IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 20 May, Bloomberg <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-20/japan-s-nikkon-said-to-weigh-going-private-with-us-funds-to-bid?embedded-checkout=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported</a> that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkon-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17346:1" rel="noopener">Nikkon Holdings (9072 JP)</a> is considering going private and preparing to hold a first-round bidding round in early June. </li>
<li>The shareholder structure is conducive to a privatisation bid as two activists (Farallon and Oasis) hold 51.6 million shares (44.23% ownership ratio). </li>
<li>Bain Capital, Warburg Pincus and Blackstone are expected to take part in the auction. My analysis suggests an offer price of at least 6,200 (7.4% above the last close).</li>
</ul>


On 20 May, Bloomberg reported that Nikkon Holdings (9072 JP) is considering going private and preparing to hold a first-round bidding round in early June. 
The shareholder structure is conducive to a privatisation bid as two activists (Farallon and Oasis) hold 51.6 million shares (44.23% ownership ratio). 
Bain Capital, Warburg Pincus and Blackstone are expected to take part in the auction. My analysis suggests an offer price of at least 6,200 (7.4% above the last close).


NIKKON Holdings (9072 JP): Thoughts on a Potential Privatisation Offer

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nissin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12749:1" rel="noopener">Nissin Corp (9066 JP)</a> has recommended a Bain-sponsored MBO tender offer of JPY8,100 per share, a 27.6% premium to the last close. </li>
<li>The offer is attractive compared to peer multiples and historical trading ranges. However, it is light compared to precedent transaction multiples. </li>
<li>While the offer represents an all-time high, it is below the midpoint of the target IFA DCF valuation range. A counterbid cannot be ruled out. </li>
</ul>



Nissin Corp (9066 JP) has recommended a Bain-sponsored MBO tender offer of JPY8,100 per share, a 27.6% premium to the last close. 
The offer is attractive compared to peer multiples and historical trading ranges. However, it is light compared to precedent transaction multiples. 
While the offer represents an all-time high, it is below the midpoint of the target IFA DCF valuation range. A counterbid cannot be ruled out. 


Nissin Corp (9066 JP): Bain-Sponsored MBO at JPY8,100 Is Arguably Light

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>The deal price is higher than the Bloomberg article insinuated. The closing date is earlier than the Bloomberg article suggested. But that doesn't mean it's enough. </li>
<li>The Large ToSTNeT-3 buyback last year changed the shareholder structure significantly, but many holders who sold are unknown. I would expect they were cross-holders. </li>
<li>For that, this deal is NOT a done deal. There may be games played on this deal. </li>
</ul>


The deal price is higher than the Bloomberg article insinuated. The closing date is earlier than the Bloomberg article suggested. But that doesn't mean it's enough. 
The Large ToSTNeT-3 buyback last year changed the shareholder structure significantly, but many holders who sold are unknown. I would expect they were cross-holders. 
For that, this deal is NOT a done deal. There may be games played on this deal. 


[Japan M&A] Bain Deal for Nissin (9066) Is Still Light Vs Comparable Deals

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nissin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12749:1" rel="noopener">Nissin Corp (9066 JP)</a> shares were up 10.3% based on a <a href="https://news.bloomberglaw.com/antitrust/japans-nissin-corp-said-to-plan-bain-backed-management-buyout" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bloomberg report</a> that it would be privatised through a Bain-sponsored MBO. </li>
<li>The deal is expected to exceed JPY100 billion. Assuming this refers to a market cap, the implied offer price is around JPY6,500 (21.5% premium to last close).</li>
<li>While the rumoured offer represents an all-time high share price, it is light compared to precedent and peer multiples. A long-dated offer makes it susceptible to a counterbid. </li>
</ul>



Nissin Corp (9066 JP) shares were up 10.3% based on a Bloomberg report that it would be privatised through a Bain-sponsored MBO. 
The deal is expected to exceed JPY100 billion. Assuming this refers to a market cap, the implied offer price is around JPY6,500 (21.5% premium to last close).
While the rumoured offer represents an all-time high share price, it is light compared to precedent and peer multiples. A long-dated offer makes it susceptible to a counterbid. 


Nissin Corp (9066 JP): A Rumoured Bain-Sponsored MBO?

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nidec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7245:1" rel="noopener">Nidec Corp (6594 JP)</a> bid ¥11,000 for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/makino-milling-machine-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5200:1" rel="noopener">Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP)</a> in December, saying it expected to launch on 4-April. It launched its ¥11,000 bid on 4-April. </li>
<li>A Nikkei article in March suggested Makino had found multiple competing bidders, some who had put in "legally binding bids." No news on those yet, but we have a month.</li>
<li>Earnings are 9-May. Strategy on timing for Makino differs according to its desired outcome. It has to opine on Nidec's bid by about 18 April. Be long. Carry 🍿🍿🍿 .</li>
</ul>



Nidec Corp (6594 JP) bid ¥11,000 for Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP) in December, saying it expected to launch on 4-April. It launched its ¥11,000 bid on 4-April. 
A Nikkei article in March suggested Makino had found multiple competing bidders, some who had put in "legally binding bids." No news on those yet, but we have a month.
Earnings are 9-May. Strategy on timing for Makino differs according to its desired outcome. It has to opine on Nidec's bid by about 18 April. Be long. Carry 🍿🍿🍿 .


Nidec Launches on Makino Milling (6135) - Others Presumably Wait In the Wings

Japan

Chilled & Frozen Logistics Holdings Co., Ltd. is a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides freight transportation and trucking services.

Chilled & Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP)

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Chilled & Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP)

NIKKON Holdings (9072 JP): Thoughts on a Potential Privatisation Offer

Bloomberg reported that Nikkon is considering going private and preparing to hold a first-round bidding round in early June. My analysis suggests...

Arun George

Nissin Corp (9066 JP): Bain-Sponsored MBO at JPY8,100 Is Arguably Light

While the offer represents an all-time high, it is below the midpoint of the target IFA DCF valuation range and precedent transaction multiples. A...

Arun George

[Japan M&A] Bain Deal for Nissin (9066) Is Still Light Vs Comparable Deals

The Bain deal for Nissin comes higher than expected but is still light. Mgmt EBITDA forecasts are decent/strong. That makes this too cheap. I...

Travis Lundy

Nissin Corp (9066 JP): A Rumoured Bain-Sponsored MBO?

While the rumoured offer represents an all-time high share price, it is light compared to precedent and peer multiples. A long-dated offer makes it...

Arun George

Nidec Launches on Makino Milling (6135) - Others Presumably Wait In the Wings

Nidec's petition to keep Makino Milling from launching a poison pill option defensemeans Nidec either has to negotiate, or the hostile process...

Travis Lundy

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