow counting likely.
A Trump win would be good for conventional energy, banks, PE (via deregulation). Lower oil prices and a 60% tariff on imports from China would benefit Japan, India, Korea, Vietnam. 
A Harris win would would be good for housing/property, green energy, semiconductors, negative for equities (as corporate &amp; capital-gains taxes rise) and retailers (anti-price-gouging!). Taiwan, Ukraine, UK, France would gain. 


US: Election Is a Dead Heat, but There'll Be Very Different Winners from Each Outcome

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)</a>, S&amp;P400 Index and S&amp;P600 Index will be announced after market close on Friday.</li>
<li>The conclusions of the market consultation to change the index weighting methodology for the Select Sector Indices to reduce concentration and avoid reverse turnover should also be announced.</li>
<li>Changes in the index weighting methodology will result in a round-trip trade of US$35bn across the Select Sector indices. The largest turnover is in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/consumer-staples-select-sector-spdr-fund" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27536:1" rel="noopener">XLP</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/technology-select-sector-spdr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27543:1" rel="noopener">XLK</a>.</li>
</ul>


The changes to the S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX), S&amp;P400 Index and S&amp;P600 Index will be announced after market close on Friday.
The conclusions of the market consultation to change the index weighting methodology for the Select Sector Indices to reduce concentration and avoid reverse turnover should also be announced.
Changes in the index weighting methodology will result in a round-trip trade of US$35bn across the Select Sector indices. The largest turnover is in the XLP and XLK.


Select Sector Indices - Updated Flows as Round-Trip Trade Hits US$35bn

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.</li>
<li>The index is reviewed quarterly. The next review will be in June 2024 and the evaluation date for the rankings for the constituent selection process is 6th June 2024.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs and Potential DELs for the June 2024 index rebal event and the intra-review ADDs/DELs.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
The index is reviewed quarterly. The next review will be in June 2024 and the evaluation date for the rankings for the constituent selection process is 6th June 2024.
In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs and Potential DELs for the June 2024 index rebal event and the intra-review ADDs/DELs.


Quiddity Leaderboard S&P 500 June 2024 - Minimal Changes Expected but Intrareview Changes Possible

United States

Chevron Corporation is an integrated energy company with operations in countries located around the world.  The Company produces and transports crude oil and natural gas.  Chevron also refines, markets, and distributes fuels as well as is involved in chemical operations, mining operations, power generation and energy services.

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Chevron Corp (CVX US)

Chevron’s $30 Billion Cash Machine: Triumph Or Final Oil Boom?

Chevron is building toward a financial target that could redefine how investors view one of the world’s largest oil companies. By 2030, management...

Baptista Research

Venezuela/US: Avoiding the Iraq Mistake, to Stabilise the Country and Gain the Oil

Maduro captured in US law-enforcement maneuver: US to control Venezuela's oil industry, but existing authorities to remain. Oil prices to decline,...

Prasenjit K. Basu

US: Election Is a Dead Heat, but There'll Be Very Different Winners from Each Outcome

RCP predicts a big Trump win, TheEconomist a narrow Harris one. Turnout key for Trump; his win would lower oil prices & hit China, benefitting the...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Select Sector Indices - Updated Flows as Round-Trip Trade Hits US$35bn

US$300bn tracks the Select Sector Indices. Implementation of proposed changes will set off a US$35bn trade. Apple could be bought by multiple...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard S&P 500 June 2024 - Minimal Changes Expected but Intrareview Changes Possible

For the moment, there are 1-2 changes expected in Q2 for the S&P500. They could both be intra-review changes but timing is likely to be late. So...

Travis Lundy

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Chevron’s $30 Billion Cash Machine: Triumph Or Final Oil Boom?

Chevron is building toward a financial target that could redefine how investors view one of the world’s largest oil companies. By 2030, management...

Baptista Research

Venezuela/US: Avoiding the Iraq Mistake, to Stabilise the Country and Gain the Oil

​Maduro captured in US law-enforcement maneuver: US to control Venezuela's oil industry, but existing authorities to remain. Oil prices to decline,...

Prasenjit K. Basu

US: Election Is a Dead Heat, but There'll Be Very Different Winners from Each Outcome

RCP predicts a big Trump win, TheEconomist a narrow Harris one. Turnout key for Trump; his win would lower oil prices & hit China, benefitting the...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Select Sector Indices - Updated Flows as Round-Trip Trade Hits US$35bn

US$300bn tracks the Select Sector Indices. Implementation of proposed changes will set off a US$35bn trade. Apple could be bought by multiple...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard S&P 500 June 2024 - Minimal Changes Expected but Intrareview Changes Possible

For the moment, there are 1-2 changes expected in Q2 for the S&P500. They could both be intra-review changes but timing is likely to be late. So...

Travis Lundy

Maduro captured in US law-enforcement maneuver: US to control Venezuela's oil industry, but existing authorities to remain. Oil prices to decline,...