Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nidec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7245:1" rel="noopener">Nidec Corp (6594 JP)</a> in late December proposed an unsolicited takeover of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/makino-milling-machine-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5200:1" rel="noopener">Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP)</a>, with a 3-month delay before launching a Tender Offer. </li>
<li>Makino has asked for an extension to the start. Nidec has said no. Makino is going about this the wrong way. Makino needs to assume Nidec thought this through.</li>
<li>Makino needs to open up the process to other bidders, and investors can help. </li>
</ul>



Nidec Corp (6594 JP) in late December proposed an unsolicited takeover of Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP), with a 3-month delay before launching a Tender Offer. 
Makino has asked for an extension to the start. Nidec has said no. Makino is going about this the wrong way. Makino needs to assume Nidec thought this through.
Makino needs to open up the process to other bidders, and investors can help. 


Makino Milling (6135) - Trading Through Terms, May Need Investor Pushing

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/honda-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:154:1" rel="noopener">Honda (7267 JP) </a> announced a HUGE ¥1.1trln buyback. At ~¥1500/share, this would increase EPS by 17+%.  Buy the shares in the low ¥1,400s. Expect this to be a range trade.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-henlius-biotech-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27888:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)</a>'s Circular is now out. Hoome straight and done deal. </li>
<li>Murakami-San has started selling <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/exedy-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6516:1" rel="noopener">Exedy Corp (7278 JP)</a>, earlier than expected. Best to get out first, ask questions later.</li>
</ul>



Honda (7267 JP)  announced a HUGE ¥1.1trln buyback. At ~¥1500/share, this would increase EPS by 17+%.  Buy the shares in the low ¥1,400s. Expect this to be a range trade.

Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)'s Circular is now out. Hoome straight and done deal. 
Murakami-San has started selling Exedy Corp (7278 JP), earlier than expected. Best to get out first, ask questions later.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Honda, Shanghai Henlius, Exedy, Arcadium Lithium

Nec Networks & System Integr / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>I tally 51 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>Four new deals this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/makino-milling-machine-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5200:1" rel="noopener">Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP)</a>'s hostile Offer; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vcredit-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27143:1" rel="noopener">VCredit Holdings Ltd (2003 HK)</a>'s takeunder; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vesync" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31067:1" rel="noopener">Vesync (2148 HK)</a>'s Scheme, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pentamaster-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31099:1" rel="noopener">Pentamaster International (1665 HK)</a>'s Scheme.</li>
<li>Key updates/news took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-henlius-biotech-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27888:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/greatview-aseptic-packaging" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10802:1" rel="noopener">Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nec-networks-system-integr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16396:1" rel="noopener">Nec Networks &amp; System Integr (1973 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suntec-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:151:1" rel="noopener">Suntec REIT (SUN SP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 51 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Four new deals this week: Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP)'s hostile Offer; VCredit Holdings Ltd (2003 HK)'s takeunder; Vesync (2148 HK)'s Scheme, and Pentamaster International (1665 HK)'s Scheme.
Key updates/news took place on: Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK), Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK), Nec Networks &amp; System Integr (1973 JP), and Suntec REIT (SUN SP).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Makino, Henlius, GAPack, Nec Networks, Suntec REIT, VCredit, Pentamaster

<ul>
<li>This morning, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nidec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7245:1" rel="noopener">Nidec Corp (6594 JP)</a><a href="https://www.nidec.com/-/media/www-nidec-com/corporate/news/2024/1227-01/241227-01.pdf?rev=7584315209f9405784f3e2b127136708&amp;sc_lang=ja-JP" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> that it intended to launch a Tender Offer on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/makino-milling-machine-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5200:1" rel="noopener">Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP)</a> without the support of Makino management.</li>
<li>The same pattern as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takisawa-machine-tool-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7344:1" rel="noopener">Takisawa Machine Tool (6121 JP)</a>. Nidec decides, relying on the METI Guidelines for Corporate Takeovers for procedure, announces, and puts the onus on the Target to accept.</li>
<li>But shareholders should hope Makino Milling takes a page from the example provided by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chilled-frozen-logistics-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40987:1" rel="noopener">Chilled &amp; Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP)</a> back in spring 2024. This could get funky.</li>
</ul>


This morning, Nidec Corp (6594 JP)announced that it intended to launch a Tender Offer on Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP) without the support of Makino management.
The same pattern as Takisawa Machine Tool (6121 JP). Nidec decides, relying on the METI Guidelines for Corporate Takeovers for procedure, announces, and puts the onus on the Target to accept.
But shareholders should hope Makino Milling takes a page from the example provided by Chilled &amp; Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP) back in spring 2024. This could get funky.


Nidec Goes Hostile On Makino Milling at ¥11,000/Share

<ul>
<li>Logistics takeovers are hot this year. Any cutting-edge-of-efficiencies business in the space is likely to get a look. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trancom-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13043:1" rel="noopener">Trancom Co Ltd (9058 JP)</a> is one. </li>
<li>But while logistics assets put into bidding competition like Alps Logistics and Chilled &amp; Frozen get high EV/EBITDA multiples, MBO transactions without competition get done too cheaply.</li>
<li>Here again, an "Value Activist" "selling into the bid" to reinvest in the levered back end (at the takeover price). That tells you this deal is being done too cheaply.
</li>
</ul>


Logistics takeovers are hot this year. Any cutting-edge-of-efficiencies business in the space is likely to get a look. Trancom Co Ltd (9058 JP) is one. 
But while logistics assets put into bidding competition like Alps Logistics and Chilled &amp; Frozen get high EV/EBITDA multiples, MBO transactions without competition get done too cheaply.
Here again, an "Value Activist" "selling into the bid" to reinvest in the levered back end (at the takeover price). That tells you this deal is being done too cheaply.



Trancom (9058) - Another Bain MBO Done Too Cheaply Where "Activist" Dalton Rolls In To The Bid

Japan

Chilled & Frozen Logistics Holdings Co., Ltd. is a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides freight transportation and trucking services.

Chilled & Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP)

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Chilled & Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP)

Makino Milling (6135) - Trading Through Terms, May Need Investor Pushing

Makino Milling has 2.5mos left before Nidec launches. FY25 earnings will come out before the TOB ends, but Makino should be running a parallel...

Travis Lundy

Last Week in Event SPACE: Honda, Shanghai Henlius, Exedy, Arcadium Lithium

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Makino, Henlius, GAPack, Nec Networks, Suntec REIT, VCredit, Pentamaster

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Trancom (9058) - Another Bain MBO Done Too Cheaply Where "Activist" Dalton Rolls In To The Bid

Trancom provides logistics optimisation services to customers and logistics operators, plus logistics-related sites. Quite niche. The Founder/Bain...

Travis Lundy

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Makino Milling (6135) - Trading Through Terms, May Need Investor Pushing

Makino Milling has 2.5mos left before Nidec launches. FY25 earnings will come out before the TOB ends, but Makino should be running a parallel...

Travis Lundy

Last Week in Event SPACE: Honda, Shanghai Henlius, Exedy, Arcadium Lithium

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Makino, Henlius, GAPack, Nec Networks, Suntec REIT, VCredit, Pentamaster

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Nidec Goes Hostile On Makino Milling at ¥11,000/Share

Nidec intends a hostile early April TOB on Makino Milling to build out its machine tool portfolio. This could see an aggressive Makino response and...

Travis Lundy

Trancom (9058) - Another Bain MBO Done Too Cheaply Where "Activist" Dalton Rolls In To The Bid

Trancom provides logistics optimisation services to customers and logistics operators, plus logistics-related sites. Quite niche. The Founder/Bain...

Travis Lundy